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FXUS64 KLZK 300008 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 608 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

With high pressure in place and southerly flow, cloud cover will be increasing through the period. The center of high pressure circulation will move closer to the east coast (GA/SC), with southerly low-level flow in place across the south-central U.S. and Gulf states. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area.

A 500mb SWT and surface storm system will move eastward across the southern states through Thurs night/Fri. The storm system will become well-organized as it moves across OK/TX Thursday. Wind speeds will increase with the system, with a low-level jet 50-60kt and surface winds gusting up to 30-35 mph across southern portions of the state. This strong southerly flow will return Gulf moisture to the region, increasing PWAT values to around 1" across northern AR to 1.5"+ across southern portions of the state by Thursday afternoon/evening.

There is more confidence in a severe storm threat south of the state, but some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible in our CWA, especially across our southern counties.
Locally heavy rainfall and hail are the most likely threats with some of the stronger storms. Overall forecast rainfall ranges from around three-quarters to a little over an inch across northern and eastern AR, and between one inch to one-and-three-quarters of an inch elsewhere in the state. Rain and storms are forecast to exit the state before Friday afternoon.

Due to increased cloud cover and widespread rain chances, forecast high temperatures Thursday will be in the lower to upper 50s. By Friday afternoon, highs will reach the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the lower 40s, and in the mid to upper 40s Thursday night.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Medium range will not be nearly as active as the short term but some low end precipitation chances will be necessary, especially early on. Medium range models are in decent agreement with just the usual timing differences in some of the finer details. That being said, will use a blend of forecast solutions this afternoon.

Period initiates with the cold front largely responsible for the unsettled condtions in the short term period south and east of the Mississippi River. Area will still be in pronounced SW flow aloft with a rather amplified pattern in place characterized by western CONUS troughing and subsequent upstream ridging.

Shortwave moving to the southeast of the state will bring widely scattered showers to the south and southeast parts of the state Friday night and into early Saturday. No appreciable precipitation is expected from this feature. A weak cold front will move through the state Saturday night but again, only minimal precipitation chances are warranted. A few more weak impulses may brush the state but will hold off on any precipitation chances for now as the aforementioned western trough lifts out and places the area in west to northwest flow aloft.

With no real cold air in sight, temperatures will continue to run above seasonal averages. However, guidance does show some colder air trying to get in here towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conds wl prevail thru at least the overnight hrs. Lower clouds wl incrs fm the SW toward daybreak with low end VFR/MVFR CIGS bcmg widespread. Showers/embedded thunder wl also overspread the FA Thu, with flight conds deteriorating further. Look for MVFR/IFR conds to be common by the aftn hrs.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 2 AM CST Friday for ARZ047- 057-064-065-069.

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