Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cayucos, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...09/339 AM.

Today the synoptic pattern will shift, as the trough of low pressure exits the region making way for high pressure to build.
Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday (mid 70s to mid 80s common), and marine layer clouds will struggle to form, particularly for southern Santa Barbara County and Ventura County. Sundowner Winds are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight across southwestern Santa Barbara County, in addition to northwest winds across the I-5 Corridor. Wind Advisories will likely be issued for the aforementioned areas. This afternoon the strong northwest flow will also produce gusty but sub-advisory conditions along the beaches of the Central Coast.

By Wednesday morning, surface pressure gradients will become moderately offshore from the northeast across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties (gusts around 25-40 mph across the mountains), which will reduce marine layer clouds and lead to a noticeable spike in temperatures for northern areas. Temperatures will be warmest across San Luis Obispo County, where highs between 80-90 will be common at the coast, and around 100 degrees is expected at Paso Robles. Much weaker offshore flow is expected for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties on Wednesday, but this will still cause warming temperatures and a reduction in morning cloud coverage. There continues to be a 20 percent chance of a Heat Advisory being needed for some coast/valley areas, most likely the southern Salinas (Paso Robles), Santa Clarita, and the western San Fernando Valleys. Additionally, with any clouds that do form there will be a chance of dense fog due to the high pressure aloft. Thursday offshore flow (if any) will be weaker and daytime highs will cool by a few degrees across the coasts and valleys and remain similar for inland desert areas.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/227 PM.

Persistent high pressure and onshore flow will keep temperatures relatively consistent over the second half of the week into the weekend. Daytime high temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Marine layer clouds will recur each morning, clearing by afternoon. Higher pressure will keep the clouds focused over the beaches and coastal plains with limited inland extent. Mid- level monsoonal moisture and instability is forecast to approach the southeast boundary of the forecast area Friday and Saturday, bringing a small (5 percent), but nonzero chance of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel mountains.

AVIATION
09/1042Z.

At 0722Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1000 ft deep. The inversion top was at 3500 ft with a maximum temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 20-30% chance for VFR conditions to persist for KPRB, KVNY and KBUR. Timing of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for LIFR cigs along the Central Coast.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, there is a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs do not reach the TAF site. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight.

MARINE
09/339 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Wednesday. Localized gale force gusts will be possible over all of the outer waters this evening, with a 30% chance that a Gale Warning will be needed. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, with much weaker winds Thursday through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. Lighter winds are likely during the morning hours, then increasing again each afternoon. Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, with a SCA in effect through late tonight. Light winds are then expected Wednesday through Saturday.

BEACHES
09/340 AM.

A long period south swell will move through the waters Today through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore.
Periods will initially be 21 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 3 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a chance of more widespread surf of 4 to 7 feet with larger sets, in which case a high surf advisory will be needed.

Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the building surf, along with strong rip currents.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 8 AM PDT this morning through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).