Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 190243 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1043 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak low pressure system will track east across North Carlina through tonight, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening and tonight. The low will exit off the Carolina Coast on Sunday, with high pressure building in from the north. Somewhat drier conditions return early next week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1045 PM Saturday: Ongoing convection developing in the vicinity of the backdoor front is encroaching the NC/SC state line and will continue to slowly shift southward. With the loss of daytime heating, the severe threat is very low, but the hydro threat remains as the storms anchor along the boundary underneath high PWAT values. Otherwise, low stratus quickly filters in behind the front and is evident via satellite imagery.

The mid/upper trof, positively tilted, is expected to move eastward across the fcst area tonight. As this happens, we should see the better mid/upper forcing slide to the east this evening. What we lose at mid/upper levels we gain at low levels, so there should be some organization moving in from the west this evening. However, most of the CAMs weaken the convection to our west before it ever gets here. We will just have to keep an eye on it, and particularly the rainfall response. If the back door boundary makes it down over Upstate SC, there could be enough low level convergence to possibly anchor some storms near the Escarpment. Don't think the coverage of storms and duration will warrant any Flood Watch. Low temps should remain about a category above normal.

On Sunday, the upper trof will gradually move off to the east. Drier air moving down from the northeast will help to push the front further down and south of the fcst area, so precip chances should drop in the afternoon. The exception will be the mtns, as continued low level easterly upslope will help to maintain showers and a few storms. That flow regime should keep temps about five below normal for the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday: Mid level ridging and weak surface high pressure will be in place across the region during the short range period. This will lead to a general drying of the atmosphere and lack of rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. The exception to this will be over the favored high elevations where a shower or two will be possible each afternoon during peak heating.

With the ridging and more sunshine in place, afternoon highs will climb from the upper 70s in the mountain valleys and lower 80s in the Piedmont on Monday to the lower to middle 80s respectively on Tuesday. In other words, near climo on Monday and slightly above climo on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the region for the middle of next week, but a weak trof should weaken the ridge by the end of the week. High temperatures in the Piedmont are expected to warm into the middle to upper 80s through this period with lower to middle 80s expected in the mountain valleys, all a few degrees above climo.

A more active convective pattern is expected toward the end of the week with the breakdown of the ridge.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering VFR/MVFR low clouds will continue to fill in as ongoing thunderstorms moves from the CLT metro and shifts southward through the evening hours. Included a TEMPO fo TSRA and associated restrictions at all TAF sites, with the NC TAF sites starting now through roughly 04Z, while the Upstate sites get in on the action a little later (now-06Z). Winds will shift behind the thunderstorms as a backdoor front moves in and shifts winds to a north-northeasterly component. Winds will gradually pick up in speed behind the front as well, which helps prevent widespread fog development. Lingering showers overnight into the mid-morning hours will mainly hover over the Upstate sites and KAVL, but will be isolated in nature. Another player in the forecast is the low stratus deck that will develop behind the front overnight. Have all sites going IFR starting late this evening through mid-morning Sunday before slowly lifting and scattering out by Sunday afternoon.
Can't rule out LIFR cigs as well underneath the stratus deck at any of the sites. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across KAVL and maybe the Upstate sites, but confidence was only high enough for a PROB30 mention at KAVL. Will have to watch trends for the Upstate TAF sites by the 06Z update.

Outlook: SHRA/TSRA remain possible Sunday afternoon and perhaps even Sunday night until stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday. Late night/early morning restrictions in low stratus and/or fog will remain possible Sunday night; isolated mountaintop convection still appears possible Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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