Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atascadero, CA

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...17/815 PM.

***UPDATE***

A weak low pressure system is moving southeast of the area this evening and overnight. Some light showers occurred earlier today over the LA mountains and foothills, and a slight chance of additional showers will linger over the mountains, mainly the eastern San Gabriels but also over the northern mountain slopes.
Little or no accumulation is expected. A second and stronger low is currently centered over northern Utah, and is forecast to track south across Utah into Arizona tonight through Friday.

There are continued gusty onshore winds in the Antelope Valley and foothills, but below Advisory level. Gusts are currently between 30 to 40 mph, except up to 45 mph at Lake Palmdale and are expected to diminish by late this evening through late tonight. A deep moist layer will maintain mostly cloudy skies across much of the area through Friday morning, with partial clearing possible in the afternoon. A warming trend will begin Friday with highs rising anywhere from 3 to 12 degrees across the area. However, these temperatures will still be below normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Continued gradual warming is expected over the weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

The second upper low is just moving into far northeast Nevada this afternoon. This is quite a bit farther east than the models had advertised earlier this week. Due to this eastward adjustment rain chances have dropped to under 10% for Friday in most areas except the far eastern San Gabriels near Wrightwood where there could be just enough moisture and instability to generate a brief shower in the afternoon. Otherwise, likely still a lot of clouds in the morning before clearing in the afternoon with temperatures still below normal.

Weak high pressure will develop behind that for the weekend along with much weaker onshore flow leading to a 10-15 degree increase in high temperatures for the valleys and interior areas and 3-5 degrees of warming near the coast. This will bring highs to near normal for the valleys and interior but still slightly below normal for the coast. Uncertain about marine layer coverage but a lower marine inversion may take at least until Sunday to develop when weak troughing returns along the west coast.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...17/302 AM.

Good agreement with the deterministic and ensemble mdls for the extended fcst. A series of trofs will move through the PACNW and will bring weak, but dry, cyclonic flow over the Srn CA. Onshore flow will increase as well and the night through morning low cloud pattern will return to the coasts and probably the lower vlys. Skies otherwise will be mostly clear. Moderate to strong onshore flow in the afternoon will bring gusty winds to the mtns and Antelope vly. Temperatures will not change too much each day with a few degrees of warming Sun and Mon followed by a few degrees of cooling Tue/Wed. Monday will be the warmest day of the next 7 with plenty of 70s across the csts and vlys except for 60s at the beaches.

AVIATION
17/2346Z.

At 2251Z at KLAX, there was a 6500 ft deep moist layer.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. VFR cigs >030-070 with periods of MVFR possible for all terminals except KPMD and KWJF (low chance). There is a 20-30% chance for night through morning MVFR cigs north of Point Conception.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF. Best chances for MVFR cigs BKN/OVC015-025 from 08Z to 18Z Fri. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF. There could be periods of MVFR cigs BKN/OVC015-025 thru 18Z Fri.

MARINE
17/702 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level NW wind gusts for the waters around Point Conception down to the Northern Channel Islands Fri afternoon/eve. High confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels on Saturday. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in PZZ673/676 on Sun and Mon.
Slightly higher chances for NW portions of PZZ670 during same timeframe. More widespread chances of SCA winds and seas increasing to near SCA levels on Tue and Wed.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NW wind gusts for the waters south of Port San Luis Fri afternoon. Similar chances for the evening hours for the waters near San Simeon.
Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels for the remainder of the weekend. Potential for widespread chances for SCA level winds Tue and especially on Wed. Seas will be elevated during this timeframe, although there is only a 15% chance of reaching SCA criteria.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance of SCA level W wind gusts for western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel on Friday during the afternoon/eve hours. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels thru Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.