Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

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Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:22PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:13 PM EDT (23:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 654 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191938
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
338 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week as
the area remains between subtropical high pressure offshore and
weak troughing inland. A front will approach the area Tuesday
before crossing Wednesday, bringing much needed relief from the
heat for the second half of the week.

Near term tonight
As of 300 pm Friday... The latest sfc analysis continues to show
high pressure offshore extending over the SE us with the
piedmont trough inland. Convection is beginning to develop along
the northern section of our forecast area which hi-res models
are supporting. The atmosphere is quite unstable, however shear
is weak so storms will be the pulse type storms. Storms will
rapidly diminish this evening due to the lack of heating and
should remain rain-free through the night. Expect another warm
and muggy overnight with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Short term Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... No change to the weather pattern as high
pressure offshore continues to extend over the SE us and inland
trough, while strong ridging aloft. The main story for Saturday
will be the dangerous heat and humidity. Low level thickness
values averaging AOB 1440 meters, 850 mb temps around 20c, and
winds aloft becoming wsw support temperatures reaching into mid
to upper 90s inland, while along the coast in the upper 80s to
low 90s. An excessive heat warning will be issued for all the
counties, except for carteret, coastal onslow, outer banks dare
and hyde which they will be in a heat advisory... Heat indices
will be 105 to 112 degrees.

Isolated to widely scattered showers thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the sea breeze as the atmosphere remains unstable, but
with little shear (less than 15 knots).

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 325 pm Friday... Very hot and humid conditions continue
through the weekend. Relief comes by the middle of next week as
a cold front reaches the area.

Saturday night into Sunday... Strong upper ridging prevails
through the weekend. At the surface, subtropical high pressure
well offshore slides further south, bringing more of a westward
component to the low level flow as weak troughing persists
inland. While the west-southwesterly low level flow will
inhibit the progression of the sea breeze and suppress afternoon
convection below normal summertime levels, it will also bring
low level thickness values corresponding to highs in the mid to
upper 90s across the area. Realized highs will depend largely on
cirrus streaming overhead, but several locations reaching 100
(near record highs) will be possible. These warm temps combined
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will bring heat index
values to around 110 during the afternoon hours away from the
beaches. May need a second day of excessive heat warning for
interior locations for Saturday, with heat advisories likely
along the immediate coast. Saturday night will also be warm,
upper 70s inland to lower 80s along the southern coast and obx.

Monday through Wednesday... Heights aloft begin to fall later in
the day Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and troughing
begins to develop across the eastern us. While the subtropical
high remains in control Monday, a cold front associated with
low pressure developing off the new england coast will approach
Tuesday. Deep moisture convergence ahead of this front looks
ample enough to justify the continuation of likely pops Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Wednesday is uncertain as the front could
stall inland with a wave developing along it during the day,
ushering the front through as the wave slides northward over the
mid-atlantic coast later Wednesday. Realized rainfall totals
will depend on the timing and progression of these features, but
some locations could receive 1-2+ inches or rainfall Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Temps will remain above normal Monday and will likely need a
heat advisory for the area due to the cold front slowing down in
its movement to the coast. Temps become more seasonable, or
possibly below normal, Tuesday and Wednesday... Depending on the
progression of the front.

Thursday and Friday... The remains lower confidence than normal
for the far extended range due to uncertainty with stalled front
along the coast for the end of the workweek. Could see scattered
showers and thunderstorms both days, best chances for eastern
portions of eastern nc. Temps will range at or just below
normal for late july, upper 80s to near 90 inland, mid 80s along
the coast.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 140 pm fri...VFR conditions will prevail through the taf
period. Only a slight chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Low pops expected
overall, so only vcts vcsh mentioned in tafs. Any shra or tsra
will result in brief sub-vfr conditions. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt
this afternoon, diminishing overnight.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm Friday...VFR conditions prevail into early next
week with gusty wsw to SW winds and the potential for brief
flight restrictions in passing showers and thunderstorms mainly
during the days. A cold front approaching the area Tuesday will
bring increasingly unsettled weather into the middle of the
week. Increasing confidence in sub-vfr conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday due to reduced ceilings vsbys in showers and
thunderstorms associated with the frontal passage.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Latest buoy obs show SW winds 10-20 kt
with gusty winds up to 25 kts over the central waters and seas
are 3-5 ft. SCA remains in effect for the central waters as
gusty winds of 25 knots continues and nwps model keeps a small
area of 6 ft seas through this evening. High pressure offshore
continues to dominate and the wind gradient tightens again this
afternoon and early evening to SW 15-20 knots. SW winds will
diminish gradually to 10- 15 knots by Saturday morning, then
increase in the afternoon evening to SW 15-20 knots. Seas will
be 3-5 ft and gradually subside 3-4 ft Saturday with 5ft seas
developing late Saturday afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 335 pm Friday... The gradient will relax a bit over the
weekend as moderate wsw flow prevails, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Early next week, an approaching cold front will bring increasing
southwesterly flow, with 15 to 25 kt winds expected to bring
seas to 5 to 7 ft Monday, likely necessitating small craft
advisories. Improving wind and sea conditions could arrive
Tuesday as the front moves over the area, but model timing and
feature differences make the forecast more uncertain by late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The front is forecast to move just
off the nc coast by Wednesday morning, resulting in
northwesterly to northerly winds across the waters, 5-15 kt
with seas mostly 2-3 ft during the day Wednesday.

Climate
Near record high temps will be possible this weekend.

Record high temps for 7 20 (Saturday)
location temp year
new bern 100 1977 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 92 2002 (khse asos)
greenville 102 1977 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1986 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 103 1977 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 101 1977 (knca asos)
record high temps for 7 21 (Sunday)
location temp year
new bern 103 1952 (kewn asos)
cape hatteras 94 1977 (khse asos)
greenville 102 1977 (coop - not kpgv awos)
morehead city 98 1987 (coop - not kmrh asos)
kinston 101 2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
jacksonville 100 1987 (knca asos)

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Saturday for ncz195-196-
199-203>205.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 7 pm edt Saturday for
ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz152-
154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Dag cb
aviation... Dag ml
marine... Dag bm
climate... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi62 min SW 8.9 G 14 83°F 80°F1015.4 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 26 mi44 min SW 18 G 21 85°F 85°F1015 hPa80°F
44095 26 mi58 min 80°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi62 min SSW 16 G 22 81°F 86°F1014.6 hPa
44086 42 mi49 min 78°F3 ft

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi23 minSW 107.00 miFair82°F78°F88%1015 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6SW6SW5SW5SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW4SW6SW8SW6SW7SW8SW8SW9SW10SW11SW12SW10SW11SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:48 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:58 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.40.70.200.20.61.21.72.12.221.510.50.20.30.61.21.92.533.23

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:47 AM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:59 PM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.70.80.30.20.61.32.22.93.43.63.22.61.70.90.50.40.81.52.43.23.843.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.