Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:38PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 181439
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1039 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Summertime heat and humidity will continue into the upcoming
weekend. There is a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through the period as well. A cold front will provide
relief from the heat and humidity early next week. However, chances
for showers and storms will continue.

Near term through tonight
As of 1035 am: a weak upper trough weakness in the subtropical ridge
will remain in place across the area through tonight, arguably
providing the most favorable pattern for convective development than
we've seen in several days. Only some isolated showers linger near
the northern mountains at this time. Low clouds and fog are also
dissipating with nearly full sunshine across much of the area. Have
bumped highs slightly given current temps and conditions. Don't
expect widespread heat index values over 105, but many locations
should see values near or over 100. Kgso sounding showed the
potential for moderate CAPE but very high pw values and moderate
dcape. The kffc sounding showed moderate CAPE likely and strong cape
possible. That sounding is also a little drier, but still high pw
values with high dcape and a large separation between the freezing
level and wet bulb zero level.

Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor (< 6 c km), so strong
insolation and dewpoints of around 70 will be necessary to realize
anything more than modest levels of instability later today, and
indeed a consensus of guidance suggests that 1500-2000 j kg is about
as well as we'll do. Having said that, there will be multiple
mechanisms to potentially initiate deep convection: a modest W nw
upslope flow into the tn border areas, a lee side trough that is
expected to set up across the piedmont, good old-fashioned terrain
differential heating effects, and of course outflow boundaries,
which may prove to be more active than in recent days in light of
improving downdraft cape. We generally opted for pops of 40-50%
across much of the cwa, with a smattering of likelies across the
high terrain. Depending upon instability trends throughout the
daylight hours, these could well need an upward boost later today.

The potential for severe convection still doesn't appear great in
light of weakening shear and the expectation of moderate cape
levels. However, the uptick in dcape and decent overall coverage of
convection should increase the targets of opportunity for a couple
of wet microbursts. Tonight won't be much different than any other
over the past month.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 230 am Thursday: the main story thru the short term will be
hot and humid conditions thanks to an expansive mid-level ridge over
much of the eastern conus. Temps will be back into the mid 90s east
of the mountains along with sticky dewpoints. Despite the building
ridge, scattered diurnal convection, favoring the mountains, is
expected to develop thanks to strong insolation and those sticky
dewpoints. Pops will be mainly in the chc range, except for likely
across the mountains Saturday. The ridge will be most suppressive to
our east, and with a steering flow lightly out of the east, the i-77
corridor may see only isolated convection Saturday. The warm mid-
levels will likely limit severe potential. But a non-zero excessive
rain threat will exist, due to slow storm motions. Heat index (hi)
values will climb into the 100-105 range across the entire piedmont
and even much of the foothills both days. Spotty 105-107 hi values
will be possible, especially across the upper savannah valley and
the i-77 corridor, if dewpts don't mix out enough. The hi will rise
well into the 90s in many mountain valleys.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday: a weakness in the broad mid-level ridge
develops on Sunday as a trough begins to dig into the upper midwest.

The ridge continues to break down Monday and Tuesday, as the trough
becomes entrenched over the eastern CONUS by Wednesday. A series of
waves move through the trough and push a cold front into the area.

This will bring an increasing chance of afternoon and evening
convection as the forcing increases. Deeper moisture moves in with
this system as well, creating the potential for excessive rainfall.

The good news is there will be a cooling trend. Sunday will only be
slightly cooler and less oppressive than Saturday. Monday will be
even cooler but still above normal with heat index values still near
100 across much of the piedmont. Better relief on Tuesday and
Wednesday, as the front is expected to push thru the area. Highs
fall to just below normal (mid to upper 80s) Tuesday, and possibly
well below normal (lower to mid 80s) Wednesday. The price to pay for
the cooler temps will be more cloud cover and higher pops.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
At kclt and elsewhere: all sites should remain predominantlyVFR
through the period. As the atmosphere destabilizes, convection is
expected to expand in coverage from late morning through the
afternoon across the area, and at least vcts prob30s are warranted
at all sites during the afternoon early evening. The best chances
will again be at kavl, and a tempo has been introduced there. Tempos
will likely be needed at some point at the other sites, but will
allow the day shift to evaluate 12z data a little more before taking
that step. Winds will be SW at 5-10 kts before diminishing this
evening. Another round of mtn valley fog is likely tonight, but just
how much conditions deteriorate at kavl tomorrow morning will depend
largely upon how much rain the site receives today.

Outlook: typical, scattered diurnal convection is expected Friday
through the weekend, especially over the mountains. Patchy mountain
valley fog and low CIGS remain possible during the overnight and
early morning hours. A transition to a more active pattern may occur
beginning Monday.

Confidence table...

14-20z 20-02z 02-08z 08-12z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 84% high 94%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi62 min W 4.1 G 9.9 93°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi72 min SW 9.9 G 14 88°F 1015.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi40 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F71°F51%1015.4 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi42 minWNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F66°F44%1016.9 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi38 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy92°F70°F49%1015.4 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi39 minSSW 1010.00 miFair92°F68°F46%1015.3 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi38 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds90°F71°F54%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12
G18
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G19
SW8W8W9W3S5SW6W4SW6SW4NW3W3S7CalmSW3SW4SW4SW5W465W7
1 day agoSW8SW7S6SW8W7SW6SW4SW4W3S5CalmS4CalmCalmS3S3S5S5SW5S5SW5SW9SW10SW10
G19
2 days agoNE4CalmN6W6W66W4NW3CalmW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW4NW4--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.