Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salvo, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 930 PM Mon...Once again no significant changes to the forecast tonight. SW'rly flow aloft will continue to pull in moisture from the Gulf, which will allow for persistent high clouds over ENC. Expect a SCT/BKN deck above 20,000 ft for the most part. Light SW'rly flow will keep the area mixed which wont allow temps to lower much, as low temps are only forecast to get into the low to mid 60s across ENC.

Prev Disc...SFC low continues its Eward trek across Great Lakes region toward New England coast, pivoting offshore high pressure center further S. FA remains "warm sectored" overnight with persistent S-SWerly flow of 5-10 mph leading to very warm overnight lows in the 60s area-wide.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 3 PM Mon...A cold front associated with low pressure over Quebec will approach eastern NC late Tue. Sswrly flow ahead of the front will advect in low level moisture and combined with surface heating will result in MLCAPE values approaching 1,000 J/KG, with sfc CAPES a bit higher. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing inland and north in the afternoon. It appears that effective shear on order of 25-30 kt will lead to a low end severe weather threat (Marginal- Level 1 of 5) with strong to locally damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. Best chances for storms will be the northern zones, mainly north of Hwy 264, where 30-50% pops in the forecast late in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 AM Monday...The front will move across the area Tue night with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected and a continued low end severe weather threat for wind/hail. The front will move back to the north of the area as a warm front Thu into Thu night with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat maintaining the threat for showers and storms into the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 640 PM Mon...Not much change in the forecast as primarily VFR conditions are expected through at least early Tue afternoon. A mix of high and mid clouds will likely persist with a light SW'rly wind tonight as ceilings remain well above 10 kft. We should remain mixed enough to preclude any fog threat, but won't completely rule out some ground fog (generally 10% or less chance of formation) primarily across our SW'rn zones (EWN/OAJ TAF sites). Either way no operational impacts are expected if this ground fog did develop. As we get into Tue afternoon there will be a small threat for some sct thunderstorms esp for KPGV/ISO later in the afternoon Tue, though not enough confidence this far out in time for a VCTS mention. Will continue to monitor trends and VCTS may need to be added at these sites in coming updates.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk returns beginning late Tue and persists for the remainder of the week

A wavy frontal boundary will meander over the region through much of the work week. In vicinity of this front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR conditions at times. The timing of the front, and when the greatest impact to aviation will be, is less certain but still appears to be Tuesday night through Wednesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Sswrly flow cont with speeds of 10-20 kt. These winds will cont through Tue. Afternoon heating gradient will kick up the winds in the sounds to near SCA levels but not long enough duration tomorrow afternoon to warrant a SCA headline at this time due to the brief nature. Later Tue afternoon showers and storms will erupt with best chances over Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds as well as the northern OBX.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Wavy frontal boundary this week with changeable winds, and increased chances for showers and thunderstorms

As a front meanders north and south across the waters expect shifting winds through the period. Tue, SW winds 15-20 kt become NE around 15 kt late Wed and Thu, then veer SE and S Fri. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through the period with some 5 footers possible along the outer waters. The front will also result in an increase in the risk of thunderstorms, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.