Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon, NC
December 9, 2023 10:42 AM EST (15:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:03AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 3:30AM Moonset 2:24PM
AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1027 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 7 seconds after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 7 seconds after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 1027 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure continues to move offshore today. A strong cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc next week.
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure continues to move offshore today. A strong cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 091526 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1026 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure pushes offshore today out ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers.
High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC into the end of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Sat...The proverbial calm before the storm today as above average temps and fair weather are forecast across the CWA. Upper level pattern is denoted by ridging aloft pushing offshore as an upper level trough sweeps across the Plains. At the surface, ridge of high pressure has started pushing offshore while a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes SW'wards to Louisiana tracks east and gets into the Tennessee River Valley by tonight.
Winds are becoming S/SE'rly across the entire area as a response to the high pressure moving offshore. Weak coastal trough will also depart by this afternoon, though as it makes its closest point of approach to ENC over the next few hours a few isolated showers will be possible primarily along the OBX Hatteras south. As a result have put SChc/Chc PoP's across the OBX and coastal waters with areas west of this remaining dry today. The coast and OBX is also where the thickest cloud cover will be located today, with less cloud cover to the west. This cloud cover is forecast to gradually push offshore later this afternoon and evening resulting in partly cloudy skies across ENC by tonight. Highs have been dropped from the previous forecast for the OBS, to the mid 60s, and have been raised by a degree or so for mainland NC given the ongoing WAA and clearing skies today.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level trough continues to approach from the west beginning to get a more negative tilt as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, cold front continues to approach from the west as well getting to the Appalachians by daybreak. This will allow clouds to begin to invade in from the west late tonight as well as increase PoP chances as showers begin to overspread the FA as the evening progresses. For now latest trends continue to support SChc to Chc PoP's spreading from SW-NE late tonight, though if rain does fall amounts will be light. With the frontal boundary approaching S'rly winds will also begin to increase albeit slightly with sustained winds forecast to increase from 5 mph or less to 5-10 mph. Given the increasing winds and increasing cloud cover, tonight's lows remain much warmer than previous nights with low temps only getting into the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Sat...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold front to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night
2) Turning cold and dry next week
FORECAST DETAILS
The main focus in the long term period continues to be the strong cold front that is forecast to move through the length of the US East Coast Sunday/Sunday night. This front will move through the region as a potent shortwave lifts northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States.
Potent shortwave aloft will develop a surface wave within the approaching cold front Sunday morning, prompting additional frontogenesis within the already strong front as it approaches the area. Rainfall changes increase through the day Sunday as increasing low level moisture advection/convergence and positive vorticity advection and diffluence aloft strengthen.
The band of greatest pre-frontal moisture will remain east of the area until later in the afternoon, which could allow for just enough sunshine to filter into the area to bring 500 or so J of CAPE which, combined with ample shear, could bring the potential for some more organized convective elements protecting damaging wind gusts. Additionally, PWAT values surging to near 1.75 inches, which would be near or at a daily record, will bring the potential for heavy rainfall. While antecedent conditions have generally been dry for the last couple of months, some localized flooding issues for poor drainage areas are possible beginning later in the afternoon.
As we shift to Sunday night, the strongest core of the 50+ kt LLJ will move overhead, with continued gusty winds, especially near the coast with winds are expected to remain just below wind advisory criteria. Showers will be widespread by this point, though instability is expected to be very limited with the loss of the modest daytime heating and overturning of the atmosphere, keeping the severe threat low. Still, a few stronger convective elements bring the potential for some localized flooding, locally damaging wind gusts or potentially a brief waterspout moving onshore as a tornado through the early morning hours.
The front will cross the area before dawn Monday, but ample 850 mb post frontal moisture will keep the potential for showers in the forecast through much of the morning Monday. By midday, strong upper subsidence develops, and drying conditions emerge with strong surface CAA ongoing.
High pressure building in from the west keeps cool and dry conditions in place through the first half of the work week, with reinforcing high pressure arriving Wednesday, keeping cool and dry conditions in place into the weekend. The next system could arrive next weekend, but there is far to much variability in guidance to provide much in terms of details at this range.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday... Pred VFR conditions remain forecast through much of the period with increasing chances for some sub- VFR conditions by early Sunday morning with the approach of a strong cold front. The mix of mid and high level clouds that has been moving across the area overnight should begin to lift out of ENC by late this morning with mo clear skies then forecast across the entire CWA by this afternoon. Light and variable winds become S'rly at 5-10 kts today as well. As we get into tonight, ceilings begin to lower and clouds begin to thicken from west to east as a cold front approaches from the west.
Latest guidance suggests MVFR ceilings begin to overspread the western terminals (ISO/PGV) by Sunday morning with the eastern terminals and points east following shortly thereafter.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Gusty S to SW winds Sunday through Sunday evening, with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall by the evening, with some stronger storms possible. A strong cold front will cross early Monday morning, bringing an abrupt wind shift to NW, with continued rainfall bringing the potential for sub- VFR through sunrise Monday. High pressure builds in from the west later Monday through much of the coming week, spelling the return of prevailing VFR conditions.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 315 AM Saturday... Obs continue to show fair conditions across our waters this morning with widespread 5-15 kt S-SW'rly winds and 2-3 ft seas across the area. Winds and seas don't change much through today as high pressure remains in control of the weather for the most part. A weak coastal trough may bring some scattered showers to our coastal waters today but little in the way of impact is expected from this activity. As we get into tonight, conditions begin to deteriorate as a cold front approaches from the west. This will tighten the pressure gradient slightly allowing S'rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts across our coastal waters. In response to this, seas will also begin to build closer to 3-5 ft as well tonight. Further increases in winds and seas are forecast for Sunday as well.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A strong cold front will bring very dangerous marine conditions Sunday and Sunday night. 50+ kt LLJ will mix most efficiently to the surface over the warmer waters near the gulf stream, with gales beginning Sunday afternoon for the coastal waters mainly beyond 10 nm offshore near and south of Cape Hatteras. Then, Sunday evening, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will assist with mixing across the cooler waters, and frequent strong S to SW wind gusts (30-40 kt) are possible across all waters. A strong cold front will cross the waters early Monday morning, with winds abruptly shifting NW and remaining gusty. Seas steadily build through the day Sunday, peaking at a very dangerous 8-14+ ft in mainly very rough southerly windswell early Monday morning.
The gradient will gradually diminish through the day Monday, with much improved conditions through much of the coming week as high pressure persistently builds in from the west. Seas drop steadily through the day Monday as the southerly windswell dissipates, with 4-6 ft seas by Monday night.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ131-135>137-150-230-231.
Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ152- 154-156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1026 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure pushes offshore today out ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers.
High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC into the end of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Sat...The proverbial calm before the storm today as above average temps and fair weather are forecast across the CWA. Upper level pattern is denoted by ridging aloft pushing offshore as an upper level trough sweeps across the Plains. At the surface, ridge of high pressure has started pushing offshore while a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes SW'wards to Louisiana tracks east and gets into the Tennessee River Valley by tonight.
Winds are becoming S/SE'rly across the entire area as a response to the high pressure moving offshore. Weak coastal trough will also depart by this afternoon, though as it makes its closest point of approach to ENC over the next few hours a few isolated showers will be possible primarily along the OBX Hatteras south. As a result have put SChc/Chc PoP's across the OBX and coastal waters with areas west of this remaining dry today. The coast and OBX is also where the thickest cloud cover will be located today, with less cloud cover to the west. This cloud cover is forecast to gradually push offshore later this afternoon and evening resulting in partly cloudy skies across ENC by tonight. Highs have been dropped from the previous forecast for the OBS, to the mid 60s, and have been raised by a degree or so for mainland NC given the ongoing WAA and clearing skies today.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level trough continues to approach from the west beginning to get a more negative tilt as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, cold front continues to approach from the west as well getting to the Appalachians by daybreak. This will allow clouds to begin to invade in from the west late tonight as well as increase PoP chances as showers begin to overspread the FA as the evening progresses. For now latest trends continue to support SChc to Chc PoP's spreading from SW-NE late tonight, though if rain does fall amounts will be light. With the frontal boundary approaching S'rly winds will also begin to increase albeit slightly with sustained winds forecast to increase from 5 mph or less to 5-10 mph. Given the increasing winds and increasing cloud cover, tonight's lows remain much warmer than previous nights with low temps only getting into the upper 50s to low 60s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Sat...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold front to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night
2) Turning cold and dry next week
FORECAST DETAILS
The main focus in the long term period continues to be the strong cold front that is forecast to move through the length of the US East Coast Sunday/Sunday night. This front will move through the region as a potent shortwave lifts northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States.
Potent shortwave aloft will develop a surface wave within the approaching cold front Sunday morning, prompting additional frontogenesis within the already strong front as it approaches the area. Rainfall changes increase through the day Sunday as increasing low level moisture advection/convergence and positive vorticity advection and diffluence aloft strengthen.
The band of greatest pre-frontal moisture will remain east of the area until later in the afternoon, which could allow for just enough sunshine to filter into the area to bring 500 or so J of CAPE which, combined with ample shear, could bring the potential for some more organized convective elements protecting damaging wind gusts. Additionally, PWAT values surging to near 1.75 inches, which would be near or at a daily record, will bring the potential for heavy rainfall. While antecedent conditions have generally been dry for the last couple of months, some localized flooding issues for poor drainage areas are possible beginning later in the afternoon.
As we shift to Sunday night, the strongest core of the 50+ kt LLJ will move overhead, with continued gusty winds, especially near the coast with winds are expected to remain just below wind advisory criteria. Showers will be widespread by this point, though instability is expected to be very limited with the loss of the modest daytime heating and overturning of the atmosphere, keeping the severe threat low. Still, a few stronger convective elements bring the potential for some localized flooding, locally damaging wind gusts or potentially a brief waterspout moving onshore as a tornado through the early morning hours.
The front will cross the area before dawn Monday, but ample 850 mb post frontal moisture will keep the potential for showers in the forecast through much of the morning Monday. By midday, strong upper subsidence develops, and drying conditions emerge with strong surface CAA ongoing.
High pressure building in from the west keeps cool and dry conditions in place through the first half of the work week, with reinforcing high pressure arriving Wednesday, keeping cool and dry conditions in place into the weekend. The next system could arrive next weekend, but there is far to much variability in guidance to provide much in terms of details at this range.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Saturday... Pred VFR conditions remain forecast through much of the period with increasing chances for some sub- VFR conditions by early Sunday morning with the approach of a strong cold front. The mix of mid and high level clouds that has been moving across the area overnight should begin to lift out of ENC by late this morning with mo clear skies then forecast across the entire CWA by this afternoon. Light and variable winds become S'rly at 5-10 kts today as well. As we get into tonight, ceilings begin to lower and clouds begin to thicken from west to east as a cold front approaches from the west.
Latest guidance suggests MVFR ceilings begin to overspread the western terminals (ISO/PGV) by Sunday morning with the eastern terminals and points east following shortly thereafter.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Gusty S to SW winds Sunday through Sunday evening, with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall by the evening, with some stronger storms possible. A strong cold front will cross early Monday morning, bringing an abrupt wind shift to NW, with continued rainfall bringing the potential for sub- VFR through sunrise Monday. High pressure builds in from the west later Monday through much of the coming week, spelling the return of prevailing VFR conditions.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 315 AM Saturday... Obs continue to show fair conditions across our waters this morning with widespread 5-15 kt S-SW'rly winds and 2-3 ft seas across the area. Winds and seas don't change much through today as high pressure remains in control of the weather for the most part. A weak coastal trough may bring some scattered showers to our coastal waters today but little in the way of impact is expected from this activity. As we get into tonight, conditions begin to deteriorate as a cold front approaches from the west. This will tighten the pressure gradient slightly allowing S'rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts across our coastal waters. In response to this, seas will also begin to build closer to 3-5 ft as well tonight. Further increases in winds and seas are forecast for Sunday as well.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A strong cold front will bring very dangerous marine conditions Sunday and Sunday night. 50+ kt LLJ will mix most efficiently to the surface over the warmer waters near the gulf stream, with gales beginning Sunday afternoon for the coastal waters mainly beyond 10 nm offshore near and south of Cape Hatteras. Then, Sunday evening, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will assist with mixing across the cooler waters, and frequent strong S to SW wind gusts (30-40 kt) are possible across all waters. A strong cold front will cross the waters early Monday morning, with winds abruptly shifting NW and remaining gusty. Seas steadily build through the day Sunday, peaking at a very dangerous 8-14+ ft in mainly very rough southerly windswell early Monday morning.
The gradient will gradually diminish through the day Monday, with much improved conditions through much of the coming week as high pressure persistently builds in from the west. Seas drop steadily through the day Monday as the southerly windswell dissipates, with 4-6 ft seas by Monday night.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ131-135>137-150-230-231.
Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ152- 154-156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41120 | 14 mi | 72 min | 57°F | 3 ft | ||||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 17 mi | 54 min | SSE 1.9G | 30.31 | ||||
| 41025 - Diamond Shoals | 26 mi | 32 min | W 1.9G | 70°F | 72°F | 30.29 | 53°F | |
| 44095 | 26 mi | 46 min | 52°F | 2 ft | ||||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 28 mi | 54 min | S 6G | 30.32 | ||||
| 44086 | 42 mi | 46 min | 56°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHSE BILLY MITCHELL,NC | 13 sm | 51 min | calm | 7 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 30.30 |
Wind History from HSE
(wind in knots)Avon
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 04:22 AM EST 2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:42 AM EST 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST 2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 04:22 AM EST 2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:42 AM EST 0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST 2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avon, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 2.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| 0 |
Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 04:06 AM EST 3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM EST 0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST 3.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST 0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 04:06 AM EST 3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM EST 0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST 3.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST 0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 3.6 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.6 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Morehead City, NC,
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