Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salvo, NC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salvo, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 050206 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1006 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday with mainly dry conditions, then a more unsettled pattern for mid week next week.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 10 PM Sun... Biggest challenge so far this evening has been the small area of lower clouds trapped underneath an inversion along our western counties. This cloud cover is out ahead of the surface high to the north and is working its way southwards underneath a canopy of high clouds which are associated with a departing low well off the coast. Overall went with persistence this evening and left the forecast alone for the most part outside of some minor tweaks to the dewpoints and temperatures given the general expectation that dry air will eventually win out and scour out the low clouds. Any high clouds will also eventually thin and move out of ENC this evening from N to S as the aforementioned low pulls further away. Transitory high pressure will eventually move overhead late tonight which will allow for calm to light winds area wide. Should the expected cloud fcst hold, all areas including mainly coastal counties should get well down into the low 50s, perhaps even a few upper 40s in normally cool spots in this regime.

Of note, record lows this time of year are mostly in the 40s, so records will be difficult to reach, but should they fall a few more degrees than fcst, some spots may reach record territory. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 3 PM Sun...
Transitory high will be overhead early, then weaken and move off the coast late in the day. As a result, synoptic wind flow will be weak and dominated by local sea/sound/river breezes, with light/var wind early becoming onshore by mid afternoon. Air mass will be very dry with TD's well into the 50s, so only a sct/bkn cu field develops in the afternoon. Highs will climb back to around climo, generally around 80 interior with 70s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 445 AM Sun...A deep upper level cut-off low remains quasi-stationary over New England through mid week bringing cyclonic flow across the region with several impulses moving through the flow aloft.

High slides offshore Monday night with strengthening southerly return flow as a cold front approaches the area Tuesday. Could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm Tue afternoon with decent shear in place and modest instability developing through peak heating. Highs Tue expected in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.

Vort maximum rotating around the upper low could provide enough forcing to bring isolated showers Wed with the front lingering near the area. The upper low begins to eject eastward for the latter half of the week but additional shortwave troughs will pivot across the area through early Saturday. Guidance differs with available moisture and position of the front along or off the coast as well as potential low pressure areas tracking along the front which is bringing a low confidence in precip chances.
Temps will be below normal for the second half of the work week.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 715 PM Sun... VFR skies are in place across the CWA as of this update with a mix of mid and high level clouds over the area. That being said, there is a scattered deck of clouds across the western zones (PGV/ISO) between 4-5 kft but these clouds should lIft to above 10 kft within the next hour or two.
With high pressure building in from the north tonight winds will be come light and skies will begin to clear from N to S later this evening keeping conditions VFR. Dry air on incoming high pres should limit any fg potential, though would not be surprised to see some pockets of patchy BR develop as temps cool to near saturation under skc skies and calm conditions. As we get into Monday, winds remain rather light through much of the day with winds potentially becoming briefly gusty out of the south across our coastal TAF sites OAJ/EWN in the afternoon behind the seabreeze, but ceilings and vis should remain VFR into Monday evening as high pressure remains in control.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Fri/
As of 5 AM Sun
Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term. High pressure builds over rtes Monday, then a cold front is expected to approach the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible which may bring reduced cigs/vsbys at times. Isolated showers may linger into Wed and Thu with brief period of sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Nerly moderate flow cont with winds of 15-25 kts for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Gradient already relaxing for northern sounds and inland rivers, so have expired the SCA in those areas. High pressure building in tonight will lead to cont diminishing of winds, though seas will remain elevated until morning for most marine zones, and lingering until afternoon for the ctrl waters.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Fri/...
As of 515 AM Sun...High pressure builds in Monday with N to NE winds around 10-15 kt in the morning, then diminish to around 10 kt or less while veering to the E to SE through the afternoon.
Seas continue to diminish with most waters below 6 ft early Monday morning but seas around 6 ft may linger across the outer portions of the central waters through Monday afternoon.

Winds become SW and increase Monday night and Tuesday with the high shifting offshore and a front approaching from the NW.
Winds around 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt develop Tuesday and Tuesday night with the strongest winds over the central and southern coastal waters. Seas will be around 3-5 ft and could see some 6 ft seas across over the central and southern coastal waters Tuesday night.

The front will push into the waters early Wednesday with winds becoming N to NW around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-4 ft. The front lingers across the waters into Thursday with variable winds less than 15 kt and seas around 2-3 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 3 PM Sun...The combination of high astronomical tides (King Tides) and stronger northeast winds are expected to produce minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, oceanside and soundside (over the southern Pamlico Sound, Bogue Sound and adj tidal creeks) peaking through this evening when the strongest winds and highest high tides are forecast to occur.
High tides occur between 7-9 PM. Rough surf and localized ocean overwash will also be possible, particularly on the oceanside Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras. Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the potential for inundation 1-2 ft agl, locally up to 3 ft.

CLIMATE
Weather conditions tonight will be supportive of well below normal temperatures for all of Eastern North Carolina. Below is a look at record lows for select locations.

Record Low Temps for 6/5 (Monday morning)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 51/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 47/1988 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 45/1997 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 52/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 45/1988 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ094- 194>196-199-203>205.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

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Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina

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