Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Clipper system to bring a chance of scattered flurries Friday morning

- Not quite as cold on Saturday

A clipper system, currently moving through the NRN Rockies, will dive southeast across the Plains tonight, then swing east across the Mid-Atlantic States on Friday. Strong WAA will develop ahead of this feature tonight into Friday across the Carolinas. Given the fast movement of the system, there will be limited time for sufficient moisture advection ahead of it.
However, there may be just enough low-mid level moisture overlapped with near freezing surface temps to support a brief period of very light snow or flurries early Friday morning along and north of the HWY 264 corridor. Scattered flurries were added to the forecast in that area, but snow accumulations are not expected.

After the morning flurries, a warm front will attempt to lift north into ENC, but will probably stall about halfway through.
South of where the front reaches, highs should manage to warm into the 50s, while highs should hold in the 40s to the north.
It will be breezy south of the front as well, especially along the coast from Hatteras south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Friday's stalled front should get a kick north on Saturday in response to a strong shortwave approaching the region from the west. It won't last long, but this should put most, if not all, of ENC in the warm sector, with highs expected to top out in the 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 2 AM Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Strong cold front to move through Sunday with breezy conditions and a brief round of light precipitation

- Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning

Sunday and Sunday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has been to increase PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow, briefly, before ending late afternoon and evening.

Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid 40s inland to mid 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. CAA continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday. Should the latest trends hold, this could set the stage for cold weather headlines being needed for much of the area, including down to the coast.

Monday through Wednesday...Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast. High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week with highs in the 40s Tuesday and 50s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1230 AM Fri...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

No real changes to the forecast through Fri evening as high pressure overhead tonight has allowed for light and variable to calm winds across ENC. At the same time, high and mid clouds stream overhead in association with a weak clipper system approaching from the west. This will continue to bring VFR conditions across all of ENC through Fri morning. The dry airmass and sct clouds should limit any fog development tonight.
As the clipper makes its closest point of approach Fri morning there will be increasing mid level cloudcover, though ceilings will generally remain well above 7-9 kft. Greatest concentration of cloudcover will likely be from Hwy 264 north. With this in mind, a few flurries can't be ruled out around this area Fri.
Though minimal impact is forecast. VFR conditions then continue across all of ENC through Fri and into Fri night. High pressure pushes offshore by Fri evening allowing for light and variable winds, though low level moisture will increase slightly throughout the day Fri into Fri night. With mo clear skies we turn our attention to the potential for patchy fog. Current guidance suggests this threat has a less than 20% chance of occuring and would happen after 06Z Sat if it were to occur. So for now it is not mentioned in any of the TAFs but we will continue to monitor the situation and include it if necessary.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected through Sat with a low end chance at some sub-VFR conditions Sunday across ENC as a cold front moves across the area. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday, with pred VFR returning Monday.

MARINE
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

- Clipper system to bring a quick round of 20-25kt wind gusts Friday

- A more significant system moves through late Sunday into early Monday with 30-40kt wind gusts likely

The gradient continues to relax across the area at this time, which is allowing winds and seas to lay down. In light of this, the risk of hazardous conditions for small craft continues to decrease. By Friday morning, seas are expected to be around 2-3ft.

A fast-moving clipper system will move through the area Friday, with southwesterly winds quickly building to 10-20kt Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest winds are expected to be across the Pamlico Sound and the central and southern coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras where occasional gusts of 20-25kt will be possible. Some guidance suggests the potential for more frequent gusts to 25kt, but this appears to be more of a worst- case scenario. Because of this, we'll hold off on any marine headlines for this system. Even if there was a period of 25kt winds, it looks like it would be shorter lived. Modest southwest to west winds then continue on into Saturday.

For the coastal waters, seas of 3-4ft are expected south of Cape Hatteras late Friday into Saturday, with 2-3ft elsewhere.

Sunday through Tuesday...Another potent Arctic front is set to cross the area on Sunday with strong SCA to Gale Force winds likely behind the front Sunday and Sunday night. Conditions will improve on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure build back into the area.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.