Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlotte, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 12:45 AM EST Tuesday: Some bands of high cirrus have begun to move overhead during the past hour or so with the more substantial cloud cover still to our west and south. A Cold Weather Advisory re- mains in place for Avery County until 11 AM this morning, and for our zones roughly along and south of I-85 until 10 AM. It's still possible that the increasing high clouds could prevent temps from dropping as much as anticipated this morning.

Which brings us to Tuesday...which we have been monitoring for several days now. Very little has changed overall with the expected track of the system because of the low amplitude of the upper trof.
The preponderance of the guidance continues to show the bulk of the precip stretched out well to the south of the forecast area without much (if any) potential for significant precip reaching this far north. The best forcing and moisture remains at mid and upper lvls, while low levels remain very dry. Mid-level isentropic lift will spread northeast across the region in the afternoon, but with such a dry and deep sub-cloud layer, much of what should develop from the mid-lvl clouds will be lost to evaporation. Snow flurries are probable in the afternoon as this lift strengthens, but the chances of anything reaching the ground and accumulating are no better than slight across northeast GA and the Upstate south/east of I-85, maybe up to 30 pct across the Lakelands/lower Piedmont in the very late afternoon. One could turn this around and say that it is likely (or more than likely) that no accumulation will happen in these areas.
Even if something were to accumulate, it would more than likely amount to less than one-quarter inch of a fluffy dry snow. This is not enough to support issuing a Winter Weather Advisory. In the mean time, we will mind the forecast guidance and consider a reasonable worst-case scenario that would be around one inch or so southeast of I-85. But, again, the overwhelming consensus of the guidance is for a non-event. Temperatures, meanwhile, will continue to be well below normal, staying below 32F in much of the fcst area and only getting a few degrees above that over the south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 100 AM Tuesday: The short term forecast period picks up Wednesday morning with a frigid arctic airmass entrenched across the region as surface high pressure becomes centered over the Appalachians. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values will likely continue into the early morning before gradually warming by mid morning. Temperatures will remain well below average with daytime highs struggling to reach the freezing mark across much of the area and mid 30s elsewhere across the Upstate and northeast Georgia. The synoptic pattern remains rather perturbed heading into Thursday as several shortwave troughs swing across the Southern Plains and into the southeast states. These systems will be moisture starved, however, and no QPF response is depicted in guidance owing to very dry air and a lack of moisture return. Thus, the forecast will remain dry with gradual airmass modification commencing Thursday as cold advection wanes and low-level thermal profiles slowly warm. Efficient overnight radiational cooling will still support low temperatures in the teens to low 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EST Monday: A secondary shortwave looks to dig over the Plains and race east towards the CFWA Thursday and Friday. This shortwave will help to develop a coastal low over the remnant baroclinic zone off the Southeast Coast and lift it north along the Eastern Seaboard Thursday into Friday as the trough swings across the eastern-third of the CONUS. Another shot of precip may develop over the eastern Carolinas, but model guidance suggests any precip should remain well east of the CFWA Thursday into Thursday night. The rest of the forecast remains mostly dry as the flow aloft flattens and the airmass slowly modifies by the following weekend. Temperatures remain well-below normal and rebound to near-normal values by the weekend. Model guidance try to paint our next storm system by D7, but temperatures will be too warm for any p-type concerns, especially outside of the mountains.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue through the 06z taf period thanks to arctic high pressure over the region. Expect high clouds to gradually spread over our area from the west overnight and into the morning with clouds becoming bkn to ovc by daybreak. VFR cloud cover will linger through the day and eventually sct from NW to SE later Tuesday night. The main question will be weather or not a low pressure system that develops over the Gulf of Mexico and then quickly lifts NE and off the SE Coast will bring deeper moisture far enough north to produce precip at any of our terminals. With the cold air in place thru the taf period, any precip should be snow. However, at this time precip chances aren't quite high enough to warrant a mention in any of the tafs. If any terminals do get snow, the most likely time would be around 00z Wednesday, with no significant accums expected.
Otherwise, winds will remain NWLY at KAVL thru the period with some low-end gusts expected at the site later this evening. Outside the mtns, winds will favor a NELY direction thru the morning and then gradually turn W to NW this aftn. Winds will then veer to a more NLY direction later this evening to end the period.

Outlook: Another round of reinforcing high pressure spreads over the area on Wednesday keeping things dry, VFR, and cold thru the end of the week.

CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-21

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 72 1927 8 1985 59 1927 -16 1985 KCLT 73 1935 24 1985 58 1954 -5 1985 KGSP 73 1927 26 1985 59 1933 -4 1985

RECORDS FOR 01-22

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 73 1932 21 1960 59 1933 0 1970 KCLT 74 1937 29 1970 60 1906 5 1970 KGSP 72 1938 31 1970 58 1933 3 1893 1921

RECORDS FOR 01-23

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 73 1927 20 2005 54 1999 1 1936 1936 KCLT 75 1927 27 1970 59 1999 9 2003 KGSP 73 1974 30 1970 58 1999 5 1893 1927



GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NCZ033.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ008>014-019-102-103-105>109.