Charlotte, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlotte, NC

June 20, 2024 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 6:52 PM   Moonset 3:31 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 201029 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 629 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will keep the area dry through Friday and cause a heat wave to build across the region through early next week.
More typical shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually return to the area Saturday through Monday as a weak cold front approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:15 AM Thursday: No notable changes since the last fcst update. The elongated band of thick cirrus continues to gradually dissipate over our far western zones this morning.
Another sct to bkn layer of altocu has spread over most of our fcst area over the past few hrs, but it should become more sct as the morning wears on. Despite calm winds, we have yet to see any fog development over the mtn valleys this morning. Lows this morning should bottom-out near, if not slightly below climatology for most locations.

Otherwise, very broad upper ridging will remain centered to our north and help keep the atmosphere suppressed thru the near-term period. The center of the ridge is expected to retrograde westward today and tonight and will also flatten modestly as broad upper trofing over Canada expands southward.
At the sfc, sprawling high pressure will continue to dominate much of the Atlantic basin and keep relatively dry, ELY low- level flow over our area today. A weak sfc wave is expected to become more organized just north of the Bahamas today, but it remains unclear whether this feature will develop into a sfc low pressure system before it moves over Florida early Friday. Regardless, it is not expected to have a sig- nificant impact on our sensible wx, with the deeper moisture associated with the system remaining to our SE thru the end of the period. Much like the past few days, any diurnal insta- bility should be limited today, with no significant amounts of sfc-based CAPE expected to materialize over our area. Thus, I maintain a dry fcst thru the period. Highs today should be a degree or 2 warmer than yesterday (Wednesday) and slightly above climatology for the 3rd week in June.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday: The upper-level pattern will be evolving through the short-term period as the impressive 597dm ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley at the beginning of the period begins to respond to a weak easterly wave approaching the northern Florida and Georgia coastlines. The inverted trough associated with the wave will cause a weakness along the Atlantic coastline in the expansive anticyclone which will persist through the end of the period Sunday morning. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that weak low pressure along the wave will move across Georgia and northern Florida later Saturday into early Sunday, well south of the area. Therefore, the main story through the period will be the building heat across the forecast area resulting from the subsidence overhead. Friday's high temperatures will start us off about 2-4 degrees above normal and that will be the "coolest" highs through the remainder of the forecast. Fortunately, dewpoints will remain below 65 as weak easterly flow persists so the humidity will not be oppressive to end the work week.

The easterly low-level flow will begin to veer southeasterly Friday night into Saturday as Atlantic high pressure shifts south towards Bermuda. This will cause a gradual increase in moisture advection beginning on Saturday from the subtropical airmass associated with the easterly wave as deep-layer ridging settles overhead.
Expect the sinking airmass to cause high temperatures to peak a few degrees warmer than Friday, reaching 90 across the mainstem mountain valleys and 93-95 east of the Escarpment or about 5-7 degrees above normal area wide. The current guidance is unfortunately a bit more aggressive with dewpoints on Saturday afternoon across the southeastern-most zones in response to the moisture from the easterly wave. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 now possible in the lower Catawba and upper Savannah River valleys, heat indices may approach 100 in isolated locations Saturday afternoon.

The favorable low-level flow and modest moisture advection is introducing slight-chance to chance diurnal PoPs back into the National Blend guidance for the mountains on Saturday afternoon.
However, the NAM and GFS profiles suggest the subsidence-induced inversion around 650mb is going to be quite difficult to overcome.
The official forecast therefore tempers expectations just a bit for now.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday: The extended period begins with continued westward retrogression of the upper-level anticyclone in response to height falls across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic in response to a shortwave trough. An attendant weak cold front will be entering the Ohio Valley on Sunday while remnants of the easterly wave stall over Georgia. Therefore, the forecast area can expect increasing diurnal PoPs as the lower heights aloft work to chip away at the inversion capping convective activity. Unfortunately, overall QPF is meager at best and will do nothing to combat the increasingly dry conditions. The heat ridge will persist in the lower half of the atmosphere as a southwesterly flow pattern develops; therefore, our high temperatures for Sunday actually look to be another degree or two higher than Saturday while the increasing moisture across the area results in dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s from the mountain valleys to the Piedmont. With highs solidly in the mid-90s east of the Escarpment, expect pockets of low-100 heat indices across the favored lower Catawba River and upper Savannah River valleys, including the Charlotte metro.

The weak cold front will be approaching our area Sunday night into Monday morning, therefore it looks like Monday may offer our best coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the proximity of the front, PoPs will persist Sunday night through Monday night, peaking with the heating of the day Monday afternoon. However, with the weak front and a subtropical ridge axis stretched across the Gulf Coast, we lack sufficient forcing or Gulf moisture flux to advertise anything more than a tenth of an inch of total QPF.

The guidance has been trending towards a cleaner frontal passage for Monday night into Tuesday, and PoPs have therefore trended down for Tuesday as it is looking to be a fairly dry day across the area.
Guidance is suggesting yet another front may be approaching the area later Wednesday so diurnal PoPs return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, there is no synoptic scale pattern change to erode the lower-level heat dome in place across the southern US through the end of the forecast period. Expect highs to reach the mid-90s each day through Wednesday. At this time, Tuesday looks to be the most tolerable of the period, with the frontal passage shaving a degree or two off the highs and ushering in dewpoints in the lower 60s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru the 12z taf period across our area. It's looking like we won't see much if any fog development this morning. Otherwise, we can expect little change in the synoptic pattern for today with dry high pressure in control. The lyr of sct to bkn cirrus currently over our area will gradually sct thru the morning with another round of sct VFR clouds expected this aftn and evening. Winds will remain light to calm at most sites thru the morning and then pick up from the ENE outside of the mtns for the afternoon/ evening. At KAVL, winds will pick up from the SE this afternoon and remain SELY thru the evening.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry with VFR conditions through Friday. Mtn valley fog and/or low stratus will be possible each morning. Isolated diurnal convec- tion will be possible over the mtns on Saturday, with a return to more sct convection across the region Sunday and Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.




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