Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avon, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 7:52 PM EST (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 616 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of rain until early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds in the morning. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming n. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely, then a chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon CDP, NC
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location: 35.39, -75.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 122309 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 609 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will form and move just inland of the coast late Friday, bringing a cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly Sunday and Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 608 PM Thursday . High pressure will will continue to build over the region from the north tonight. Skies across most of the area are clear, and with winds decoupling early this evening, temperatures are falling rapidly, and in some cases near the coast have fallen to or below forecast minimums. Thus expect lows in the mid to upper 30s inland to around 40 coast to occur mainly before midnight, with temperatures then becoming steady or slowly rising late tonight. This will be a result of increasing clouds now seen in satellite over the Cape Fear region and vicinity of the Albemarle Sound which will overspread the region after midnight. The models are forecasting a trough of low pressure to develop just off the coast overnight, which could result in isolated showers vicinity of the Outer Banks after midnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 3 PM Thursday . Precipitable water surges toward 1.5 inches during the day on Friday as surface low approaches from the southwest over the inland Carolinas. Rain will be widespread and will continue with high likely to categorical PoPs with QPF totals on the order of one-half to three-quarters of an inch during the day tomorrow, with the heaviest amounts near the coast and especially the Outer Banks. Ribbon of higher CAPE values remains well offshore and will keep thunder out of forecast during the day until somewhat better instability arrives later Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will be considerably warmer than today, especially near the coast. Highs will range from the lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 130 PM Thu . Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue.

Friday Night through Saturday . Deep srly flow will be ongoing Friday night as low pressure riding up the coast approaches and crosses the area. Rain chances peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible Fri evening. Still some uncertainty on exact track of the low, but guidance appears to be converging on solution of low center tracking over the inner coastal plain/west of the US Hwy 17 corridor, bringing several hundred J/KG of sfc based CAPE into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Best chance of a stronger storm would be along the coast where best instability will reside. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough and continued swrly flow sfc and aloft, and have a likely pop through around noon, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops and progressive high pressure dominates.

Tuesday . Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night and Tue, and introduced 50-70% pops this period, focused on Tue as converging model solns focus timing of the next strong cold front moving through by later Tue.

Wednesday and Thursday . A return to dry albeit cooler weather pattern by Wed as long wave trough axis shifts to the eastern Seaboard with sfc high pres building into the region for midweek, with temps below normal.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Friday/ . As of 608 PM Thu . VFR conditions should continue through 6Z tonight, then clouds will advance into the region and lower as moisture surges into the area ahead of an approaching storm system. This is expected to result in a prolonged period of sub VFR conditions from late tonight through Friday night. Some of the guidance is indicating that IFR ceilings could develop 10-15Z late tonight/Fri morning in advance of the steadier rainfall. Confidence is low in this scenario, so will forecast MVFR ceilings developing around 9Z, then becoming IFR by early Fri afternoon as the steadier and heavier rainfall arrives over the area. Could see a period of LLWS develop Friday afternoon and evening as strong SW winds develop aloft.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 130 PM Thu . Sub-VFR conditions expected into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat through early week as high pres builds back in.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 608 PM Thursday . NNE/NE winds have trended down to 15-20 kt over the sounds and waters north of Oregon Inlet early this evening, but seas remain elevated along the coastal waters. Seas will remain 5-6 feet on the waters north of Oregon Inlet until after midnight. Elsewhere, winds are stronger in a tighter gradient over the southern and central waters 20-25 kt with frequent wind gusts to around 30 knots coupled with seas up to 6-7 feet which will persist on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet overnight and no changes will be made to SCA in those waters. Winds subside on all waters Friday, with more marginal seas for SCA, but will ramp up again ahead of a surface low moving just inland by tomorrow evening/night.

Long Term /Friday Night Through Tuesday/ . As of 130 PM Thu . Breezy to strong southwesterly winds develop as low pressure tracks along the coast Friday night, continuing into Saturday night. Hazardous seas of 6-10 ft persist through much of the weekend, before finally subsiding later Sunday as high pres begins to build into the area. More favorable boating conditions prevail early next week has high pressure dominates.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME/CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . JME/CQD/CB MARINE . JME/CTC/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 17 mi58 min NNE 20 G 23 49°F 52°F1032.8 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 26 mi32 min N 19 G 27 60°F 76°F1031 hPa55°F
44095 26 mi36 min 58°F7 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 28 mi58 min NNE 16 G 20 49°F 51°F1033.7 hPa
44086 42 mi27 min 54°F6 ft

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC14 mi61 minNNE 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast51°F43°F74%1033 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.41.122.83.43.63.42.81.91.10.4-0-0.10.30.81.522.32.21.81.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:23 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 PM EST     3.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-00.51.42.53.54.24.44.13.42.31.30.4-00.10.61.42.33.13.43.32.81.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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