Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bakersfield, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. A slight chance (10%-20%) of high Sierra Nevada afternoon thunderstorms.

2. Warming trend in temperatures through Tuesday.

3. Temperatures will see a cooling trend starting mid-week ahead of a disturbance moving into the area next weekend.

4. Locally breezy conditions expected across the Mojave Desert from the middle of next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Another clear day with temperatures reaching their peak values this afternoon. High-Res Short-range ensemble maintain a good probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees (40%-60%)
across the San Joaquin Valley. Yet, short term analysis does show a disturbance pushing onto the West Coast on Wednesday as the start of a cool-down will begin on Wednesday. Until than, ridging over the West Coast will maintain light winds across area with mountain convection across the Sierra Nevada. PoE of possible lightning is around 10%-20% this afternoon and centered around Mount Whitney and spreading toward Fresno County (Mountains). Therefore, with only a slight chance, convection should be minimal and confined to the Sierra Crest.

Longer range upper-air ensemble analysis is leaning toward the introduction of a trough pattern near the weekend. While widespread precipitation is very unlikely across most of the San Joaquin Valley, mountain locations have a better chance. Current PoE of measurable precipitation sits at 30%-40% from Merced County toward Yosemite NP on Friday night and 30%-50% on Saturday with near 50% for the higher elevations near Yosemite.
Therefore, while confidence on mountain precipitation is growing, valley rain still has high uncertainty. Confidence is higher in having decreasing temperatures and increasing winds later this week and into the weekend. Longer range temperatures PoE analysis is showing a 50% chance of temperatures reaching 75 degrees on Saturday. With PoE of seeing even lower temperatures, confidence is high on a good cool-down by next weekend. At the same time, PoE for wind gusts will increase as percentages rise to 40%-60% during the Friday and Saturday time frame. At the moment, Sunday will see little change in temperatures and winds before a transition back to warming by next Monday.

AVIATION
12Z: VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior through the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.