Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atkins, AR

DISCUSSION
Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After several days of a more active pattern Friday will be a small respite from rain and t'storms before the trough that has been driving these last several days of activity ejects to the east.
Before that a fast moving ridge will build over the region Friday.
This will allow for temps to soar to near record levels, especially in E and NE AR.

To push out the ridge a H500 shortwave based over the Baja Peninsula and the parent trough coming off the Rockies will eject in phase across Central CONUS, and drag a cooler and very dry airmass out of the High Plains across the region. Along the leading edge of the cold front will be our next chance for shower and t'storm activity.
As a broken record once again: storms will initially develop to our north and west, begin to fall apart over the FA, and then ramp back up to the east. FROPA timing will be the culprit of the weakening storms of this system. A stout 850-700mb inversion will prevent any prefrontal convective initiation across our area through Friday evening. As the cldfrnt approaches any activity along the front will be shredded by the combined mid level and diurnal inversions in NW AR. Precip will become widely scattered by the time it reaches Central AR. The best chance for rain with this system will be mid afternoon Sat as a weak mid-level secondary front forms across the center of the FA. Any showers that form along this front will be elevated and pose no risk of severe.

Sat evening is the best of a limited chance for anything to develop quickly along the front and become strong to severe the AR/LA/MS corner. A quick stream of deeper moisture will collide with the front late in the afternoon and pulse t'storms back up along the front. Guidance has be rather consistent on the happening just to the south and east of our FA, but if the front is slower moving than anticipated, the bottom rows of counties in our area could see a stronger storm around sunset Sat.

Sunday temps will hold to near normal behind the front. But the airmass trailing the front will be extremely dry. Min RHs are expected to be at or below critical values both Sunday and Monday afternoons. There will likely be several areas that will not receive any meaningful rainfall from the preceding system. Winds and gusts have slightly trended up over the last few model runs but remain below and threshold that would spark large scale fire concerns.
Irregardless these low Min RHs and extreme drought any areas avoiding meaningful rainfall this week would have localized elevated fire risk.

By Tuesday a ridge will spread across the center of the country and return southerly flow to the region. This will bring some moisture and warmer temps back into the region. Temps will return to above normal by Weds and continue to climb into next weekend.

Mid range ensembles are picking up on a very subtle shortwave forming along the eastern edge of the ridge in the mid to late week.
Depending on moisture return to the region Tues into Weds some weak shower activity could form across the state. As of now confidence in this producing anything is low, but it is worth watching for as any rainfall would be appreciated at this point.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Some patchy MVFR conditions are possible this morning...but expect dominant VFR conditions to continue through at least this evening
Breezy SRLY winds will be seen by this afternoon
with some of these winds relaxing by tonight. A cold front will drop southeast into the state tonight into early Sat morning...with chances for some convection returning by after midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 87 58 67 42 / 10 70 80 10 Camden AR 88 64 73 43 / 0 20 90 50 Harrison AR 83 49 61 38 / 20 90 40 0 Hot Springs AR 87 58 70 42 / 10 50 80 20 Little Rock AR 88 61 70 43 / 0 40 80 20 Monticello AR 88 66 75 46 / 0 10 90 60 Mount Ida AR 85 56 67 41 / 10 60 70 20 Mountain Home AR 84 51 62 38 / 30 80 50 0 Newport AR 88 59 71 43 / 10 50 80 20 Pine Bluff AR 89 64 73 43 / 0 20 90 50 Russellville AR 87 57 67 40 / 10 60 60 10 Searcy AR 88 58 70 41 / 10 50 80 20 Stuttgart AR 88 63 73 44 / 0 30 90 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.