Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frisco, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 8:30 PM Tuesday...Forecast in good shape with minimal changes for the evening update.

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to slide offshore today and sustain warm and moist air advection into ENC.
This, along with increasing high clouds, will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees warmer tonight than last night with lows dipping to the upper-50s to low-60s.

An Air Quality Alert is in effect for Jones and Craven counties due to due to the ongoing Black Swamp Wildfire. With S/SW winds continuing to advect smoke to the north, the NCDAQ has extended the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for Jones County until midnight Wednesday. In addition, the NCDAQ has issued a Code Orange Air Quality Day for Craven County for the same timeframe.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As of 3 PM Tuesday...A mid-level shortwave to our north has continued to track further south. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored offshore while a cold front will sag south across VA. Given the southward trend of the mid-level shortwave, the cold front has trended slightly farther south as well. Therefore, PoPs have been increased for tomorrow afternoon with the greatest chances being along and north of Highway 264. With southwest flow and mostly sunny skies, inland areas will warm into the upper-80s with dews in the 60s. This will generate enough instability to support a few rumbles of thunder but with the better forcing displaced to our north and meager shear, some storms could be strong but should remain sub-severe.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES: -Next potential cold front impacts the area this weekend bringing unsettled weather to ENC

Thursday...As we get into Thurs ridge remains off the Southeast Coast with stalled front lifting north as a warm front as a developing low in the Southern Plains pushes NE'wards towards the Midwest keeping things dry and warm. With persistent SW'rly WAA regime and increasing low level thicknesses, expect highs to get into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX while lows get down into the low to mid 60s each night. Will note for Wed, if cloudcover is more expansive and thicker than currently forecast high temps on Wed could be too warm by several degrees especially along our northern zones.

Friday into early next week... A fairly complex pattern sets up across the region this weekend into early next week. General trends have been for upper ridging to finally push offshore by Friday while the southern stream flattening upper trough then pivots across the Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, trough across the northern Plains pushes E'wards and deepens as it nears the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday. At the surface, deepening low pressure in the Midwest continues to track north and east towards Canada while its associated cold front quickly sweeps E'wards across the Ohio River Valley on Friday with a prefrontal trough setting up across the Triad on Friday as well. Cold front eventually nears and pushes off the Eastern Seaboard Sat into Sun. Overall guidance is in good agreement that this will result in precip chances Fri and Sat with the first round associated with the prefrontal trough Fri afternoon and evening and the second round associated with the passage of the cold front. GFS is once again the wettest guidance overall bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms both Fri afternoon into Sat while the ECMWF and Canadian has only limited precip Fri with most of the precip occuring with the frontal passage on Sat. As a result, have increasing precip chances from Fri afternoon into Sat with some likely PoPs noted on Sat given better confidence in precip occuring this day.
Either way, most guidance does suggest we see thunderstorms during this time period with ensemble guidance showing at least a 50-70% chance of MLCAPE values above 500 J/kg both Fri afternoon and on Sat across ENC. With increasing wind shear expected as the upper trough approaches there is at least a low end concern for stronger storms either Fri or Sat. CIPS guidance as well as some ML/AI guidance does continue to hint at a non zero threat for severe weather so will have to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see if the threat increases or decreases with the approach of the aforementioned front.

From Sunday and beyond this is where the upper level pattern and therefore surface pattern becomes more uncertain with lower than average confidence in the forecast from Sun onwards. GFS is the most progressive with the upper level pattern allowing upper trough to push out to sea before cutting off and allowing an Omega block to become centered directly over the Eastern Seaboard.
While both Canadian and ECMWF guidance cuts the trough off around the Eastern Seaboard with an omega block setting up further to the west. If the GFS pattern were to verify, high pressure ridge would settle into the region and bring benign weather to the area. If the Canadian/ECMWF pattern were to verify front would stall near the coast with an upper low sitting over the Mid-Atlantic allowing for continued unsettled weather into early next week. Will have to monitor trends either way to see how things shake out. Otherwise above avg temps continue ahead of the front on Fri before temps trend closer to avg over the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions trough the TAF period. Moderate SW winds persist overnight will keep lower levels mixed preventing fog formation. A front will sag into NE NC tomorrow afternoon and could see an isolated tstm north of Hwy 264 late in the afternoon which may bring brief sub-VFR conditions.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure ridging will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Thursday bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the week. There is a low end chance at seeing some sub-VFR conditions on Friday with the approach of a prefrontal trough with better chances at sub-VFR conditions this weekend as a cold front pushes through the area bringing the potential for shower and thunderstorms to the area.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...Winds will remain southwesterly through the period. Winds have increased to 15-20 kt across the sounds and Alligator River. Have seen some gusts to around 25 kt this evening but will keep occasional mention at this time and monitor trends for a possible SCA if winds get much stronger.
Similar conditions will persist tomorrow with gusts near 25 kt possible across the central and southern waters. 2-3 ft seas will build to 3-4 ft tonight with some 5 ft seas developing across the central waters late tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Minor changes to the forecast especially for Wed on this update. High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Friday. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions until this weekend. A cold front will approach the area and recent trends suggest it will now stall near our northern waters which will allow for SW'rly winds to increase closer to 10-20 kts while seas remain around 2-4 ft. With this front now expected to be slightly closer, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are becoming likely especially along our northern waters Wed afternoon and evening.
As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW'rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. We do finally see our streak of benign boating conditions come to an end this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Fri and Sat increasing winds closer to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and 3-5 ft seas resulting in the potential for SCA conditions at the end of the workweek and into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for NCZ092-193-194.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ196-199-204.
MARINE...None.