Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 9:54 PM   Moonset 6:39 AM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 615 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Tue - W winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

AMZ100 615 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Reinforcing northeasterly surge of winds impacts area waters tonight as high pressure builds into the area from the northeast. Sca conditions continue soundside today, while seas remain elevated north of cape hatteras into Sat afternoon. Benign coastal conditions likely through the rest of the period.

FXUS62 KMHX 261004 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 604 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas from the northeast today, and will remain in control while sliding offshore this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 600 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to build over eastern NC from the north through tonight. Gusty northeast winds will begin to gradually subside this afternoon and evening as the gradient begins to slacken. An expansive area of low stratus clouds continue across eastern NC early this morning and will persist over much of the area through late morning then dissipate due to heating. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon with pleasant high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, with cooler low to mid 60s along the Outer Banks and immediate coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM Fri...Quiet weather tonight as high pressure continues over the area. The high will produce clear skies and light winds. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid 50s immediate coast and Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday

- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge, warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop.
There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend, but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies, warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support this, and with this forecast update, I've bumped temps up towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it's still noteworthy as this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with prolonged exposure.

From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note, CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it's something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise, we'll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday (10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week should lower some compared to early in the week, especially with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around at times.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 600 AM Friday...Widespread low stratus clouds will produce prevailing IFR conditions in ceilings through late morning (around 14Z), followed by a brief period of MVFR ceilings until 16-18Z, then VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Some higher based 5-10K based clouds will move from the west late tonight and early Sat. Winds will generally be NE to E around 5-10 kt with gusts around 15 kt inland while coastal sections will see 10-20 kt with gusts 25 kt into this afternoon. Not seeing any signals in the guidance pointing to fog overnight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 600 AM Friday...SCA's will continue into tonight due northerly surge and elevated seas that developed on Thu and which will continue this morning, The strongest winds, 15-25 kt will persist until around 12Z this morning then gradually diminish to 15-20 kt this afternoon and 10-15 tonight. Elevated 4-7 ft seas this morning will be slow to subside below 6 ft. The southern waters will subside to 3-5 ft late today with the northern waters forecast to subside early Sat morning, and the central waters Sat afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated seas linger into early this weekend

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been impacting the area for the past few days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:22 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:08 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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