Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornelius, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 545 PM...

Key Messages

1) Dry Weather Continues

2) Well Above Normal Temperatures Return

3) Gusty S/SW Winds Expected Each Afternoon/Early Evening

Upper ridging will gradually build northward into the region while the southwestern periphery of a sfc ridge lingers over the Southeast through the near term. This pattern will suppress convective chances, allowing dry conditions to continue.

No significant changes to fcst thinking at this update. Minor adjustments to T/Td trends thru evening on account of obs running a little more moist than previously fcst. Breezy S/SW winds have developed this afternoon but will gradually taper off early this evening. However, wind speeds will remain elevated overnight, lows will end up ~10-15 degrees above normal. Partial cloud cover develops tonight as southerly moisture flux continues, but delayed onset of clouds in line with guidance depicting the usual late arrival/development of stratus in southerly flow.

Building heights combined with increasing S/SW'ly flow will allow highs to end up 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday afternoon. Breezy SW winds will return by late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon, lingering through the end of the period.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 123 PM EDT Friday: No major changes to the short term forecast. Southerly return flow will remain in place on the western fringe of a surface high centered off the Atlantic coast on Sunday, fueling a gradual increase in moisture and according weak WAA regime...while ridging is maintained aloft. Little in the way of any rain chances Sunday thanks to generally stable conditions leftover from the high's influence. Temps will climb into the mid-80s - some 10-12 degrees above normal - on Sunday afternoon...before falling into the lower 60s Sunday night.

On Monday, the area will remain dry most of the day, as an anemic frontal circulation approaches from the west. As its supporting upper trough pivots northeastward up and over the deteriorating ridge, the front will become disconnected from any notable synoptic forcing, and will encounter only modest moisture in the Carolinas...so models aren't enthused, and neither is this forecaster; it looks like a low-impact system all things considered.
The front is unlikely to completely cross the area through the end of Monday, and may even stall out entirely over the area through Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 207 PM EDT Friday: By Tuesday, most guidance is in agreement that the front will be laid out more or less east-to-west across our southern zones. Some instability may manage to develop on the south side of the front Tuesday afternoon, so token thunder chances remain in the forecast...but severe risk looks minimal at this time.

The remainder of the week will see the slow deterioration of the front, allowing for diurnal showers and thunder each afternoon.
By Friday, deterministic guidance variously depicts either a closed surface low or open wave drifting across the lower Midwest and allowing what remains of the front to reactivate and lift north.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will remain SSW/SW through Sat aftn/evening with low-end gusts developing each afternoon before tapering off each evening. Dry conditions will continue with periodic rounds of cirrus expected. Some of the guidance has been backing off on the low stratus potential east of the mountains, with the exception of the I-77 corridor. If low stratus does manage to develop, it will be brief. Thus, only have a TEMPO at KCLT for SCT MVFR from 10Z-13Z.

Outlook: Dry and VFR continues through the weekend. Rain and associated restrictions return early next week and may linger through much of the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.