Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 8:59 PM   Moonset 6:10 AM

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FXUS64 KLZK 251151 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 651 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Latest sfc observations show that a stationary bndry was situated roughly along a line from KMEZ to KLLQ. Sfc dewpoints were well into the 60s south of the fnt, with 50s common to the north. Sctd showers/ few storms have been forming over the last few hrs north of the fnt as the first in a series of upper impulses apchs the FA fm the west.

The aforementioned front wl slowly lift back to the north as a warm fnt later today and tngt as a strengthening sfc low over the eastern Rockies lifts to the northeast. Convective chcs today and tngt wl be concentrated mainly north of the warm fnt. Cannot rule out a few sub- severe hailers today, but organized severe wx is not expected.

This scenario wl also produce quite the range in high temps today acrs the FA. Far southern AR wl top out in the lower 80s, with parts of north AR struggling to reach to the 60 degree mark.

The bndry is expected to lift north of AR by Fri mrng, with a warm and humid airmass firmly in place. Initially, PoPs early Fri wl be confined to parts of northern and western AR, assocd with overnight convection movg in fm eastern OK.

Conds are expected to destabilize further to the east Fri aftn, which could lead to additional strong or severe storm formation. The extent of the severe potential rmns uncertain as much depends how convection earlier in the day evolves. Lingering cloud cover is a primary factor in this case. Overall threat of severe wx wl diminish later Fri ngt, along with a gradual decrease in precip coverage as the main upper support begins to shift north of the region.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will be present most of the long-term forecast period of Saturday through Tuesday. In the upper lvls, a series of closed lows and SWTs will approach the region. In tandem at the sfc, a series of low pressure systems will remain in the Central Plains region of the CONUS with their attendant southward extending cold front and dryline in cohesion with a warm front and/or stationary boundary well north of the state that will allow for a large warm sector to open up across the Southern Plains into the Mid-South regions of the CONUS. At the current time, a slight risk of severe weather will be possible across portions of Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday as all modes of severe weather will be possible. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the CWA through Wednesday when the trof axis finally pushes over the Mid- South region of the CONUS and the sfc cold front finally moves across the state of Arkansas on Monday, but becomes a stationary front stalled out across the southern part of the state on Tuesday keeping POP chances in the forecast across the CWA through Tuesday.
Into Wednesday, the stationary boundary pushes well south of the state as a cold front and a sfc high pressure center placed across the Tennessee River Valley will bring dry conditions back to the much of the Natural State for part of the day with considerably lower POP chances.

All modes of severe weather will be possible over the days of Saturday and with a greater chance of severe weather across the CWA on Sunday. Saturday severe weather chances will be reserved to northwestern Arkansas and Sunday severe weather chances will be more widespread across Arkansas. Note subsequent future forecast packages as the threats this weekend become clearer and will present a greater confidence overall in future discussion; however, preparations for severe weather need to be made across the CWA in respect to all modes of severe weather including flash flooding.

A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of excessive rainfall over the period of Saturday and Sunday in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state and CWA
The threat itself needs to be treated in the same capacity of the threat of the traditional all modes of severe weather associated with a few tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and large hail.

Temperatures over this period will be slightly above normal with respect to both low and high temperatures over this period compared to climatological normals.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Warm fnt wl be slowly working to the north over the FA thru the PD. Moisture wl cont to incrs along and north of the bndry, with a combo of MVFR/VFR conds expected. Convection wl cont to incrs in coverage north of the bndry as well today, with IFR conds becoming common by this aftn over north AR into tngt. Areal coverage wl decrease south of the fnt later today and tngt, with mainly VFR conds returning. Kept VC groups included as well into tngt.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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