Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 7:19 AM EST (12:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 9:56PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 634 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 291145 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will ridge in from the north today and tomorrow, as a coastal trough develops late tomorrow. An area of low pressure will strengthen and move up the East Coast Saturday, with colder high pressure building in behind it. Moderating conditions are expected early next week, as high pressure strengthens to the south.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 635 AM Wed . High pressure will be centered over northern New England today, but continue to ridge south over the area. Despite continued N winds, low level heights are slightly higher today than yesterday, which should allow for a modest bump in temps. Have highs reaching the mid to upper 50s over southern NC, and upper 40s to low 50s to the north and east. Skies should remain mostly sunny until late in the day when clouds spill into the region from the west associated with an area of low pressure which will move well to the south of NC.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/. As of 635 AM Wed . Not much change tonight, with high pressure still ridging in from the north. As the low pressure system passes to the south, off the Florida coast, skies will become mostly cloudy across the southern half of the area, while further north, it should remain mostly clear. Low temps will vary depending on where the cloud line sets up, with temps remaining in the upper 30s to low 40s where it's mostly cloudy, and where skies are clear temps will drop into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 3 AM Wed . A fast moving area of low pressure will move south of the region Thursday producing isolated light coastal showers. A stronger area of low pressure is expected to impact the region Friday into this weekend. High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into early next week.

Thursday and Thursday Night . A strong mid-level shortwave will dive south across the Carolinas Thursday, inducing cyclogenesis well south of the area off the SE coast. High res guidance has backed off on shower chances along the coast Thu, while the global models keep the chance for light precip. Will keep a sc mention along the immediate coast, though expect most areas to remain dry. Low level thickness values keep temps near to a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows dropping into the 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the beaches. Friday through Sunday . Strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is forecast to lift along the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with exact track and strength of the low, but models seem to be coming into better agreement. The GFS is still slightly closer to the coast than the EC or NAM but a bit stronger. There is still the potential for locally heavy rain, strong winds along the coast and minor soundside water level rises along the Outer Banks this weekend. Forecast confidence is increasing that widespread moderate to locally heavy rain will develop across the area Fri night into early Sat morning, with QPF amts 0.5-1" with some higher amounts possible. Continued to increase pops Fri afternoon into early Sat morning, but will cap at likely for now. Will keep chance pops in for Saturday given the uncertainty but may it end up being mostly dry, esp during the afternoon, with only widely scattered showers depending on track and timing of the low and associated "dry slot". A period of strong WNW winds is possible on the backside of the low along the coast late Saturday night into the first part of Sunday. This could lead to minor water level rises on the sound side of the Outer Banks and low water across the inland rivers. Though right now it looks like the duration of the strongest winds may be less than 12hrs which would likely limit the water level impacts. The low should strengthen and race away from the area late Sat and Sunday, with high pressure and upper ridge building in. Mild temps expected this weekend with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s inland to mid 40s along the beaches.

Monday through Wednesday . High pressure will build over the area from the SW Sunday night and Monday. The high will shift off the coast Monday night ahead of next approaching frontal system. Mon looks like a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and above normal temps. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Temps will continue to gradually warm Tue and Wed, above climo with highs in the 60s. Slight chances of showers return Tue and Wed, though guidance is now trending a bit drier for Tue.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through Thursday Morning/ . As of 635 AM Wed . VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with skies mostly sunny today, and then becoming mostly cloudy tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 3 AM Wed . Pred VFR conditions expected through Thu night. Better chances for widespread sub-VFR conditions late Friday into Saturday morning as an area of low pressure is forecast to lift along the NC coast and produce widespread rain. Sat afternoon into Sunday is expected to be pred VFR with gusty west winds.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 645 AM Wed . Decent boating conditions expected today, with winds out of the N/NE around 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 ft. Winds will strengthen tonight as the pressure gradient tightens, becoming N at 15-20 kts, with seas increasing to 3-5 ft. There could be a few gusts 25 kts or greater, but conditions will predominately stay below Small Craft criteria into tomorrow morning.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 3 AM Wed . Strong winds and elevated seas are likely this weekend.

Moderate N/NE flow 15-20 kt is expected Thu into Thu night with seas 3-5 ft. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. The N/NE winds diminish a bit Fri 10-15 kt, and will continue seas 3-5 ft with persistent NE fetch.

Forecast confidence is below normal this weekend, mainly Fri evening into Sat morning. A strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is forecast to lift near the NC coast. The low will race away from the NC coast late Sat into Sun. Still some uncertainty with exact track and strength of the low, the GFS continues to move it right along the NC coast while the ECMWF is a bit weaker and keeps it just offshore. Exact wind speeds and seas will be very dependent on exact track and strength of the sfc low. Will continue to indicate strong SCA level westerly winds (20-30 kt) beginning Saturday night through mid day Sunday. There will be potential for Gale force winds, with best chances on the backside of the low Saturday night into Sunday morning. Though the GFS and NAM both show a brief period of gale force winds Fri night into Sat morning. Will show SCA seas developing Fri night, but could build to 6 ft as early as Fri evening. With offshore flow seas should peak at 5-10 ft Sat night into Sunday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . JME/CQD AVIATION . CQD/SGK MARINE . CQD/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi50 min NNW 8.9 G 11
41025 - Diamond Shoals 26 mi30 min N 9.7 G 14 47°F 70°F4 ft1018 hPa33°F
44095 26 mi34 min 48°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi56 min NW 4.1 G 6 39°F 48°F1018.2 hPa
44086 42 mi25 min 49°F4 ft

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi29 minVar 410.00 miFair44°F36°F73%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7565N8
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464NE5Calm3NE3CalmNE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN34
1 day agoNW4CalmW4SW7W7W75W5W4SW3SW3W3W3W3NW6NW6NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:39 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:57 AM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.70.40.30.61.11.72.32.82.92.72.31.60.90.40.10.10.40.91.522.32.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:44 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:02 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:28 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.40.70.20.10.411.82.63.13.33.12.61.80.90.300.10.61.32.12.73.13.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.