Cornelius, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornelius, NC

June 22, 2024 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 8:53 PM   Moonset 5:17 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 221541 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
A hot and humid subtropical airmass returns to the area this weekend, lingering through much of next week. Isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms return to the mountains today, with scattered activity possible area-wide Sunday into Monday as a weak cold front tracks across the area. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday into early Wednesday before a stronger cold front brings better coverage of shower and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1135 AM Saturday: The forecast appears to be in good shape, so no changes were made going into the afternoon.

Otherwise...an upper anticyclone remains in the lower MS Valley along with weak sfc high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast. Moisture advection will continue today as a sfc low drifts slowly inland, but with the incumbent air being rather dry through a deep layer, diurnal mixing will slow the moistening trend from mid-morning through early afternoon. Subsidence is still evident aloft, although inversion is a little more likely to be overcome owing to the slightly warmer sfc T/Td, with SE sfc flow still being the only real forcing. The models that correctly depicted minimal coverage yesterday over the mountains are doing so again today. Still think a mention of isolated showers and more isolated thunderstorms is reasonable in that area, with overall PoP pretty similar to previous fcst. A shower or storm also is possible from the southern Lakelands to lower Catawba Valley region where dewpoints will remain highest, and although model support has increased for precip in this area, still think coverage will remain isolated.

Max temps will inch a degree or two warmer compared to Friday, ending up at 91-93 for most of the Piedmont and around 90 in the major mountain valleys. Dewpoints should mix out into the upper 60s and this should be enough to keep heat index below 100. Some models hint that some patchy clouds and a few late showers could develop after sunset in the foothills in the convergent area between the inland high and subtropical/maritime airmass. Otherwise, tonight again will be mostly clear aside from the possibility of fog/stratus developing in the more humid air. Temps will be warmer also owing to the moisture, 3-5 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Conditions Continue into Monday, Especially East of the Mountains.

2) Heat Indices may Flirt with Heat Advisory Criteria in the Upper Savannah River Valley on Monday Afternoon.

3) A Weak Cold Front Increases Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Slightly Sunday into Monday.

As of 130 AM EDT Saturday: No major changes to the short term forecast period this update. A large upper anticyclone will remain parked over the Southern Plains/Desert Southwest while an upper trough digs south across the East Coast through the short term. At the sfc, a weak cold front will track across the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night before pushing across the western Carolinas Monday into Monday night. This front should allow for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development Sunday into Monday. Capped PoPs to chance (50% or less) for now as global models are still not in agreement regarding the exact timing/coverage of convection. Drier conditions are expected Monday night behind the front as sfc high pressure builds into the region. Despite the cold front, hot and humid conditions will linger through the period. Highs east of the mountains should reach into the low to mid 90s with heat indices climbing into the upper 90s/lower 100s each afternoon, especially across the Upper Savannah River Valley and along I-77. Heat indices should generally remain below Heat Advisory Criteria but may flirt with criteria on Monday in the the Upper Savannah River Valley.
Highs will end up around 7-9 degrees above climo each day. Lows Sunday night will be around 8-10 degrees above climo, becoming 4-7 degrees above climo Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Conditions May Now Linger Through Thursday, Especially East of the Mountains.

2) Heat Indices may Flirt with Heat Advisory Criteria again in the Upper Savannah River Valley on Wednesday Afternoon.

3) A Stronger Cold Front Brings Better Shower and Thunderstorm Coverage Late Wednesday into Thursday.

As of 200 AM EDT Saturday: Upper riding briefly builds into the region Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday leading to drier weather and continued hot and humid conditions. Upper troughing will approach out of the west throughout Wednesday while a cold front tracks across the Midwest. Highs will climb into the mid 90s each afternoon east of the mountains, remaining around 7-9 degrees above climo. Heat indices will be a bit lower east of the mountains on Tuesday afternoon thanks to slightly lower dew points behind a departing front. However, heat indices may still climb into the upper 90s/lower 100s in the Upper Savannah River Valley Tuesday afternoon. Dew points are expected to recover on Wednesday, allowing heat indices to rebound back into the upper 90s/lower 100s east of the mountains during the afternoon hours. Thus, the Upper Savannah River Valley may once again flirt with Heat Advisory criteria on Wednesday.

Upper troughing will push across the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday, dragging a stronger cold front across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia on Thursday. This will allow shower and thunderstorm chances to increase again the second half of Wednesday and into Thursday. Capped PoPs to chance (30%-50%)
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday evening due to global model guidance inconsistencies regarding both the timing and coverage of convection. Cloud cover and convection associated with the front should lead to slightly cooler temps on Thursday but will keep lows Wednesday night around 7-9 degrees above climo. Highs Thursday afternoon should only climb into the upper 80s/lower 90s east of the mountains but dew points will remain elevated. So, heat indices should climb back into the upper 90s/lower 100s in the Upper Savannah River Valley and near I-77 on Thursday. Guidance diverges regarding the both the upper and low-level pattern Thursday night into Friday but convection may linger through the end of the period.
Thus, maintained slight chance PoPs to low-end chance PoPs (25% or less) Thursday night into Friday. Highs should be fairly similar to Thursday's but should generally be a degree or two cooler. Humidity should lower a bit on Friday thanks to slightly lower dew points.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Light southerly flow in the PBL has brought subtropical moisture back to the lower Piedmont, with a stratus deck near 010 making a run at KCLT/KGSP/KGMU at issuance time. Restrictions not out of the question at these sites but if so likely brief, so only mentioned in TEMPO. KGSP/KGMU should start off with a very light NNE wind, and with weak gradient all obs are likely to show some variability. By late morning most winds should come around to SE, then eventually S. Low VFR cu will develop in the clear areas by midday; where the stratus develop these could simply scatter up to VFR. FEW-SCT VFR cu may linger into tonight. A stray SHRA or even TSRA will be possible this aftn and evening in the mountains but with such weak forcing this was not likely enough to include at KAVL.

Outlook: Expect a return to more typical scattered convection across the region Sunday and Monday. Slight drying may follow for Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi39 minS 1G2.9 85°F




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