Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Russellville, AR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:31PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:15 AM CDT (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:54PMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Russellville, AR
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location: 35.3, -93.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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Fxus64 klzk 202321 aaa
afdlzk
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service little rock ar
621 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

Aviation
For the 00z tafs,VFR conditions are expected initially, but
through the overnight and morning hours expect thunderstorms to
impact all terminals, resulting in reduced conditions. Strong
winds are expected through the forecast period, with gusts near 20
kts common. Wind shear is also expected, especially overnight and
through the early to mid morning hours. Conditions should improve
from west to east through Monday.

Prev discussion (issued 255 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019)
short term... Tonight through Monday night
southwest flow aloft is over arkansas ahead of an upper level low
which is located over the rockies. The upper low will slide to the
east tonight into the plains and then into the midwest on Monday.

The flow over arkansas will become west late Monday night due to
the low being to the north of the state.

The warm front continues to lift through the state this afternoon
and should be in north arkansas this evening. Warm and moist air
will be over the region with increasing dew points. Current dew
points are in the mid 50s to lower 70s. The latest sounding
indicates strong winds aloft, 105kts at 34000 feet. With southeast
winds at the surface and southwest to west winds aloft, a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out tonight. The cold front in the plains
will move into west arkansas late in the evening, through central
arkansas during the morning hours, and exit the southeast during the
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with
some severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail are the
main threats. Since these are going to move through during the
night, we need to stress that people should have an action plan
ready in case severe weather approaches. The rain will taper off
from west to east during the day Monday. High pressure will build
over the state during the afternoon and evening.

Most areas will have mild low temperatures tonight in the lower 50s
to lower 70s. Highs on Monday will be cooler in the mid 60s to mid
70s.

Long term... Tuesday through Sunday
tranquil weather can be expected to begin the long term. Aloft, a
very strong low pressure should be lifting northeast across the
great lakes region residing within an expansive trough spanning two-
thirds of the eastern conus. The trough axis should extend southward
from this low into the oh and tn valleys on Tuesday. West of the ms
river, dominate northwesterly flow will be in place across the
remainder of the CONUS providing large scale subsidence aloft. At
the surface, high pressure will begin to settle into the region in
the wake of a strong cold front. Much drier and cooler air will
filter into the region on northerly westerly flow. Wednesday, the
upper pattern becomes zonal as a new trough begins to dig across the
northern rockies. Surface high pressure will begin to pull away from
the region allowing near surface winds to switch from a westerly
component to a southwesterly direction.

On Thursday, the upper trough ejects into the upper plains as
cyclogenesis takes place over the northern plains. A cold front is
expected to develop INVOF the low and begin to approach the state.

Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over ks mo. At this point, moisture return should be rather
limited thus severe weather is not anticipated at this time. This
activity is expected to move across the state from northwest to
southeast on Thursday. Precipitation chances will quickly diminish
across the southern half of the state away from best lift and upper
level dynamics. Up to this point, the long term model guidance has
been in fairly good agreement with timing and placement of synoptic
scale features.

Heading into Friday, large differences arise in model guidance, gfs
becomes more progressive and quickly ejects the upper trough into
the northeast with upper ridging quick on its heels across the
southern rockies, this solution would bring the shortest duration of
rainfall to the state and a nice dry upcoming weekend. However,
ecmwf and cmc model guidance suggest a piece of energy will detach
from the main trough swinging across the rockies. This piece of
energy would then deepen into a closed low and slowly eject into the
deep south. Both of these models would prolong rain chances through
Sunday morning across the natural state with the development of a
surface low. The surface low may trek just north and west of the
state, possibly across the ozarks, providing plenty of cloud cover
in areas not seeing rainfall. Unfortunately, these long term models
have held their own with regards to consistency resulting in low
confidence in any one solution. Pops and temperature forecast
during this period will reflect this level of confidence.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s
through Thursday. Friday and Saturday should have highs in the 50s
and 60s and lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Highs will be
cooler on Friday and Saturday due to cloud cover and rainfall.

Lzk watches warnings advisories None.

Aviation... Cross


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Russelville Municipal Airport, AR4 mi22 minSSE 77.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain69°F64°F87%1000.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRUE

Wind History from RUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE63SE56E53SE45E3SE3CalmSE546CalmS11
G21
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS33Calm356CalmNE5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4556E56E644CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Little Rock, AR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Little Rock, AR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.