Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:09PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:38AMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 181941 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 241 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold Canadian high pressure will spread below normal temperatures into our region as moisture tracks east along the Gulf coast on Thursday. Expect some wintry weather over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia Thursday, especially in the North Carolina mountains. Drier air moves into our area for Friday and Saturday. Another low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 235 PM: An active weather pattern will continue in the near term and beyond. A deepening cyclone pressing northeast from the Great Lakes into the Canadian Maritimes will help to driving a cold front draped across the Ohio River Valley southward through our area tonight, pushing further southward towards the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday evening. Fairly deep moisture and some limited instability will likely support periods of moderate to heavy rain across the region this evening into tonight with around an inch of rain for southern areas and a quarter to half of an inch to the north. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of the cold front, especially south of I-85 where moderate forcing and marginal and mostly elevated instability could support a few stronger storms with gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning strikes the main threats. With the saturated soils in place, isolated flooding may become a concern for southern portions of the forecast area, especially if training of heavier rain bands occur. The passage of the cold front will make way for an impressive 1045+ mb high pressure system located over the Upper Midwest to begin to build into the region Wednesday, providing much colder and somewhat drier air on breezy northerly winds. Persistent upper level flow from west to southwest flow atop the region may support lingering cloud cover and isolated shower activity into the day Wednesday for southwestern areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 215 PM EST Tuesday: The forecast has trended a touch colder for the period of interest Thursday into Thursday night. The setup looks good for cool and dry air to spill into the region behind the frontal boundary settling just south of the area Wednesday night. The operational models and the associated SREF/GEFS plumes now all bring accumulating snow potential down to the I-85 corridor, from GSP to CLT. There are several wrinkles in the forecast, however. The NAM profiles exhibit a bit more of a warm nose later Thursday as profiles wet bulb down in the returning upglide moisture over the frontal zone. The warm nose appears transient on the NAM profiles, and is less prominent for all but the extreme southern tier on the other models and blends. Thus, the thinking is that although brief mixed ptypes are possible at times, the forecast will be predominantly a rain/snow line issue. The deepest forcing and moisture should cross the region Thursday afternoon as upper divergence ramps up and a positively-tilted shortwave dives southeast from the upper Midwest into the central/southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, surface low pressure along the frontal boundary will deepen along the coastal waters and a window of decent frontogenesis will set up over the central and eastern Carolinas into Thursday evening. The back edge of this frontogenetic axis could flirt with our I-77 Piedmont Counties - something to watch out for as it would mean better precipitation rates.

All told, the best 2 to 3 inch snow accumulations for this relatively short duration event should affect the higher ridges of the NC mountains, with lighter accumulations east of the mountains and mainly northwest of I-85, but with a dusting southeast of the Interstate. Some wintry weather potential will be featured for most zones in the HWO this afternoon, but no Watches will be posted at present.

Drying should occur rapidly behind the passing wave Thursday night, unless any lingering bands of precipitation west of the coastal low persist east of I-77. Dry ridging will set up over the southeast on Friday with continued cool temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 225 PM EST Tuesday: Upper heights will build over the southeast through the weekend as the next upstream system deepens over the Plains. Temperatures will gradually rebound a bit closer to climatology by the end of the weekend. The upstream low will phase back into the northern stream west of the Appalachians, but bring renewed upper support and moisture back to the area Sunday night through Monday. A southerly low-level jet will transit the Piedmont Monday afternoon to pose the greatest risk of thunderstorms. However, instability looks rather weak and limited for Monday at present. Dry slotting and fropa should arrive Monday night, with brief drying on Tuesday between systems.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Low confidence in 18Z TAFs mainly as it relates to cigs/vsbys after 21Z. SHRA should pick up from the SW thru 00Z with isolated thunder mainly south of I-85 and too low for mention at TAF sites at this time. Cigs/vsbys will likely lower 1-2 categories in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. Vsbys may improve as moderate rain moves in after 00Z with gradual improvement expected after 06Z behind a cold front pushing through from the north. Low end gusts are likely across the mountains and possible elsewhere behind the front and through the end of the period.

Outlook: Drier conditions with a brief return to VFR is likely late Wed except for possible far SW areas with lingering SHRA. Additional precipitation (wintry wx for at least the mountains to I-40 corridor) and restrictions may develop early Thursday before a cold front brings a return to VFR Thu night through the weekend.

Confidence Table .

19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z KCLT High 81% Med 68% High 85% High 96% KGSP High 88% Med 73% Med 76% High 89% KAVL High 82% Med 72% Med 70% High 81% KHKY Med 77% Med 67% High 86% High 100% KGMU Med 77% High 81% High 84% High 80% KAND Med 69% High 80% High 93% High 82%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . 65 SHORT TERM . HG LONG TERM . HG AVIATION . 65


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi40 min Calm G 2.9 57°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi50 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 1019.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi75 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F51°F72%1020.7 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi55 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast57°F48°F73%1019.6 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi78 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast61°F51°F70%1019.9 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi76 minVar 310.00 miOvercast61°F50°F67%1019.5 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi75 minSW 310.00 miOvercast56°F50°F82%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJQF

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmS5S5
1 day agoCalmCalm----Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E4NE5NE5E5CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5W5CalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.