SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Near-term forecast is on track, with well-advertised mid/upper- level shortwave trough conspicuous on GOES water-vapor channel satellite imagery moving into northern New Mexico from the Four Corners area. Along with a speed max over eastern NM at 250mb, this should help keep showers and thunderstorms going in the south-central mountains and adjacent highlands well into the evening and possibly beyond midnight, though intensity should be waning by that time. Massaged PoP's upward a bit from 03-09Z in these areas as well. Storms will continue general movement from NNW to SSE at around 10mph, with the current Flash Flood Watch remaining in effect until Midnight MDT for a wide swath of the area, from roughly the central mountain chain westward to the Continental Divide. Areas most at risk will be the HPCC and South Fork/Salt burn scars, but also the ABQ and Santa Fe metro areas this evening, particularly from about 6 to 10 PM.

The mid-level shortwave does not look to clear the southeastern portion of the state until around 12Z, so light showers may linger there through much of the night. Eventually, subsidence behind the shortwave should clear things out for the most part Saturday morning. Despite column moisture gradually ticking downward as the mid-level high center moves into west-central NM, sufficient moisture will remain in place for another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially given the destabilization from the early day sunshine. QPF signal in the guidance, favoring the western and central mountains, makes sense with the pattern. Went ahead and hoisted another Flash Flood Watch for the zones incorporating the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars from 12 Noon to 9 PM on Saturday. Catron County may be another area to watch for possible expansion of the watch, but confidence not high enough there or other areas at this time. With gradually falling PW's and lack of dynamical forcing, storms should not last nearly as deep into the evening as today's. Max and min temps continue to run within a few degrees of climatology.



LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The name of the game this time of year is tracking the position of the mid/upper-level high. The center of said upper high is forecast to wobble around over the long-term period, but never stray too far from New Mexico. This will lead to generally drier and hotter than average conditions, spelling a brief break in the wet monsoon pattern we have experienced much of the past six weeks. With ensemble solutions (viewed through the prism of cluster analysis) in good agreement with their deterministic counterparts, did not stray too far from the NBM, but did make a few targeted edits.

On Sunday, the upper-level high center is progged to be near El Paso, TX, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow to its north across the central Rockies. The 12Z GFS, in particular, is pretty robust with an H5 shortwave rounding the western flank of the high and moving through western NM in the evening, so did bump up/extend duration of PoP's in this region. Outside of this area and the central mountain chain, most other areas should stay dry on Sunday. Temps start to heat up as well, generally 3-8 deg F above climo for areas east of the Continental Divide. Not a lot of change for Monday, as the upper ridge flattens a bit between a subtropical low off the coast of Baja California and an inverted trough moving into south-central Texas.

Heat continues to build heading toward mid-week. Current thinking is that max temps will approach Heat Advisory Criteria for portions of the Rio Grande Valley (including ABQ) and the Chaves County Plains by Wedesday, if not sooner. Moderate to High values of Heat Risk and Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) in those areas could tip the scales in favor of Heat Advisories on Tuesday.
Western mountains continue to be favored for storm chances, along with the central mountains, so burn scar issues cannot be ruled out.

By Wed-Thu of next week, a seasonally typical, sprawling mid- level subtropical ridge with lie across the south-central CONUS.
As its center first nudges eastward into Texas and then reforms near the Four Corners (within a larger-scale West CONUS ridge), the door for a new influx of monsoonal moisture opens with scattered diurnal PoP's for most to round out next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

With rich monsoon moisture in the state today, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon and evening. Storms will initiate first over the western and northern high terrain and will move southward eventually filling into the Rio Grande valley and over the central mountains and highlands and eventually the east central plains this evening. Storms will pose the usual hazards of gusty downburst winds, small hail, lightning and heavy downpours that will temporarily reduce visibility and ceilings. Most of the activity is expected to come to an end by midnight, but a few sparse storms may survive into the early morning hours Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

No critical or elevated fire weather conditions are expected over the next seven days. Relative humidity values do fall below 20 percent over portions of northern and western NM daily beginning on Sunday, but 20-foot winds remain generally less than 10-12mph (apart from thunderstorms). Fuels also not particularly receptive, with latest ERC's hovering near 50 percent or below. Otherwise, numerous showers and thunderstorms continue well into this evening, some with locally heavy rainfall. Daily thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity will trend downward Saturday and Sunday, then remain below normal through Wednesday. A renewed influx of moisture in the latter half of next week should increase thunderstorm coverage again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 64 92 64 92 / 20 5 10 0 Dulce........................... 48 89 51 89 / 30 20 20 5 Cuba............................ 54 87 57 87 / 40 20 40 10 Gallup.......................... 56 88 56 89 / 40 20 20 10 El Morro........................ 56 83 57 83 / 50 50 40 20 Grants.......................... 58 86 60 88 / 50 40 40 20 Quemado......................... 57 84 58 84 / 70 60 50 40 Magdalena....................... 61 85 64 86 / 50 60 40 30 Datil........................... 56 82 59 83 / 60 70 40 40 Reserve......................... 56 89 56 89 / 70 70 40 50 Glenwood........................ 66 92 67 93 / 60 80 50 50 Chama........................... 48 82 51 81 / 40 30 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 58 84 63 86 / 60 40 30 10 Pecos........................... 56 85 60 87 / 60 60 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 82 48 85 / 60 50 20 10 Red River....................... 45 74 48 76 / 60 60 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 42 77 45 81 / 60 60 10 10 Taos............................ 51 87 53 89 / 50 30 10 5 Mora............................ 51 82 54 86 / 50 60 10 10 Espanola........................ 58 93 61 94 / 50 20 30 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 86 62 89 / 70 40 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 61 91 / 60 30 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 93 69 94 / 70 40 50 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 94 68 96 / 80 20 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 96 68 97 / 70 10 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 95 68 96 / 60 20 30 5 Belen........................... 63 95 66 97 / 60 20 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 62 96 67 97 / 60 20 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 61 94 65 96 / 70 20 30 5 Corrales........................ 64 96 68 97 / 60 20 30 5 Los Lunas....................... 63 95 67 96 / 60 10 30 5 Placitas........................ 61 92 66 93 / 70 20 30 5 Rio Rancho...................... 64 95 68 97 / 60 20 30 5 Socorro......................... 66 96 69 98 / 40 40 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 85 62 87 / 70 30 30 10 Tijeras......................... 59 87 63 89 / 70 30 30 10 Edgewood........................ 54 88 59 90 / 70 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 89 57 91 / 70 30 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 54 85 58 88 / 60 50 20 10 Mountainair..................... 56 86 60 89 / 60 40 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 86 60 89 / 70 40 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 64 90 66 94 / 60 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 59 80 60 85 / 50 50 20 40 Capulin......................... 54 82 56 89 / 30 40 5 10 Raton........................... 55 87 56 93 / 30 40 5 5 Springer........................ 56 87 56 94 / 30 40 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 53 83 56 89 / 50 60 10 5 Clayton......................... 62 90 65 97 / 10 10 0 5 Roy............................. 59 86 60 94 / 40 30 10 5 Conchas......................... 64 93 66 100 / 60 20 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 89 64 96 / 50 30 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 93 68 100 / 20 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 66 93 68 99 / 20 5 5 0 Portales........................ 66 93 68 99 / 10 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 93 68 99 / 40 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 71 96 72 102 / 30 20 5 5 Picacho......................... 65 90 65 95 / 40 30 10 10 Elk............................. 60 87 61 92 / 30 30 10 30

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ203-204-206>224- 226-229-241.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ214-215-226.