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FXUS64 KLZK 061716 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1116 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

CURRENTLY:

As of 3 AM CST, decent CAA is taking place across the state as the drier and colder airmass behind the FROPA from Tuesday has infiltrated into the state.

WEDNESDAY (TODAY):

The result of a drier and colder airmass is visible across the CWA. Temperatures this morning will continue to dive to around sunrise and be noticeably colder than yesterday morning by 5 to 10 degrees in most locations. During the day on Wednesday, a sfc high pressure center will meander from west to east across the CWA. The positioning of this feature will be key as locations west of this region of high pressure will begin to see southerly winds while those areas remaining east of this region of high pressure will continue to see northerly winds. Simply put, locations across the western Arkansas may be a few degrees warmer than locations across eastern Arkansas. However, overall this difference in high temperatures wouldn't be drastic, but worth the mention. Expect low temperatures on Wednesday around sunrise to be slightly below climatological normals for this time of the year and high temperatures to be near or at climatological normals for this time of the year. Expect clear skies and light winds on Wednesday with temperatures overall colder than those experienced on Tuesday (yesterday).

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT:

The sfc high pressure that meandered across the state on Wednesday will continue tracking eastward away from the CWA. A return to southerly and southwesterly winds will be noted across the entire CWA. The return to predominately southerly and southwesterly winds coupled with an upper lvl ridge that slides over the state will be the perfect recipe for temperatures to rebound from Wednesday as the airmass becomes modified with warmer and more moist air. Expect overall a continuation of dry conditions with a slight increase in clouds from west to east across the CWA as well as an increase in wind speed. Temperatures on Thursday will be on average from 5 to 10 degrees higher than climatological normals for early into mid December.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

I am happy to report that the ECMWF continues to behave itself and has not returned to its snowmageddon output with this weekends system. In fact, no appreciable changes were made to the current forecast package other than to increase the timing of said system a little bit more. While the models are generally on the same synoptic page, uncertainty remains in the finer details which is pretty much par for the course several days out.

The period initiates with a large upper trough over the Rockies and ridging over the Ohio Valley. Placement of these features puts the FA in deepening southwest flow aloft. Atmosphere will continue to moisten up Friday with the trough deepening quickly as it moves into the western high plains Friday night. Precipitation chances will ramp up considerably Friday night with elevated thunderstorms bringing the possibility of some large hail to the western part of the forecast area.

Come Friday night, significant height falls are forecast in advance of the deepening trough which will lead to surface cyclogenesis on a frontal boundary orientated from central texas and into eastern Oklahoma. Surface low will be racing off to the northeast with the center of circulation over central MO and the front starting to make its way into Arkansas around sunrise Saturday.

Front will move quickly to the east and be well east of the MS River by sunset Saturday. There appears to be a small window for strong thunderstorms mainly over the east as the front blasts through. Wind energy with this system is impressive. However, instability is not off the chart but does increase over the south and southeast, aided by any diurnal heating. Although winds are likely the primary concern, it should be noted that all modes of severe weather will be possible. System will draw in plenty of moisture as well with widespread rain amounts in excess of an inch likely.

Parent trough will swing through Saturday day night through early Sunday bringing drier and seasonable temperatures with it. Quick shot of wrap around moisture could produce a few flakes on the backside of the departing trough but little if any accumulation or impacts are anticipated.

Higher pressure will move in for the remainder of the period with temperatures very close to where they should be for mid December.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions to persist through the period. Winds will generally remain light and variable today but as sfc ridging shifts eastward, srly winds will develop. N AR terminals are expected to see winds aoa 10 kts with gusts approaching 20 kts near the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 37 62 43 62 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 34 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 38 64 46 61 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 36 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 38 64 46 65 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 37 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 36 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 37 63 44 60 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 36 61 43 62 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 36 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 35 65 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 34 62 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 36 62 44 63 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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