Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornelius, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain chances gradually return over the weekend, with highest chances on Monday, as a cold front moves through the area. Brief drying expected Tuesday, before another front brings a quick shot of rain Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Rain chances gradually return over the weekend, with highest chances on Monday, as a cold front moves through the area.
Brief drying expected Tuesday, before another front brings a quick shot of rain Wednesday.

A broad upper long-wave trough will persist across the central and eastern CONUS basically thru the period, with a series of shortwaves riding thru the trough, providing some rain chances to our area.
Cool, dry high pressure crosses the area today, but will quickly exit to our east and support some moisture return out of the SW by early Saturday. The latest NBM has backed off PoPs Saturday, as flow veers to nearly due westerly and keeps the better moisture to our south. From there, the NBM PoPs have trended a little higher for Sunday and especially Monday, as guidance comes into better agreement on a deep trough crossing the area and pushing a cold front in from the NW. The timing of the fropa still looks to be early Monday, which may keep the better instability to our east by peak daytime heating. QPF also looks to remain muted by possible upstream convection over the Deep South and a fairly fast frontal movement. The 12z/07 LREF prob of >0.25" of rain is generally around 30% or less for each system, including a clipper system that looks to swing thru Wednesday. Temps will generally be below normal thru the period, except warming to near or slightly above normal on Sunday ahead of the first front. The coldest night of the week looks to be Monday night, with patchy frost not out of the question for the sheltered mountain valleys.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. A cold front has dropped south across the area with cooler and drier air filtering in. The main concern will be the potential for patchy fog across portions of the Piedmont, including KCLT. Several locations, especially those that saw rain this afternoon, have already see visibilities drop from Gastonia to Salisbury. The extent and duration of fog remains uncertain as drier air works into the area, as noted upstream at KHKY and KMRN where dewpoint depressions are much larger. Patchy fog cannot be completely ruled out at KCLT, but confidence is too low to warrant mention at this time. Trends will be closely monitored overnight in the event an amendment is warranted. Otherwise, winds will remain light out of the north overnight into Friday morning before shifting to back out of the southwest during the afternoon hours. Mainly high clouds will stream overhead with an increase in cloud coverage late in the period.

Outlook: Cannot rule out restrictions Saturday with return of moisture. Another cold front impacts the region late this weekend into Monday bringing another round of rain and associated restrictions. Dry and VFR Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.