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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 852 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from noon pst today through this evening...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 852 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 16z or 8 am pst, a 1025 mb surface high was located about 900 nm west of los angeles, while a 1014 mb thermal low was along the southern california coast.

FXUS66 KLOX 111827 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1027 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
11/914 AM.

Offshore flow will continue most of the week, with gusty north to northeast winds at times, especially Tuesday night through early Thursday. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday, with above normal temperatures during the days. Nights will be colder than normal, at least in wind-sheltered areas. A storm system moving into the eastern Pacific may bring rain to the region as early as very late this weekend, but more likely next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...11/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

Overall a very quiet week of weather expected in southwest California. Offshore flow continues to weaken today with only light northeast breezes this morning turning to light sea breezes this afternoon. There will be some passing high clouds through the day but plenty of sunshine today and the rest of the week. May get some marine layer clouds near the LA/Ventura coastal areas the next couple nights as well. Temperatures expected to cool across most areas today and Tuesday, though likely a little warmer in the Antelope Valley.

A weak trough over WA this morning will develop into closed upper low near Vegas Wednesday morning and this will provide some support for offshore winds.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper low will become more compact and drop southward into northwestern Arizona late Tue night/Wed morning, and a ridge will amplify across the eastern Pacific. The will cause an increasing gradient of the 500 mb height pattern across the region, with some increase in northerly winds aloft. Low level gradients will become more offshore again by Wed morning. Although the KLAX to KDAG gradients will generally only be between 3 and 4 mb offshore Wed morning, there will be a modest increase in upper support and some cold air advection Tue night. This should produce an uptick in northerly winds across SBA County and maybe through the I-5 Corridor Tue night. Then, as the low level flow turns more NE, there may be an increase in NE winds across the mtns/valleys of L.A./VTU Counties with winds possibly pushing into the VTU County coast, and to the Malibu Coast. Winds could get close to advisory level in some areas late Tue night/Wed, but at this time, it does not look as though it will be nearly as windy as it was on Sat.

Max temps may be up a couple of degrees west of the mtns Wed due to offshore flow and some height rises, but low level cold advection may bring some cooling to the mtns and the Antelope Valley. Tue night will be a chilly night in wind sheltered locations across the interior, with some freezes possible in the normally colder valley locations of SLO and SBA Counties.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...11/453 AM.

The upper ridge will move into CA Thu, causing heights to rise.
Offshore gradients may a bit sharper Thu morning, but upper support will wane, so expect gusty NE winds across L.A./Ventura Counties to be below advisory levels. Expect some warming in most areas Thu, with max temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Max temps in some of the warmer locations in the valleys and in interior sections of the coastal plain may approach 80 degrees Thu.

A large upper low will develop in the eastern Pacific Thu night and Fri, then drop slowly southward while making very little eastward progress thru Sat. As it drops southward, the ridge over the area will linger, and heights may even rise a bit Fri.
Gradients will remain offshore thru Sat, and while there may be some gusty NE winds at times, do not expect any advisory level wind Thu night thru Sat. Some high clouds may move into the area late in the week and over the weekend, but with the offshore flow, do not expect any low clouds to form. Max temps will likely remain several degrees above normal Fri and Sat. With dry conditions continuing, it should be rather cold each night Wed night thru Fri night in wind-sheltered locations across the interior.

The upper low will begin to push toward the West Coast Sun. Clouds should increase across the region, and there is a slight chance of rain, especially across northern areas late in the day. However, with slow moving systems that are cutoff from the main flow, there is a chance that the low may linger off the coast longer than expected. Therefore, there will likely be a better chance of any rain beginning some time early next week.

AVIATION
11/1825Z.

At 1801Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion of 2900 feet with a maximum temperatures of 18 C.
High confidence 06Z, then moderate confidence for coastal sites thereafter. Timing of cigs developing may be off by +/- 3 hours.
There is a 30% chance of no cigs for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB, and a 10% chance of a few hours of BKN015 cigs for KSBA and KOXR from 09Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence, as there is a 30% chance of no cigs developing, and timing may be off by +/- 3 hours. High confidence any east wind component will be less than 5 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
11/853 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, northwest winds will continue to increase Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this afternoon. There is a 30-50 percent chance that winds will drop below SCA levels late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will drop below SCA levels between late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, then remaining below SCA levels through the remainder of the week.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level northwest to north winds each evening across the western and central Santa Barbara Channel through Wednesday evening. Farther to the south between Rincon Point and Pacific Palisades, there is 30-40 percent chance of SCA level northeast winds Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Morro Beach
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Mon -- 01:49 AM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:12 AM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:31 PM PST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:42 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM PST     3.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California, Tide feet

Avila
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Mon -- 01:15 AM PST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM PST     -3.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:42 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM PST     0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Avila, California, Tide feet

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