Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:47PM Monday January 27, 2020 7:53 PM EST (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:19AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 272345 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 645 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Expect dry conditions Tuesday, followed by another weak low pressure area moving by to our south late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with another chance for precipitation. Brief drying occurs again Thursday. Expecting another low pressure to cross our region late Friday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 640 PM: The passing, channeled upper vorticy lobe is now driving showers mainly east of the mountains, with residual forcing over the southern Appalachians beginning to trend back toward more classical northwest upslope flow. As such, accumulations should be done in the region from Macon to Transylvania Counties and any other places east of the Blue Ridge escarpment. The warning has thus been pared back one tier toward the TN border. An SPS could be needed overnight to address freezing conditions in locations where precipitation fell today, but we'll assess the disposition of the existing Winter Weather Advisory first.

Otherwise, clearing skies for much of the area, and winds dropping off somewhat, will allow lows to fall into the 20s to near 30 in the mountains and 30s east of the mountains.

By Tuesday the rain/snow producer will be pushing off the East Coast, making way for flat ridging and mostly sunny skies, including near the Tennessee border by the afternoon. Seasonable temperatures are expected across the mountains (generally 40s to near 50) to just above normal to the east of the mountains (50s).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 130 PM Mon: Weak, seasonal high pressure will be over the area Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves west along the Gulf Coast. The guidance is now in better agreement with this system showing more consolidated short wave energy crossing the area Wednesday night. There is deep moisture moving in with this system but H85 flow remains weak. There is some synoptic forcing but it is weak as well with little upper divergence and only weak isentropic lift. The surface low remains along the Gulf Coast and moves relatively quickly. Have followed a guidance blend and bring low chance PoP to along and west of the I-26 corridor by late Wed afternoon, good chance PoP across the area Wed night, then slight chance PoP for the NC mountains into the I-40 corridor Thursday morning. Precip tapers off quickly during late morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings and thickness values show another elevation dependent rain/snow mix with no significant warm nose. QPF will be light and any snowfall would be light as well with accumulations generally limited to elevations above 3500 feet. Can't rule out some flakes mixing in outside of the mountains, especially across the I-40 corridor Wednesday night, but chance of any accumulations there is very low. Amounts are still uncertain, but another high elevation advisory will be possible.

Lows a few degrees above normal Tuesday night rise a couple of degrees Wednesday night, also limiting snow potential. Highs a few degrees below normal Wednesday fall a few degrees for Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 250 PM Mon: Guidance remains in disagreement on the evolution of the weekend weather system. A short wave ridge moves over the area Friday then a weak short wave trough moves over Friday night. The GFS then shows phased northern and southern stream short waves moving toward the area Saturday and across the area Saturday night. The ECMWF does split some weak southern stream energy off of a developing closed low and phases it with a northern stream short wave during the same time frame. However, the ECMWF is weaker significantly weaker overall. NW flow develops on Sunday with short waves remaining north of the area with an upper ridge moving in on Monday. The GFS and ECMWF develop a Miller A low in the Gulf then move it across FL into the Atlantic. While the low positions are similar, the GFS is much stronger and wetter over our area then the ECMWF which keeps the bulk of the precipitation to our south and east. The GFS is significantly colder and has much more in the way of NW flow precip behind this system than the ECMWF. The GFS would also indicate the potential for enough instability outside of the mountains for the the precip to break containment and spread across the foothills, piedmont, and eastern Upstate. Given these differences have gone with a guidance blend but trended toward the drier side of that. Have low end chance PoP across the area Friday night and Saturday with some low end NW flow PoP for Saturday night and Sunday. Forecast soundings and thickness values suggest another elevation dependent rain/snow forecast with little in the way of a warm nose. Of course, the GFS would suggest a more significant snowfall potential even outside of the mountains while the ECWMF suggests just rain outside of the mountains and a light NW flow event.

Temps rise to near normal for Friday and Saturday with above normal temps expected for Sunday and Monday using a guidance blend. Of course, the GFS suggests temps could be colder if it verified.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: Forcing from the passing upper vorticity lobe will drive vicinity showers mainly around KCLT for a few hours this evening before moving east. Otherwise, anticipate mainly VFR cigs, scattering after midnight. Northwest winds should be less than 10 kt east of the mountains, but occasionally gusty at KAVL this evening. Once the northwest flow moisture dries up west of KAVL overnight, expect only FEW to SCT cirrus around the region through most of Tuesday, with surface winds gradually adjusting back toward WSW by mid afternoon.

Outlook: Anticipate a return to solid VFR conditions through Tuesday. The next weak disturbance may bring brief precipitation and associated restrictions on Wednesday, with brief clearing again by Thursday. Another system is expected by this weekend.

Confidence Table .

23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 90% High 100% Med 63% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-048>053-058-059. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . HG/65 SHORT TERM . RWH LONG TERM . RWH AVIATION . HG/65


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi84 min N 2.9 G 6 50°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi34 min W 9.9 G 13 54°F 1010.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi62 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F41°F83%1011.3 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi64 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F44°F93%1011.8 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F39°F74%1011.2 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi61 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast45°F41°F86%1012.5 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi60 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds43°F39°F89%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW3CalmCalmCalmS5W3N5CalmCalmS6W3W3SW3SW5SW6SW10SW9W8NW7N4NW4N3Calm
1 day agoN5N5N3NW3W3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW6NW5NW6N4W6W8W8W5CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW3S4S5SW6W5W7W7W3SW6W4W4CalmW5SW3CalmW4W6W5NW7W6W7W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.