Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:12PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:58 AM EST (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 4:34AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 091159 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 659 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. The weather will be unsettled, with occasional rain until a cold front passes east of the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Rain is forecast to briefly change to snow before ending across the North Carolina mountains early Wednesday. Dry but cold high pressure will settle in behind the front for mid-week, with another storm system expected to bring precipitation late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 645 AM: Expansive sfc high pressure is centered off the Atlantic coast. Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave swinging across the northern Plains, and low pressure is developing in the Midwest as a result. Closer to home, a lobe of the offshore high extends inland over the Carolinas, manifesting as a wedge. Dewpoints are mostly in the 20s attm, with temps largely in the lower 40s. The Midwest low is already associated with a broad area of warm advection across the Southeast, and as the warm conveyor belt moves across the area today, a wave of rain will occur across the area. Latest PoPs refine the timing of the precip as suggested by recent hi-res model runs.

Model QPF reflects a significant boost to the lift in the upslope areas, which means PoPs only reach the likely range near the south-facing terrain. In fact, as the better midlevel winds exit to the east and north late in the day, the net forcing may diminish enough away from the Escarpment that a lull in precip will occur. The temp fcst will largely hinge on the expectation of evaporative cooling; the NAM as usual reflects this very strongly, and obs trends under showers so far this morning have shown sharp cooling on a local scale. However, with the parent high being so far offshore, it is a little questionable how effective the wedge will hold on in areas that see less rainfall. Virtually all guidance, even the NAM, brings sfc winds around to the south today, and this could easily bring temps well above normal if the wedge were not in play. Normally our short-term model consensus product does very well with wedge temps, and it depicts the warmer air making it about as far north as I-85. With this update I followed my earlier technique of blending in a bit of the NAM's temps to sharpen the gradient between "fully wedged" temps near the Blue Ridge and north of I-40, and above-normal values in the far southeast. Latest NAM is a bit more bullish with the wedge, which seems reasonable based on the local effects described above. The retreat of the wedge likely will lead to lowering ceilings and possibly areas of fog near the boundary, as the airmass becomes very shallow.

The sfc high will move east of Lake Huron by 00z, leading low to midlevel winds to veer, and drier air will advect in above 850 mb. The more westerly winds will be associated with a loss of the WAA and possibly even the onset of CAA at some levels. While mostly cloudy to overcast conditions should continue, PoPs will remain no better than slight-chance away from the more rugged terrain thru the evening. As the cold front nears in the early morning, the westerly flow will strengthen and further increase chances in the SW NC mountains and vicinity. Tonight's min temps generally will occur in the early evening, as the wedge loses its grip; even NAM trends do support considerable warming toward dawn in the southern Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 250 am Monday: The leading edge of a rather well-forced/moist cold front will begin to pass through the forecast area near the start of the short term period . moving somewhat slowly across and east of the area by Tue evening. With strong upper jet axis displaced well behind the front, much of the forcing/moisture will be found along and on the cold side of the boundary. Pops therefore increase gradually to categorical across the northwest half of the CWA by the end of Tuesday, reaching a nadir with 80-90 pops across the entire area Tue evening. Event total rainfall amounts will be rather tame . generally .5-1.0 inch in most areas, except across the high terrain of southwest NC, where 2-3 inches are possible.

The anafront nature of this scenario will create p-type concerns across mainly the NC mtns Tue night/early Wed, as cold air is expected to overspread the area while moisture and forcing are still in place (at least to some degree). Forecast soundings suggest a narrow transition zone to sleet and/or freezing rain will exist, but the bulk of precip wintry precip would most likely fall as snow. It's always tricky to nail down accums in these anafront events, and they tend to have a tendency to "disappoint," but current indications are that an inch or two will be possible across the TN border counties, with amounts likely tapering down quickly to little more than a dusting across the interior mountain counties. Surface should be quite warm before the transition to snow occurs, so accums would most likely be confined to grassy surfaces. Winter wx headlines are certainly not warranted at this juncture (and may never be with this event).

The remainder of the short term will see quickly drying conditions Wed morning, with chilly weather expected Wed into Wed night, when temps are forecast to be roughly 5 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 330 am Monday: A rather progressive upper air pattern will result in unsettled weather during much of the medium range, as a series of short wave troughs are forecast to interact with a baroclinic zone draped across the Southeast. The extended period will begin dry and cool, but pops will gradually ramp up late Thu into Friday, during which time moisture and upglide associated with a developing Gulf Coast surface wave are expected to overspread the Southeast. Owing to the cool and dry conditions, and precip falling Fri morning could fall as light freezing rain, mainly across the mountain valleys near the Blue Ridge and along the I-40 corridor in the Piedmont and foothills. While light accums cannot be ruled out, and pronounced in-situ/hybrid cold air damming will likely develop in response to any falling precip, current guidance indicates that parent surface high pressure will be in an unfavorable location to lock in sub-freezing temps for any significant length of time. Thus, a quick transition to rain is forecast by Fri afternoon. Likely pops will otherwise be advertised by Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday before slowly tapering off late Sat/Sat night. Dry conditions should return by Day 7. Temps will begin the period below normal, possibly ending up well below normal under Friday's cold air damming regime, then return to above-normal levels by Day 7.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Within an strengthening and increasingly moist warm-advection regime, areas of -SHRA/-DZ will occur this morning. LLJ into Great Lakes low pressure will amplify precip generation within this regime, and will form an in-situ CAD wedge. The most frequent/widespread precip is expected to be late morning to mid-afternoon when the WAA is strongest, during which time IFR (locally LIFR) cigs will set up. The strong winds aloft will pose a mentionable LLWS threat. Wedge front is expected to creep northward later in the day, which could result in areas of lower cigs/vsby near the front, as the stable airmass becomes very shallow. The loss of the LLJ will reduce precip rates late in the day, enough so that the precip mention is dropped at some sites, but areas of LLWS remain in the fcst. The wedge boundary may creep further northward tonight, but not likely far enough to permit any of the TAF sites to lift out of IFR/LIFR. Precip chances increase again from west to east Tuesday morning as cold front arrives.

Outlook: Widespread restrictions along with occasional rain are expected to persist thru at least early Wednesday; drier air behind the cold front is not expected to reach the area until that time. Dry high pressure should keep conditions settled Wed night and Thursday, but a moist low pressure system may bring back restrictions Thursday night or Friday.

Confidence Table .

12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z KCLT High 91% Med 69% Med 75% Med 75% KGSP High 95% Med 78% Med 79% Med 78% KAVL High 90% High 87% High 83% Med 76% KHKY High 86% High 80% Med 79% Med 74% KGMU High 95% High 80% High 81% Med 75% KAND High 95% High 85% High 80% Med 69%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . JDL NEAR TERM . 08 SHORT TERM . JDL LONG TERM . JDL AVIATION . 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi68 min Calm G 1.9 44°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi38 min Calm G 1.9 45°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi66 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast43°F30°F60%1021.2 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi68 minN 07.00 miRain43°F33°F71%1022 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi64 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast43°F34°F71%1020.9 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F36°F79%1022.2 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi64 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F28°F55%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE7E8
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E56NW3NE53NE6NE6NE6N4NE4N5NE5NE5N5N3N6NW3N4NE3CalmN3
1 day agoCalmN3NE7E11E9NE10E7
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2 days agoS5S5S4SW6SW6SW7SW5S3S4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNW4N3N4N3NW3CalmNW4N6N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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