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FXUS65 KABQ 111723 AAB AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 235 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

A warmup continues today as high clouds begin to increase. The weather will start to change Tuesday, as clouds become more widespread and thicker and low level east winds over the eastern plains bring cooler temperatures there. A slow moving storm system will start to impact the region Tuesday night and will linger through Friday morning. Mountain snow and lowland rain and snow along with a few thunderstorms appear likely with daytime temperatures falling to about 5 to 15 degrees below normal for most locales by Thursday. The storm will exit the state by Friday night, with drier and warmer conditions expected for the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quiet day in store with zonal flow aloft and widespread high clouds persisting over the area. Temperatures will continue to warm today despite the clouds, with the exception being across portions of northeast NM due to a weak boundary pushing through the area this morning. All-in-all, temperatures will be near to a few degrees above normal today areawide. Tonight, similarly to this morning, temperatures will be quite cool due to the very dry boundary layer.
Tuesday will be the transition day before much wetter weather takes shape. The next storm system will be diving southward over the Great Basin and organizing into a closed low. Meanwhile, low level moisture will start advecting northward into the eastern plains.
Widespread high clouds will continue though will be gradually lowering with time. Overall, it will be a quiet day with near to above normal temperatures but more active weather will be knocking at the door.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

Low level east winds will bring moisture into eastern NM Tuesday night, where light precipitation as well as patchy fog are possible.

Models are tending to track the upper low somewhat farther west through AZ on Wednesday but the overall scenario of increasing moisture and chances for precipitation remain on track. Forecast 700 mb temperatures remain about -2 to -4 deg C as the upper low slowly crosses the region through Thursday. Also can't rule out a few thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday south of I-40.

There remains some variability in the path of the upper low, and the ECMWF in particular is farther north than the GFS. Overall, the low is now slower to exit and it is also shown to slide to the east or even northeast Thursday night and Friday before it takes the jog to the southeast on Friday night. Consequently, precipitation may take more time to taper off over eastern NM on Friday, and even slight chance pops are painted east of the Pecos Valley Friday evening before the upper low circulation drifts to the east of the CWA.

At this time, the greater snowfall amounts with this system appear to favor the higher peaks as well as northeast NM. There will likely be some surprises though given this system may not be very well behaved with the inconsistent path being forecast.

Overnight low temperatures will be above normal, and by Thursday and Friday highs will range from near normal in the far northwest to about 15 degrees cooler than normal over the east. Saturday and Sunday will see warmer and drier weather.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR prevails with bkn180-250 cirrus overhead. Light prevailing winds through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 235 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

Main fire weather concern over the next week will be poor ventilation. Quiet and relatively warm weather is in store for today and Tuesday as abundant high clouds pass overhead. A storm system will impact the state Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread rain and snow can be expected with snow levels around 6500 to 7000 feet (perhaps slightly lower across northeast NM). The heaviest precipitation totals are expected along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where rain or liquid equivalent totals may exceed one inch. Precipitation will come to an end from west to east late Thursday into Friday morning. Thereafter, quiet and dry weather will return for Friday and the weekend with ridging over the Desert Southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 47 23 51 30 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 48 13 51 23 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 47 18 46 25 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 52 16 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 53 17 54 25 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 54 16 50 24 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 58 22 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 53 28 52 30 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 55 24 52 26 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 63 22 59 26 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 64 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 13 46 21 / 0 0 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 45 28 44 30 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 51 26 47 28 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 21 45 24 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 44 12 45 18 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 45 2 43 14 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 46 12 47 21 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 52 23 47 23 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 51 22 52 27 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 47 26 47 29 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 23 49 28 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 30 51 34 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 29 52 33 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 26 53 31 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 28 52 31 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 52 22 54 29 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 51 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 51 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 51 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 52 22 53 28 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 48 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 29 51 32 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 54 27 56 32 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 27 47 29 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 48 28 49 30 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 50 25 48 27 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 15 51 23 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 50 23 46 26 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 52 25 53 27 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 54 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 58 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 58 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 51 20 46 23 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 52 17 47 22 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 53 16 48 23 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 53 23 47 25 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 53 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 52 24 45 27 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 54 24 50 31 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 55 27 50 32 / 0 0 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 55 23 51 32 / 0 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 58 28 54 37 / 0 0 0 40 Portales........................ 59 26 55 38 / 0 0 0 40 Fort Sumner..................... 58 25 54 35 / 0 0 0 30 Roswell......................... 62 28 56 40 / 0 0 0 30 Picacho......................... 62 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 62 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 10

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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