Albuquerque, NM Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albuquerque, NM

June 24, 2024 6:28 AM MDT (12:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 10:08 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Albuquerque, NM
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Area Discussion for - Albuquerque, NM
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FXUS65 KABQ 241120 AAA AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures are forecast to rise a few degrees today while showers and thunderstorm activity focuses over the southwestern mountains of New Mexico and other remaining areas observe fewer storms. Storms will be slow-moving, so any place that does receive rainfall could receive a heavy downpour. Temperatures warm up even more on Tuesday with lots of lower elevation valleys and plains areas reaching the mid to upper 90's and even 100 degrees by the late afternoon. Showers and storms will continue to favor the southwestern mountains Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot going into Wednesday with readings running only a couple degrees cooler than Tuesday, but shower and thunderstorm activity will increase late in the day and into the evening as an upper level disturbance and rich monsoon moisture combine over the state. This trend of slightly cooler temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity is expected to persist into Thursday with a few storms even turning strong or perhaps severe. Rain chances may lower on Friday, but will increase again into the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Well above normal atmospheric moisture remains over NM as last night's sounding measured a 1.14" PWAT, underlying the spreading and encroaching elongated 592dm H5 high. Water vapor imagery does show dry air more in-line with the centroid of the upper high over the Permian Basin. Models push this drier mid-level air into southeastern NM where PoPs have been dialed back from yesterday.
This will bode well for lowering the risk of flash flooding on the South Fork and Salt Fire burn areas today. Afternoon thunderstorms will again favor the western mountains, mainly over Catron and western Socorro Counties this afternoon where scattered to numerous PoPs are in the forecast. Coverage of storms today will depend on if the current batch of mid-level broken to overcast skies will break up. This same patch of sky coverage acted to inhibit convective activity Sunday and may end up doing so again. HiRes CAMs in particular are not enthused about convective coverage, except over the Gila NF and west-central NM. Numerical model guidance is also showing surface dewpoints lowering to near or below 50F by the afternoon, sucking away some of the fuel for thunderstorms to grow from as well. This is reflected well in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs showing little to no QPF from storms over the northern mountains. Thus have left the isolated to scattered mention for storms over the northern mountains today, which again could bode well for the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. Nevertheless, despite the lower precipitation chances and subsequent lack of a Flood Watch, it will still be a "it only takes one storm" kind of day to ruin any positive outlook.

What convection does get going today, will steadily taper off through the evening hours. Tuesday sees the H5 strengthen to 595dm and move more squarely over NM. Highs rise back into the 90s and low 100s for many lower elevation areas. This includes 97F at Albuquerque and 104F at Roswell. Moisture trapped beneath the H5 high will again fuel afternoon convection favoring initiation over the high terrain. Numerical model guidance is also trying to latch onto a few storms developing along a surface boundary over east-central NM as well, and have introduced a slight chance PoPs in this area.
Otherwise, storm motions will be slow and erratic drifting off over surrounding lower elevation areas. Late day and evening storms will likely be along colliding outflow boundaries throughout central NM.
Rain footprints will be small and localized given the slow storm motions, meaning the threat of localized flash flooding will remain where these cells develop.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper level high may weaken by a decameter or two on Wednesday as it settles over southwestern NM near the AZ border.
This will help temperatures cool by a degree or two in several zones while eroding some of the subsidence in the area. PWATs will again be lowest in the northern zones Wednesday, but still close to 1.0 inch with higher moisture entrenched over the remainder of the state (PWATs near or over 200 percent of normal in western zones). The other feature to note is a weak shortwave perturbation that is being modeled to be drawn up into northwestern and eventually north central zones which could act as a trigger for an uptick in convection. Also, there is a bit more of a southeasterly surface wind component modeled over eastern NM which would offer faint low layer moisture advection and perhaps some light upslope flow to help initiate storms on the central mountain chain. The POPs have been trending up the past two forecast cycles for these reasons and the continued sluggish steering flow will reintroduce a more substantial heavy rainfall threat Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A Flood Watch seems inevitable at this point.

On Thursday, the anticyclone gets suppressed as a Pacific low treks along the Canadian border, allowing westerlies aloft to infiltrate the central and southern Rockies. A speed max aloft (45 to 50 kt at 300 mb and somewhat weaker than what was advertised yesterday) will enter northwestern NM, introducing speed shear.
Despite the westerlies, there is so much subtropical moisture in place over such a vast area, that PWATs will still remain very high (1.0 to 1.4 inch) over most of the forecast area. This environment will be supportive of stronger, better vented storms that will be capable of moving off of the higher terrain and sustaining themselves with strength and more organization.

The westerlies do finally erode away some of the moisture over the northwestern half or so of the state on Friday, leading to a downtick in convection while temperatures will respond upward.
This looks to be short-lived though, as the Bermuda high begins building back westward (but still east of NM) into the weekend.
This will orient a southerly component to the flow that will steer subtropical moisture back into NM, somewhat on Saturday, but more-so into early next week. This could establish another long duration of daily convection as June ends and July begins.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Skies have cleared considerably overnight. Afternoon thunderstorm activity is expected to begin over the western and central mountain chains near the noon hour or 18Z. Storm coverage will steadily increase thru the afternoon, with the highest coverage of storms focused over west-central NM. More isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage will be present over the northern mountains and south-central mountains. Localized MVFR conditions will accompany any thunderstorm cell. Coverage is only enough to warrant PROB30s at KGUP, KSAF and KLVS for thunderstorm impacts.
KABQ and KAEG do have TEMPOs for higher confidence that gusty winds could reach these terminals later in the day. Thunderstorm activity will wane thru the evening hours with skies steadily clearing out again tonight into Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Above normal moisture remains through the forecast period, albeit with a down tick in overall thunderstorm activity today and Tuesday.
Afternoon thunderstorms will favor initiation over the western and northern mountains. Storm motions will be slow and erratic, producing small and localized wetting footprints. The threat of localized flash flooding on recent burn scars will be lower than in recent days, but still present. Highs will climb into the 90s and low 100s for lower elevation areas as humidity begins to fall a tad.
Nevertheless overnight recoveries will remain fair to good most areas today and Tuesday morning. The upper high settles directly over NM Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the hottest temperatures of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a weak perturbation rounding the western edge of the upper high will favor an increase in afternoon thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon. This will increase the risk of flash flooding again, especially over recent burn areas.
This threat continues Thursday as the upper high begins to flatten.
The increased coverage of storms will offset the benefit of increased storm motions keeping storms moving and not dumping their rainfall all on one location. Drier air punches in via westerly flow Friday, lowering afternoon thunderstorm activity to end the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 91 64 95 66 / 5 5 5 10 Dulce........................... 88 49 91 53 / 20 10 10 5 Cuba............................ 85 58 89 60 / 20 20 10 10 Gallup.......................... 88 55 90 59 / 30 30 20 20 El Morro........................ 83 58 85 58 / 50 50 30 30 Grants.......................... 86 56 89 60 / 40 40 30 20 Quemado......................... 84 59 86 60 / 60 40 50 40 Magdalena....................... 86 65 89 67 / 50 30 40 30 Datil........................... 82 62 85 61 / 70 40 60 30 Reserve......................... 90 56 91 57 / 60 50 60 40 Glenwood........................ 95 69 96 68 / 50 40 50 40 Chama........................... 83 51 85 53 / 30 10 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 84 66 88 66 / 40 20 30 20 Pecos........................... 85 62 88 61 / 30 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 51 86 52 / 30 20 30 20 Red River....................... 75 50 78 46 / 30 10 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 79 46 82 39 / 30 10 20 20 Taos............................ 87 55 90 57 / 20 10 20 20 Mora............................ 84 56 86 55 / 30 10 40 20 Espanola........................ 91 62 95 65 / 20 10 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 86 65 90 66 / 30 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 63 93 64 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 70 95 70 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 69 97 72 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 69 98 65 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 70 97 71 / 20 20 20 20 Belen........................... 94 66 99 69 / 20 20 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 94 69 98 69 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 94 65 98 64 / 20 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 94 69 98 70 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 94 67 99 66 / 20 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 90 69 95 68 / 20 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 93 69 97 72 / 20 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 95 72 98 73 / 30 20 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 66 89 65 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 88 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 20 Edgewood........................ 89 62 92 63 / 20 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 59 93 61 / 20 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 84 61 89 61 / 20 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 87 62 91 64 / 30 20 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 88 63 92 63 / 30 20 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 93 70 95 71 / 20 20 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 84 64 86 59 / 30 20 50 30 Capulin......................... 87 59 90 58 / 20 20 20 20 Raton........................... 90 59 93 59 / 20 20 10 20 Springer........................ 91 60 95 60 / 30 20 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 84 59 88 60 / 30 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 93 66 97 67 / 10 10 5 20 Roy............................. 89 63 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 96 69 100 69 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 92 67 97 68 / 20 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 97 70 101 69 / 5 10 20 30 Clovis.......................... 96 70 98 69 / 5 10 20 40 Portales........................ 96 71 99 71 / 5 10 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 96 72 100 70 / 10 20 20 30 Roswell......................... 100 75 104 76 / 5 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 94 68 96 68 / 20 10 40 30 Elk............................. 92 64 93 64 / 20 10 40 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KABQ ALBUQUERQUE INTL SUNPORT,NM 6 sm36 minN 0610 smMostly Cloudy72°F55°F57%30.17
KAEG DOUBLE EAGLE II,NM 11 sm33 mincalm10 smClear68°F54°F60%30.20
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