SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

In the wake of the shortwave trough that passed through overnight, drier air will begin to filter over northwest parts of the forecast area today decreasing the coverage and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms some. However, PWATs will remain elevated varying from 0.80" over the Four Corners to 1.2" over southern and eastern areas.
These elevated PWATs, and storm motion toward the southeast off the high terrain, will continue the risk of flash flooding this afternoon and early evening for the recent burn scars of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Will continue the ongoing Flood Watch there. If flash flooding develops elsewhere today, it is expected to be isolated enough to preclude the need for a Flood Watch. High temperatures today should vary from a few degrees below 1991-2020 averages to around 7 degrees above with the greatest departures above the averages in the central valley.

The center of high pressure aloft will migrate from over southern AZ today to over southern NM on Sunday, allowing more dry air to filter over northern parts of the forecast area from the west. PWATs north of I-40 on Sunday should generally vary from 0.40-0.80", probably limiting thunderstorm coverage to isolated and focusing it over the high terrain. Further south, PWATs around 1-1.20" will enable scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the afternoon mainly over the mountains with a risk of localized heavy rainfall. Slow and erratic storm motion should prevent cells from making much progress over adjacent lowlands Sunday afternoon, but models do suggest a general drift toward the east or southeast, which would put the burn scars of the Sacramento Mountains at risk for flash flooding again. Both today and Sunday, stronger cells will be capable of wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph. With the high pressure system moving over the state on Sunday, high temperatures should vary from near 30-year averages to around 9 degrees above with readings near to a little above 100 degrees across east central and southeast areas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Any storms that develop Sunday afternoon should diminish with the loss of daytime heating Sunday evening. Relatively quiet conditions are expected again on Monday with mainly isolated activity, except scattered to numerous storms over Southwest Mountains. The upper high will start to shift eastward and center over Texas while dry air filters into the state from the east beneath the high. Dry air will also be shifting over northwest NM with west-southwesterly flow aloft. All-in-all, we should see surface dewpoints tumble Monday afternoon into the 30s across the north and perhaps even into ABQ, with 40s and low 50s across southern portions of the CWA Good news there is swamp coolers should work a bit better!

The upper high should stay centered over northwest/north central TX on Tuesday. The GFS wants to bring a weak shortwave around the NW side of the high resulting in increased precip across northwest and north central NM. This seems to be the outlier amongst deterministic and ensemble models. Rather, Tuesday should see a slight increase in activity focused over the high terrain.
The slight upward trend for precipitation will continue on Wednesday as well, but the bigger story for early next week will be the heat. With the decrease in precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures will soar. Temperatures climbing above 100 degrees are expected for the eastern plains as early as Sunday with more widespread triple digit heat expected Monday through Wednesday including across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. Heat advisories may be needed as early as Tuesday for the Chaves County Plains, then may expand Wednesday to the RGV.

Late next week, the upper high will meander back to the west, strengthen, and looks to center just north of the Four Corners.
Easterly flow around the upper high will help pull in moisture and increase precipitation chances areawide. Additionally, a backdoor cold front looks to shift into NM either Thurs or Fri and when this occurs, the increased moisture and upslope should more significantly increase precipitation chances.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to linger into the late night hours mainly over southern and west central areas, but should diminish by dawn. Scattered to isolated showers and storms are forecast to return on Saturday afternoon and evening mainly from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. Coverage will probably become numerous during mid to late afternoon along the central mountain chain and especially over southwest parts of the forecast area. Storm motions on Saturday will mostly be toward the east and southeast around 10-20 KT. Stronger storms on Saturday will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

The mid level high pressure system is forecast to track gradually eastward from over southern AZ today, to over southern NM on Sunday, then over northern or eastern TX Monday through Wednesday. There will be a continued risk of locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding mainly over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today as PWATs remain elevated, then drier air will filter over that area on Sunday when showers and thunderstorms will favor southwest parts of the fire weather forecast area. Monsoon moisture will then gradually increase with each day over the climatologically favored parts of western and north central NM Monday through midweek. During the latter half of the week the upper high is forecast to shift over the central Rockies, where it will steer one or two moist backdoor fronts into NM from the northeast with cooling temperatures and increasing thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity areawide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 94 65 93 60 / 20 20 0 0 Dulce........................... 90 50 88 47 / 20 20 5 0 Cuba............................ 88 58 88 56 / 20 30 10 5 Gallup.......................... 90 55 89 55 / 30 20 10 10 El Morro........................ 84 57 83 55 / 60 30 20 20 Grants.......................... 88 60 87 56 / 60 30 20 10 Quemado......................... 85 58 85 57 / 60 50 50 30 Magdalena....................... 86 64 87 63 / 70 50 20 20 Datil........................... 83 58 83 57 / 70 50 60 20 Reserve......................... 90 55 90 57 / 80 50 60 20 Glenwood........................ 93 66 94 65 / 80 50 60 20 Chama........................... 82 50 81 50 / 40 20 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 86 63 / 40 30 10 5 Pecos........................... 85 59 88 60 / 50 40 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 50 85 50 / 50 30 10 0 Red River....................... 75 48 76 47 / 60 30 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 44 80 42 / 70 30 20 0 Taos............................ 87 53 89 52 / 40 20 5 0 Mora............................ 81 53 85 54 / 60 30 10 0 Espanola........................ 92 60 94 60 / 20 30 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 86 62 89 62 / 30 40 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 60 92 60 / 30 30 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 68 95 67 / 30 40 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 67 96 68 / 20 40 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 67 98 66 / 20 40 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 68 96 67 / 30 30 5 5 Belen........................... 95 65 96 64 / 20 40 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 96 67 98 66 / 20 30 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 96 64 96 63 / 20 40 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 68 98 66 / 20 40 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 95 66 96 64 / 20 40 5 10 Placitas........................ 92 66 93 64 / 20 30 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 96 68 97 66 / 20 30 5 5 Socorro......................... 97 68 98 67 / 40 40 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 63 88 61 / 30 40 10 5 Tijeras......................... 88 63 90 63 / 30 40 10 10 Edgewood........................ 89 58 91 59 / 20 40 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 57 92 56 / 20 30 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 88 59 / 30 40 10 0 Mountainair..................... 88 60 89 60 / 30 40 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 87 60 90 60 / 40 40 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 90 65 93 67 / 40 30 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 80 59 85 61 / 60 30 40 10 Capulin......................... 82 56 88 59 / 50 20 10 0 Raton........................... 87 55 93 55 / 50 40 10 0 Springer........................ 88 55 94 56 / 50 30 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 83 55 89 57 / 50 30 10 0 Clayton......................... 90 65 96 66 / 20 20 10 0 Roy............................. 85 59 93 61 / 30 30 10 0 Conchas......................... 93 66 100 66 / 20 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 89 63 96 65 / 20 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 93 68 100 68 / 10 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 67 98 69 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 93 67 98 68 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 67 99 69 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 71 102 72 / 10 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 90 64 95 66 / 30 10 20 5 Elk............................. 88 60 92 63 / 50 20 30 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-226.