Atkins, AR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atkins, AR

June 14, 2024 4:07 PM CDT (21:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 12:38 PM   Moonset 12:31 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atkins, AR
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Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024


(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a surface based cumulus field developing over northwest Arkansas. Within this cumulus field, looping the visible satellite imagery time series shows subtle waves propagating through the field from northeast to southwest indicating that the surface based cumulus has hit a level of stable preventing vertical growth. At least in the very short term (next couple of hours) this should prevent any rain shower or isolated thunderstorm activity from developing. Surface weather observations showed temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state with dew point values at or around 70 degrees. This left heat index values in the 90s to 100 degrees for most locations. In addition to the heat and relatively high humidity, the winds were very light across the state making it fairly unpleasant for outdoor activities this afternoon across the state.

Aside from the heat which will only gradually increase this afternoon and remain in place through Father's Day weekend, models that past couple of days have been hinting at the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern Arkansas this afternoon into early this evening. Those models were firing this convection off of a weak surface boundary that is supposed to be in place in this same area, however early afternoon observations don't show much of a boundary in place. It is admittedly difficult to determine given the very weak wind field in place, however gradients of temperature and humidity and their thermodynamic brethren (e.g. Virtual Temperature, Equivalent Potential Temperature, etc) were also quite subtle and difficult to pick out any coherent surface based feature. Most convective allowing model guidance has actually backed off on advertising any precipitation in this area, but there are a couple of exceptions.
Kept a 10-20 percent rain chance across far northern Arkansas to account for a subtle feature that I can't find that the short range high resolution guidance may be picking up on. Based on the aforementioned appearance of the early afternoon cumulus field, no convective development is imminent, but something to keep an eye on through sunset.

Otherwise the synoptic pattern will be characterized by upper level ridging intensifying but also moving off to the east through the weekend. Most model guidance keeps a shortwave ridge axis extended over Arkansas through the weekend which should keep rain chances very low while keeping the heat and humidity dialed up. As the ridge axis continues to move east into early next week, it should at least allow for some additional cloud cover if not rain chances to cause the heat to back off at least a tiny bit for the week ahead.


(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

To begin in the upper levels, an expansive ridge should be situated across the Srn Appalachians with SWrly flow positioned across the nations mid-section. At the surface, high pressure should be well to the E of AR with low pressure parked across the Nrn Plains.
Resultant low-level and upper level SWrly flow will advect moisture latent warm air into the region between these features.

Sunday however will be rather hot under mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures should climb into the mid and upper 90s. When combining humid conditions with hot temperatures, apparent Ts should range from 100 to near 105 degrees. At this time, apparent Ts greater than 105 seem very spotty and localized, thus my thinking is readings will fall just short of heat advisory headlines.

By Monday, a storm system currently over the Gulf of Mexico is progged to lift Nwrd into the region by early to mid week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this feature, which in turn should lower expected high temperatures over the next several days by a few to several degrees. High temperatures beyond Sunday should range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Batesville AR 72 96 73 96 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 68 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 70 92 71 93 / 10 10 0 10 Hot Springs AR 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 71 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 69 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 71 93 71 94 / 10 20 0 10 Newport AR 74 97 74 98 / 0 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 72 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 74 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KRUE RUSSELLVILLE RGNL,AR 5 sm14 minno data10 smClear93°F66°F41%29.95
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