Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dardanelle, AR
December 5, 2023 7:30 PM CST (01:30 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 5:01PM Moonrise 12:00AM Moonset 1:00PM
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 052318 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 518 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across the state this afternoon and evening which will provide drier air and gusty NW winds through sunset. Sfc ridging will build over the state tonight into Wednesday which will provide cooler temperatures and lighter winds to the area. Overnight lows are expected to approach of fall below freezing for much of the state tonight.
Sfc ridging will slowly shift eastward on Wednesday. This will allow cooler temperatures to reside across eastern Arkansas whereas western parts of the state could warm further as srly winds develop by afternoon.
Warmer temperatures are expected by Thursday as the sfc ridge will be to the southeast and H500 ridging builds over the region.
Ahead of the weekend storm system, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten and srly winds will begin to increase especially across W/NW Arkansas Thursday afternoon. Td values will begin to increase across these areas as well.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
EURO? More like EUR-NO! Kidding aside, 12Z guidance today stands in stark opposition to output from 24 hours ago concerning impactful weather this weekend, which is more evidence to support following trends/ensembles over straight deterministic runs. Put another way: live by the models, die by the models!
While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the positioning/timing of this system, overall fcst thinking has not shifted dramatically one way or another. Still expecting a large, deepening upper trough to cross the Rockies by late Fri, and as height falls overspread areas downstream of the trough, sfc cyclogenesis will be favored along a SW-to-NE oriented front draped across TX/OK/MO. Low-level mass fields will respond with a significant ramp-up in WAA and poleward moisture transport across the area with well above average temps Fri/Sat and dewpoint temps increasing from the 30s F to 50s/60s F by Sat morning.
Within the developing warm sector, instability is expected to increase in tandem with moisture advection and at least some diurnal heating. With ongoing timing uncertainties, however, confidence in the footprint of more robust CAPE (i.e., >1000 J/kg) remains quite low as does the Nrn extent of higher instability values. What's more consistently apparent with this system is the likelihood of very dynamic wind fields through the depth of the troposphere.
Still seeing a strong signal for flow on the order of 100 kts in the mid/upper levels with a respectable 30 to 40 kts within the LLJ on Sat. Additionally, the orientation of the frontal boundary along which the sfc cyclone will propagate suggests winds across the warm sector will remain Srly to SSErly, thus maintaining good flow curvature (GFS point fcst soundings show >200 m^2/s^2 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH, for example). Too early to hash out specific magnitudes for severe threats, but all hazards remain possible, whether in or near AR.
The parent upper trough will most likely eject to the E sometime late Sat or Sun with a strong cold front plowing thru in the process. Much drier air will punch in behind the front and scour out most of the moisture, although some wrap around moisture may linger over Nrn sections thru the early morning hours on Sun. Despite large deterministic uncertainties, ensemble support remains for light snowfall and potentially minor accums on the order of a couple tenths of an inch. Impacts are not expected from any wintry precip that may occur.
Canadian sfc ridging will settle over the area as we head into next week. This will promote more seasonable temps and generally calm weather to end the period.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the period with gusty winds easing off through the overnight hours. Winds are expected to be out of the northwest overnight before becoming out of the southeast Wednesday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 31 51 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 32 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 28 54 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 32 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 35 53 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 35 54 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 31 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 29 50 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 30 50 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 33 52 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 30 54 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 31 50 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 33 51 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 518 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across the state this afternoon and evening which will provide drier air and gusty NW winds through sunset. Sfc ridging will build over the state tonight into Wednesday which will provide cooler temperatures and lighter winds to the area. Overnight lows are expected to approach of fall below freezing for much of the state tonight.
Sfc ridging will slowly shift eastward on Wednesday. This will allow cooler temperatures to reside across eastern Arkansas whereas western parts of the state could warm further as srly winds develop by afternoon.
Warmer temperatures are expected by Thursday as the sfc ridge will be to the southeast and H500 ridging builds over the region.
Ahead of the weekend storm system, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten and srly winds will begin to increase especially across W/NW Arkansas Thursday afternoon. Td values will begin to increase across these areas as well.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
EURO? More like EUR-NO! Kidding aside, 12Z guidance today stands in stark opposition to output from 24 hours ago concerning impactful weather this weekend, which is more evidence to support following trends/ensembles over straight deterministic runs. Put another way: live by the models, die by the models!
While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the positioning/timing of this system, overall fcst thinking has not shifted dramatically one way or another. Still expecting a large, deepening upper trough to cross the Rockies by late Fri, and as height falls overspread areas downstream of the trough, sfc cyclogenesis will be favored along a SW-to-NE oriented front draped across TX/OK/MO. Low-level mass fields will respond with a significant ramp-up in WAA and poleward moisture transport across the area with well above average temps Fri/Sat and dewpoint temps increasing from the 30s F to 50s/60s F by Sat morning.
Within the developing warm sector, instability is expected to increase in tandem with moisture advection and at least some diurnal heating. With ongoing timing uncertainties, however, confidence in the footprint of more robust CAPE (i.e., >1000 J/kg) remains quite low as does the Nrn extent of higher instability values. What's more consistently apparent with this system is the likelihood of very dynamic wind fields through the depth of the troposphere.
Still seeing a strong signal for flow on the order of 100 kts in the mid/upper levels with a respectable 30 to 40 kts within the LLJ on Sat. Additionally, the orientation of the frontal boundary along which the sfc cyclone will propagate suggests winds across the warm sector will remain Srly to SSErly, thus maintaining good flow curvature (GFS point fcst soundings show >200 m^2/s^2 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH, for example). Too early to hash out specific magnitudes for severe threats, but all hazards remain possible, whether in or near AR.
The parent upper trough will most likely eject to the E sometime late Sat or Sun with a strong cold front plowing thru in the process. Much drier air will punch in behind the front and scour out most of the moisture, although some wrap around moisture may linger over Nrn sections thru the early morning hours on Sun. Despite large deterministic uncertainties, ensemble support remains for light snowfall and potentially minor accums on the order of a couple tenths of an inch. Impacts are not expected from any wintry precip that may occur.
Canadian sfc ridging will settle over the area as we head into next week. This will promote more seasonable temps and generally calm weather to end the period.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the period with gusty winds easing off through the overnight hours. Winds are expected to be out of the northwest overnight before becoming out of the southeast Wednesday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 31 51 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 32 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 28 54 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 32 54 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 35 53 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 35 54 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 31 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 29 50 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 30 50 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 33 52 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 30 54 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 31 50 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 33 51 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRUE RUSSELLVILLE RGNL,AR | 7 sm | 37 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 27°F | 37% | 30.29 | |
Wind History from RUE
(wind in knots)
Little Rock, AR,
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