Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:28 PM EDT (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 10:14AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 201510
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1110 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure and elevated moisture will persist across
the western carolinas and northeast georgia today. A moist cold
front will approach the region Thursday and become stationary over
the area on Friday. The front will gradually settle south of the
region through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north
and maintains cooler than normal temperatures. Moisture could linger
behind the front.

Near term through tonight
As of 1105 am edt Tuesday: minor adjustments made to
temperatures pops to coincide with latest trends as the rest of the
near term forecast remains on track. Light showers continue to move
generally nne across the southeastern portions of the forecast area
this morning, while elsewhere, conditions remain dry with lingering
clouds and areas of sunshine. Current temperatures are in the mid to
upper 70s lower 80s.

Previous discussion: as the clouds continue to thin out over the
next few hours, a light sely low-level flow will help produce some
stratus across portions of the piedmont. Confidence on how extensive
the clouds will be is still low, but I do expect at least a fair
amount of low clouds around daybreak or shortly thereafter. The
clouds will delay diurnal heating early, but guidance still agrees
on another round of scattered convection this aftn into early
evening. Forecast soundings show a lot more mid lvl moisture than
yesterday, and with MAX temps a category or two cooler, MAX cape
should be more in the 1000-2000 j kg range instead of the 2000-3000
j kg yesterday. So I expect less of a severe threat today. A few
storms could still be strong, especially in the mountains, where
they will be a little removed from the deeper mid-lvl moisture and
should have more sunshine this morning.

Tonight, a weak low will slowly drift NE over the fa and bring the
low-level flow around of the SW overnight. This flow, while losing
most of the upslope component, will have a little upglide with it,
helping produce some low stratus across portions of the piedmont. A
few isolated showers may linger in the upglide flow as well. Temps
will be slightly above normal under the cloud cover.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 230 am edt Tuesday: relatively zonal upper-level flow is
expected atop the region on Wednesday, but weak lobes of vorticity
embedded in this flow pattern could provide triggering over the
mountains during peak afternoon heating. Mid-level lapse rates
should spike back up to the 6.5 to 7 deg c km range, and the
convection allowing models feature activity developing along the
blue ridge mountains and running quickly eastward across the
foothills piedmont through the evening hours. Warm and moist
profiles look to be a limiting factor for much severe weather, but
very gusty winds will certainly be possible with any downbursts.

Heights will then fall sharply from the upper midwest through the
ohio valley Wednesday night through Thursday night. This will permit
a cold front to lay over north of the region and promote steadily
increasing deep moisture over our area south of the frontal zone.

Profiles exhibit precipitable water values over two inches in many
areas, but positive energy in the profiles looks a bit higher than
on wed., with an associated uptick in storm strength likely on
Thursday afternoon. Min temps remain two categories above climo
through the period, with maxes about one category above.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 245 am edt Tuesday: the best dynamic forcing associated with a
deep closed low over eastern quebec should pass north of the
forecast area Friday through Saturday, but with a trough axis
crossing the southern appalachians early in the period. An
associated cold front will lay over into the region, along with
continued abundant moisture. Numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop in this moist airmass as the
frontal zone and upper level forcing arrive on Friday.

The frontal zone draped across the area Friday night will gradually
settle south of the region through the weekend. The GFS remains more
aggressive than the ECMWF in pushing the boundary southward, but all
solutions keep some measure of moisture lingering north of the
frontal zone to promote clouds and precipitation and associated cold
air damming conditions. Although upper heights will generally build
again from the west through the weekend, some bagginess is indicated
in the height field west of the mountains. This could reinforce
intermittent, weak upglide and help to establish maintain damming
the rest of the weekend. Indeed, easterly flow and continued
moisture could permit cad-like conditions to linger into Monday.

Temperatures have been trimmed slightly for the sat-mon period, but
probably not enough if true damming develops. Will keep above climo
pops as well for mainly light rain showers. Any thunder should be
confined to the far southwest mountains.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
At kclt and elsewhere: well, the thick debris cloudiness held on
overnight across the piedmont, which really limited any fog or
stratus. The mountain valleys did fog up, but are starting to mix a
little and should scatter out by late morning. Kavl has already gone
vfr in last ob, but may go lifr again briefly during the first hour
of the taf. Once we start seeing convective CU popping, bases may
start out in the MVFR level, but may be patchy and quickly lift to
vfr by midday. The big story is a weak disturbance drifting over
central sc attm. This wave will cross the kclt area this aftn into
early evening, and guidance generally agrees on a cluster of shra
and tsra forming with it. Will go with tempo for 19-23z. The rest of
the TAF sites will be on the periphery of the wave, and should see
typical diurnal convection during the usual peak heating. So going
with vcts and prob30 for those sites. Guidance still not clear on
fog and stratus development tonight, but will trend with some cig
and vsby restrictions late, mainly in the nc sites (as confidence is
lower in the upstate).

Outlook: the potential for afternoon evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase later this week, as a cold
front approaches from the NW into Thursday. Morning fog and low
stratus will be possible each day across the mountain valleys.

Otherwise, expectVFR.

Confidence table...

15-21z 21-03z 03-09z 09-12z
kclt high 100% high 100% med 63% med 77%
kgsp med 61% high 96% high 100% high 90%
kavl high 100% high 100% high 95% med 71%
khky high 100% high 100% med 70% med 74%
kgmu med 63% high 86% high 100% med 75%
kand med 68% high 100% high 100% med 67%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi58 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 83°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi68 min SSE 7 G 8.9 79°F 1019.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi96 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1020.3 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi98 minN 010.00 miFair81°F71°F74%1022 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi94 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F72%1020.3 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi95 minN 010.00 miFair81°F71°F72%1020.6 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi94 minN 010.00 miOvercast78°F72°F82%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

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Last 24hrS6--5----SW3N6NE3NE7E5--------------CalmCalmS3S3W4W3S5
1 day ago4W4SW3CalmSW4S12--NW5CalmS3CalmS3----Calm------CalmS5--4--4
2 days agoSE5CalmCalmE6E7----NE7NE5E8SE5S3W3CalmNW3--CalmS4CalmCalm----W4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.