Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:46PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:46 PM EDT (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 10:55AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 181858
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
258 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
Deep moisture returns over the weekend as a potential tropical
cyclone moves from the gulf of mexico toward the eastern carolinas.

Brief drying returns for Monday before a sharp cold front crosses
the area on Tuesday. Expect drying again for midweek, with yet
another cold front approaching late in the week.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 230 pm: through this afternoon and the rest of tonight, a
dry sfc high centered over the northeastern CONUS will dominate
our pattern, along with the attendant upper ridge. Meanwhile,
a shortwave will swing across the southern plains and lower
mississippi valley, and tropical storm nestor will creep toward the
florida panhandle. Cirrus is expected to spread in fast enough to
impact min temps tonight, for the majority of the area. Winds will
not yet have picked up, and many areas could decouple especially
across the northern zones seeing less cirrus, and radiation is most
efficient. Current thinking is that temps will remain warm enough
to prevent frost formation, but some of the more sheltered valleys
of the far northern tn border counties might still see a little bit.

Soon after landfall, nestor will begin extratropical transition
as it is intercepted by the eastward-moving shortwave, and as it
interacts with a baroclinic zone over the deep south. This will
advect northward as a warm front Saturday morning, and low-level
forcing accordingly ramps up over our cwfa through the day Saturday.

Categorical pops are warranted by Saturday evening over the whole
area. However, the post-tropical system is unanimously progged
to be east of our area by 12z Sunday, and the event looks to be
practically over at that time.

The forecast track of nestor will be far enough southeast of the
area that our wind fcst is based on a blend of the GFS and ec;
in collaboration with neighboring offices a decision was made not
to incorporate the NHC wind field with the system potentially
being too disorganized for the field to represent the effects
in our area. Gusts likely will be noticeable but probably not
that impactful for most folks. QPF is based on the wpc qpf,
with some adjustments from model blends that reflect the upslope
influence. Rainfall rates still appear unlikely to cause significant
impacts, especially as soils remain fairly dry. A colder trend is
seen in the latest temp guidance; the onset of precip into the
dry continental airmass appears to result in diabatic cooling,
and this is reflected in temps staying in the 50s over the western
portion of the area where the precip looks to start early in the
day. Combined with the moderately windy conditions and the rain,
Saturday may prove to be an unpleasant day to be outdoors. In fact
some guidance depicts nondiurnal warming Saturday night as precip
comes to an end.

Based on SBCAPE plots from the nam, gfs, and corresponding
probabilities from the sref, the severe threat should remain near
zero for our area. Prog soundings show a strong inversion for our
area on the northwest side of nestor's track. Shear however will
be very strong. A sharp CAPE gradient will be present Saturday
night across the midlands; one possibility we discussed is for
supercellular structures to advect in our direction only to fizzle
out in the stable air, so some caution will be needed as nestor
makes its nearest pass.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
As of 225 pm edt Friday: the remnants of tropical storm nestor will
lift quickly away to the northeast on Sunday, with little more than
isolated showers briefly lingering in the northerly flow behind the
system along i-77 Sunday morning. A shortwave ridge, and dry
profiles, will then set up over the region Sunday through Sunday
night, with temperatures running above climo.

Meanwhile, closed low pressure will deepen over the central and
northern plains on Sunday, with the resulting full-latitude trough
pushing into the mississippi river valley on Monday. Southerly
upslope flow and moisture will pick up into the extreme southern
appalachians ahead of the approaching cold front Monday afternoon,
and scattered upslope rain shower pops will be advertised. There is
now good model agreement that the deepest forcing and moisture with
the sharp cold front should cross the southern appalachians and
surrounding areas Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although the
southerly low-level jet may reach 40 kt, the instability will be
greatly limited by the largely nighttime morning FROPA as the
boundary reaches the blue ridge escarpment around 12z and then moves
east of i-77 by 18z. The best chance of any transient overlap of
instability and shear appears to be the lower piedmont around noon,
and this will be where the best severe thunderstorm chance will
briefly bubble up. Temperatures could be a bit non-diurnal (falling)
Tuesday afternoon in the mountains.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
As of 215 pm edt Friday: the short term cold front will be exiting
the region as we move into the extended period, with deep upper
troughing extending from the great lakes to the gulf coast moving in
behind the front. Expect really beautiful conditions behind the
front. Surface high over the south will modify somewhat as it moves
east, but we'll start the period a few degrees below normal,
especially with Wednesday morning lows. The surface high pressure
will settle directly over the area Wednesday night, with overnight
lows just a tad colder, and highs Thursday just a tad warmer than on
Wednesday as the surface high begins to moderate. Another deep
trough will push into the plains Thursday night, pushing the surface
high offshore and amplifying the upper pattern, with southwest flow
aloft over the area. For the new day 7, as the front approaches,
moisture will lift out of the gulf and spread over the surface high.

Gfs brings more rain to the area than the ecmwf, but plenty of time
to work this out since the bulk of the precip wouldn't move in until
Friday night or so given the current guidance.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR through tomorrow morning. Winds will be
tricky to pin down, with the region under the opposing influences
of dry sfc high pressure to our north and the (sub)tropical
cyclone exiting the gulf of mexico. Periods of variability are
likely through morning, though attempts have been made to prevail a
direction when possible. The center of the cyclone most likely will
track well SE of all terminals, but deteriorating flight conditions
and shra still are almost certain after midday Saturday. Winds
will become gusty in the afternoon, but gusts are not expected to
exceed 25 kt thru the end of the period.

Outlook: though rain and winds will taper off Saturday night
or early Sunday as the cyclone moves away from the area,
restrictions from the cyclone likely will persist until after
daybreak Sunday. Dry conditions in the wake of the system will last
through Monday, though some restrictions could occur at daybreak
Monday. A cold front will arrive Monday night, probably bringing
more precipitation and restrictions.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 88%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 100% high 91%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 83%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 82%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi57 min Calm G 1 61°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi27 min Calm G 0 64°F 1015.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi55 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F42°F56%1016.6 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair61°F41°F48%1017.6 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair58°F46°F65%1016.3 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair59°F39°F49%1017.7 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair55°F43°F64%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW6N5N6--N3N4N3N5N4NW3NW5CalmN4N5N7N53CalmNE64W3NW3Calm
1 day agoNW10
G21
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NW8NW7N5SW4N5CalmN9N3NW5NW4W3W3W7N7NW83NW7W7NW8W6W5W3
2 days agoS4S7S6S9S6S9CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE54E3NW3N5NW7NW5W8W8W5NW7NW11NW9
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.