Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cayucos, CA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:22 PM PDT (20:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 920 Am Pdt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 pm pdt this evening...
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 15 kt. Combined seas 8 to 9 ft dominant period 7 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds after midnight. Patchy fog with visibility 1 nm or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft in the evening, becoming 1 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less early, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 4 ft and S 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 920 Am Pdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 1022 mb surface high was located 800 nm west of point conception, while a 1006 mb thermal low was over southwest arizona. The high will push closer to the coast tonight, then retreat back offshore Thursday through the weekend. Gale force winds and dangerous seas are likely from the central coast to san nicolas island tonight, with choppy seas elsewhere.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cayucos, CA
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location: 35.43, -120.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 211804
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1104 am pdt Wed aug 21 2019
updated aviation and beaches section

Synopsis 21 807 am.

High temperatures will peak this afternoon. A trough of low
pressure will bring a cooling trend through the end of the week.

There will be areas of night through morning low clouds and fog
for most coastal areas. Then high pressure will build back in this
weekend with some warming, mainly inland.

Short term (tdy-fri) 21 927 am.

Pretty sparse marine layer coverage this morning, mainly confined
to northern sb county and a few patches over the coastal waters.

This is due to building high pressure aloft and offshore trends in
the gradients, both north south and west east. Profilers and
soundings all showing several degrees of warming in the lower
levels and this will translate to a similar trend at the surface
in most areas but especially inland. Also of interest will be
southern sb county where another round of sundowners is expected
to generate additional downslope warming and drying in that area
later this afternoon and evening. Local high resolution models
show the winds spreading farther east to cover most of the santa
ynez range and adjacent foothills, though still strongest across
the western portion.

***from previous discussion***
synoptically, a 594 dm high was located over the eastern pacific
extending eastward over much of southern california. An upper
level trough located across the west coast from northern
california into the pac NW will dig farther south into socal
Thursday Friday bringing a cooling trend across most areas. Today
will be the warmest over the next few days with highs 2-6 degrees
warmer than yesterday. Triple digit heat is expected across the
antelope valley, salinas river valley and should hit 100 degrees
at woodland hills. Otherwise, most valleys will reach the mid to
upper 90s as the coastal areas remain mild over the next few days.

Night through morning low clouds are expected to be more
widespread across the central coast with only patchy low clouds
developing across the la county coast and possibly reaching the
oxnard plain. This stratus will continue Thu night into Friday.

Possibly more widespread S of point conception. Higher confidence
for clear skies across the sba south coast due to the sundowner
winds this evening into Thu morning.

For Thursday, expect high temps to lower 2-4 degrees, with an
additional 2-6 degrees of cooling on Friday. The one exception
will be across the salinas river valley including paso robles where
highs will go from the upper 90s on Thursday to the lower to mid
80s on Friday as cooler southerly flow moves into the area.

The pattern becomes a bit more complex after Friday as the national
hurricane center is expecting a high chance of a tropical depression
forming just west of southern mexico over the pacific. The gfs
shows this disturbance moving north parallel to the baja peninsula
but loses a lot of its punch by Sunday.

Long term (sat-tue) 21 309 am.

Overall, a few degrees of warming is expected this weekend into
early next week as high pressure builds in over the region. Moderate
onshore flow is expected to remain in place so will likely deal
with a relatively shallow but widespread marine layer across most
coastal areas during the night and morning hours. High
temperatures will rise a few degrees with most valleys in the mid
to upper 90s. The antelope valley will experience triple digit
heat, but not much higher than normal for this time of year.

The GFS continues to show a tropical cyclone spinning up over the
pacific just west of southern mexico on Friday and tracking north
parallel to baja. It quickly weakens as it reaches southern baja
Saturday. It's possible there will be some mid to high level
remnant clouds moving over across southern california by Sunday,
but remaining too dry at lower levels to pose much of a risk for
convection.

Aviation 21 1803z.

At 17z, the marine layer was 700 feet deep at klax. The top of
the inversion was around 3300 feet with a temp of 27c.

Moderate confidence in similar timing and lifr flight cats at
ksmx tonight compared to last night. Ifr CIGS possible elsewhere
tonight into Thursday, 60 percent chance at klgb klax ksmo, 40
percent chance at koxr, 30 percent chance at kcma ksbp, 10 percent
chance at ksba. High confidence inVFR prevailing elsewhere.

Klax... Moderate confidence inVFR through 08z. 60 percent chance
of ifr cats beginning 10-14z Thursday, clearing 16-19z. Southeast
winds likely 10-17z, with a 20 percent chance of reaching 8 kt at
times. Stronger and more persistent southeast winds likely
Thursday night into Friday.

Kbur... High confidenceVFR with typical winds through Thursday.

Marine 21 931 am.

High confidence in gale force winds and dangerous short period
dominant sea conditions forming this afternoon and continuing
tonight, over the outer waters from the central coast to san
nicolas island. Peak winds between 35 and 40 kt are likely this
evening. These winds will lower to small craft advisory (sca) for
Thursday and Thursday night. Moderate confidence for relatively
light winds well below SCA Friday through at least the weekend.

High confidence in small craft advisory (sca) winds nearshore
along the central coast, and the western santa barbara channel
this afternoon and tonight. All of these winds will generate
choppy or steep seas over all coastal waters this afternoon
through Thursday morning.

Morning southeast winds will be on the rise as well. The waters
from the east santa barbara channel and southward will see 5 to 10
kt Thursday morning. Local gusts to 15 kt through the san pedro
channel are possible. These winds will expand Friday morning to
all nearshore waters (including the central coast). Local gusts to
15 to 20 kt are possible around the channel islands, and through
the san pedro channel.

There is a possibility for a large southeast swell to impact the
waters Sunday through Tuesday from soon to be named tropical storm
ivo. A swell from this direction would cause strong surges around
harbors, including avalon and long beach. Stay tuned as details
develop.

Beaches 21 1057 am.

A tropical disturbance currently about 600 miles south of the
southern tip of baja california, will soon become tropical storm
ivo. Fairly certain this will generate a southeasterly swell for
california Sunday through Tuesday. The largest swell should occur
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a period around 14
seconds. While the peak swell heights will most likely fall
between 3 and 5 feet, there is a 10 percent chance for a range of
5 and 7 feet.

Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach 4 to 6 feet over south
facing beaches, but could approach the 7 foot high surf advisory
levels for los angeles county during the peak.

There is a small risk for impactful coastal flooding. The highest
tides will be in the early evening, and should reach a modest 5.5
to 6.0 feet. If the peak swell ends up 3 to 5 feet, flooding
impacts would be minor and mainly in the form of beach erosion. If
the swell height ends up closer to 7 feet, more impactful flooding
would be possible for the vulnerable areas like pebbly beach in
avalon and the long beach peninsula if unprotected.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3 am pdt
Thursday for zones 39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening
for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3
am pdt Thursday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3 am pdt
Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.

Public... Mw kaplan
aviation... Kittell
marine... Kittell
beaches... Kittell
synopsis... B
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 16 mi23 min 59°F5 ft
CPXC1 19 mi23 min N 2.9 G 5.1 88°F 989.7 hPa56°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 19 mi53 min E 1.9 G 5.1 88°F 59°F1011.8 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 34 mi33 min 60°F 58°F6 ft1012.2 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA18 mi27 minNW 2010.00 miFair and Breezy81°F55°F41%1010.8 hPa
Paso Robles Municipal Airport, CA22 mi30 minNNW 1010.00 miFair88°F48°F26%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9NW19NW13NW14NW13NW11NW10NW8NW7NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3W7W8NW14NW15NW17
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NW16NW20
1 day agoW8NW10NW15NW14NW14NW13NW10NW8N8NW9NW8NW4W4NW7NW7NW5NW3NW3NW5CalmNW33NW4W7
2 days ago6--SW7NW9NW12NW13NW10NW8NW9NW7NW9NW7NW7W5CalmSW3SW4S3CalmCalmCalm44W8

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:47 AM PDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM PDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:57 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:38 PM PDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.63.73.53.12.62.11.71.61.82.22.83.43.94.24.343.63.12.52.2222.3

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, California
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Port San Luis
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:54 AM PDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM PDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:40 PM PDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM PDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.83.93.73.32.82.21.81.71.82.32.93.64.24.64.64.43.93.22.62.21.922.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.