Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:47 PM EDT (19:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:57PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 256 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 061931 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 331 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will move from the central Gulf states to the Carolina coast Tuesday into Wednesday. The low will linger near the coast through late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 325 PM Monday . Convection has been widely scattered this afternoon, and as been the trend for the past few days, precipitation should diminish with loss of heating early this evening. Will continue slight chance PoP through the next few hours. After a lull, light precipitation will approach the southern zones toward morning as surface low moving across southern Georgia starts to works its way northeast toward the Carolinas bringing increasing deep moisture. Have chance PoPs in the southern zones around daybreak. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 330 PM Monday . Tuesday will be a transition day as precipitable water values surge to 2 inches as surface low moves very slowly from Georgia into the Carolinas Tuesday. Rain coverage should gradually increase during the latter part of the afternoon and have PoPs increasing to high chance by early afternoon for the southern half of the CWA. Cloud cover will lead to lower temperatures area-wide tomorrow with highs mid/upper 80s, with the warmer readings over the northern zones.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 310 PM Monday . Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night and move slowly northeast along or just off the coastal Carolinas Wednesday through Friday resulting in unsettled weather for most of the week. An upper trough and surface cold front will cross the area late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms again possible this weekend.

Tuesday Night through Friday . Guidance continues to indicate the development of a surface low over the Deep South, approaching the Carolinas by Tuesday night. The low is forecast to move slowly over or just off the Carolinas Wednesday trough Friday. Guidance is in better agreement through Thursday, with considerable divergence by Friday on the timing of departure with the surface low lifting northeast of the area. The circulation around this area of low pressure will draw deeper moisture north into the area and enhance coverage/intensity of showers and thunderstorms especially during peak heating. Trended PoPs to slightly higher for this period given better agreement, with storm total QPF through Thursday night ranging 1-2 inches inland to 2.5-3.5 inches along the immediate coast. Temps should be near normal, with the potential for some below normal max temps for days with more extensive cloud cover and precip.

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring this low for development, and currently places the chance of tropical cyclone formation at 40 percent (medium) once it re-emerges over the Atlantic off or just along the SC/NC coast.

Saturday and Sunday . The low pressure area should lift northeast away from the area by late Friday into early Saturday. A broad eastern CONUS trough will develop with a strong shortwave and cold front moving through the area late Saturday into Saturday night. These features will result in slightly above normal temps in southwesterly flow, with showers/thunderstorms possible with the weak front Saturday evening/night, and again Sunday mainly due to diurnally driven convection.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/ . As of 130 PM Mon . VFR conditions through the period with afternoon thunderstorms working northward from the coast expected to end by 22Z tonight. Southerly winds less than 7kts save for any gusts associated with outflows from nearby tstorms. Winds will calm overnight leading to patchy fog in the morning between 9Z and 12Z. Tomorrow morning winds will be out of the SE less than 7kts. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening more widespread showers could bring MVFR cats to terminals as the Low moves in from the south, however this is expected to happen at the end of the period so it was not included in this TAF cycle.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ . As of 130 PM Monday . More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected by Tuesday evening as a slow moving area of low pressure moves into the area. Expect more widespread sub-VFR conditions through the long term as the area of low pressure tracks through or just off the Eastern NC coast. Guidance diverges beyond Thursday, with duration of sub-VFR conditions dependent on track of surface low which looks to lift northeast of the region sometime late Thursday into Friday.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/ . As of 330 PM Monday . Very light flow regime continues in place over the marine area with SE/S winds of 5-10 knots, with a few highest gusts over the northern waters, and seas continuing at 2 to occasionally 3 feet. For tonight and Tuesday, expect S/SE winds 5-10 knots with occasional winds to 15 knots and seas of 2-3 feet to continue.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ . As of 3 PM Monday . Benign marine conditions will continue through Wednesday with a generally light gradient over the waters resulting in southerly winds 5-15 kt through Tuesday Night, becoming southeasterly Wednesday, with seas 2-3 ft through Wednesday.

An area of low pressure will approach the waters from the southwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday, shifting winds more easterly by late Wed and eventually northeasterly by Thurs morning. Seas build to 2-4 ft Wed night then 3-5 ft Thurs through Friday. May see Small Craft Advisories Thursday night through Friday for the central coastal waters where seas could build to 4-6 ft in response to the low pressure crossing the ENC waters. All other waters appear to peak at 3-5 ft during the later portions of the forecast.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to become more widespread Wednesday through Friday which could impact marine safety.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . DAG AVIATION . CEB MARINE . DAG/CTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi47 min SSE 7 G 9.9 83°F 85°F1019.6 hPa (-0.6)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi47 min SSE 7 G 8 83°F 1018.9 hPa (-0.6)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8 85°F 85°F1019.2 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC14 mi1.9 hrsVar 510.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F75°F66%1019.5 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi53 minS 13 G 237.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain77°F69°F77%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3SE7S13
G23
1 day agoNW5NW6CalmN4E9NE7E7E6SE7SE3CalmSE3E5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm6E4E5SE6SE4S12
2 days ago--W3NE3W4W3CalmSW5SW6SW4W5W3W4SW3W5W4W3NW5W3W5NW8W66W5NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:50 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.90.3-0-0.10.10.61.21.7221.81.30.80.3-0-0.10.20.71.31.92.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.81.40.90.40-0.1-00.40.91.41.71.71.51.20.80.40.1-0.10.10.511.62

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.