Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:28PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:36 PM EDT (18:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1251 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
This afternoon..W winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171702
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
102 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Cool high pressure will build in through early this weekend. An
unsettled pattern is expected late in the weekend into early
next week as several systems impact the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1 pm Thursday... No changes needed for the early afternoon
update as skies remain clear except for some transient jet-level
cirrus impacting inland areas. Temperature-wise, highs will be mainly
in the mid 60s with northerly breezes making it feel even
cooler.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
As of 215 am thu... High pressure will continue to build over
the area tonight. Excellent radiational cooling conditions
develop with mostly clear skies and light winds inland. Lows
will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s inland, and upper 40s to
low 50s along the beaches. Very patchy frost may be possible at
sheltered inland locations early Fri morning.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 345 am thurs... High pressure will continue to build in
through the early weekend bringing a cooler and drier weather.

An unsettled pattern is expected late in the weekend into early
next week as several systems impact the area.

Friday through Saturday... Strong high pressure will build in
from the west through Friday, while the mid upper trough axis
pushes offshore... As drier and a much cooler airmass continues
to filter in. The mid upper ridge will build and crest over the
area Saturday as the sfc high begins to slide offshore...

allowing for a S SE flow. Friday's temperatures is expected to
range btw 60-65 degree, while overnight lows around 40 inland
to low to mid 50s along the coast and we could even see some
upper 30s in coolest inland locations. Saturday's high will
gradually increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday night through Tuesday... The mid upper ridge will
gradually move north Saturday night as the sfc high slides
offshore completely. A tropical sub-tropical disturbance
currently over the bay of campeche (70% chance of developing
within the next 48 hrs as per nhc) will combine with a lingering
shortwave skirting across the gulf states. This system and it's
associated tropical moisture is expected to lift and move
across the southeast and the fa Sunday into Monday. The latest
models are becoming in better agreement in the timing, but the
gfs continues to the fastest. The area can expect rain to start
as early late Saturday night Sunday as the area of low pressure
lifts across the area Monday. Meanwhile, a longwave mid level
trough and attendant strong cold front digs into the central
conus Monday with another surge of gulf moisture lifting into
the area Monday night ahead of the cold front which is currently
progged to push across the area late Tuesday. Temps expected to
be several degrees above normal ahead of the cold front.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through 18z Friday ...

as of 1 pm Thursday...VFR conditions should continue through
this TAF cycle. Gusty W wnw winds should begin to subside early
in the day on Friday, only minimal cirrus clouds are expected
through the period.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 345 am thurs... High pressure will continue to build across
the region through Saturday withVFR conditions to dominate. An
area of low pressure will lift toward the area late in the
weekend with shower chances increasing late Saturday night
through Monday which could bring periods of sub-vfr conditions.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 1 pm Thursday... Seas have subsided a bit as expected, but
a few W wnw gusts to 25 knots continue over the coastal waters.

Even with an additional lull in the wind expected this
afternoon, will continue SCA for tonight as a secondary surge of
20-25 knots is still expected. Some of the short-term models are
not quite as strong with the winds tonight, but will make no
changes at this time. Seas could build back to AOA 6 ft as the
winds increase tonight.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 345 am thurs... High pressure will continue to build
Friday, then slide offshore late Saturday. NW winds will 10-20
knots Friday, then becoming light and variable Saturday. As the
high slides offshore late Saturday Sunday, winds will become
s to SE 10-20 knots through Monday as seas build to SCA levels
Sunday night Monday and continues into Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 640 am thu... Extended cf advisory through late this
afternoon for minor soundside flooding along the outer banks
(duck to ocracoke). Had some reports last evening, and given
that water levels remain 1-1.5 ft above normal in the sounds and
gusty W NW winds will continue... Expect the threat to continue
as well. Inundation of 1-2 ft is possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
ncz203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for amz131-135-150-
152-154-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk bm
aviation... Ctc cqd bm
marine... Ctc cqd bm
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi55 min WNW 17 G 25 60°F 67°F1008.4 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 26 mi37 min WNW 19 G 25 61°F 74°F1007.7 hPa (-0.9)48°F
44095 26 mi51 min 72°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi55 min WNW 14 G 20 60°F 67°F1007.9 hPa
44086 42 mi42 min 71°F5 ft

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi46 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair63°F44°F50%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE76NE6NE3NE4NE4NE4E4E5E5E5SE8SE7SE9SE8SE9SE11E10
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2 days agoSW9SW8SW6SW8SW5SW4W5SW4W4W4NW3N333CalmNE3NE4E3Calm4E7NE75N7

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.610.40.10.10.411.82.533.232.51.810.40.10.10.511.622.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:23 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.921.20.70.71.11.92.83.84.44.64.43.72.91.91.20.80.91.322.83.53.83.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.