Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salvo, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 3:28 AM EDT (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:41PMMoonset 6:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1010 Pm Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salvo, NC
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location: 35.46, -75.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180210
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1010 pm edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore with a weak trough of low pressure to the
west will continue through early next week. A front will approach
and stall near the area by the middle of next week.

Near term overnight
As of 1010 pm wed... The isolated storms from this evening have
dissipated as expected. Rest of the night mainly dry, but very
warm and muggy. There may be some coastal showers or storms that
scrape downeast carteret and the obx zones during the pre dawn
hours, as air mass will remain quite unstable over the coastal
waters overnight.

Prev discussion... As of 7 pm wed... Some widely sct to iso
convection may still creep into the coastal plain counties
before loss of diurnal heating, so have retained a 20-30 pop for
the next hour or two here. Otherwise, a quiet but extremely
warm and muggy night expected.

Prev discussion... As of 245 pm Wednesday... The latest meso-
analysis is showing sfc high pressure extending over enc from
the western atlantic and an inland trough, while a shortwave
trough is approaching nc from the west. Latest radar returns are
showing convection beginning to develop just to the north of
our area this afternoon with additional convection to develop as
the atmosphere is quite unstable across the area. Models show
most of the convection will rapidly diminish this evening with
the lack of daytime heating. Another warm night with lows in the
mid upper 70s inland to around 80 degrees along the coast.

Short term Thursday
As of 245 am Wednesday... An approaching shortwave trough will
approach eastern nc Thursday, while the remnants of TC barry
moves well north of the area. With unstable conditions to
continue across the area (cape values 3000-4500 j kg, LI -6 to
-8) increasing moisture, and better cyclonic flow should
resultina better chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Plus, the another story will be
the hot and humid conditions for Thursday. Expect highs in the
mid 90s with heat indices around 105 or slightly higher.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 230 pm Wednesday... The long term period will be
characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the
northern CONUS with the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge
through the end of the week, even with a shortwave associated
with the remnants of barry pushing offshore at the beginning of
the period. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over
the gulf of alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern
across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a
deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern
nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next
week with high pressure over the western atlantic and a trough
of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more
pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage across the region.

Thursday night through fri... The remnants of TC barry will pass
offshore well to the N Thu night with trailing lobe of
vorticity crossing the region keeping a chc of shra tsra going
most of the night. On Fri hgts begin to build back over the
region as rdg to the W expands e. Will have small pop for
typical diurnal shra tsra with better chc inland. Hot temps and
high humidity will cont Fri with apparent temps AOA 105 most
spots in the aftn
Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid with the
hottest temperatures likely for Saturday. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the upper
level trough begins to amplify to the W heights will fall some
Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs over
the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points
remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered
convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with
the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping
pops at 30% for the period.

Monday thru wed... A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week, although the timing
of this front has its typical spread this far out. Regardless,
the front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid- level shortwave. Due to timing differences will
cap pops at high chance for now. It should be noted that the
front is expected to stall with plenty of moisture to work with
and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level energy riding along the
boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible,
although the question of where the front stalls is still up in
the air. Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and
fall even farther by the middle of the week.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thu ...

as of 7 pm Wednesday... Mid to high clouds and light SW winds
expected to limit fog development again tonight, but there is a
chance for low stratus to develop, but confidence is low. Expect
a bit more widespread showers thunderstorms to develop for
tomorrow afternoon with cloud deck AOB 5kft at times and SW 5-10
knots.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 230 pm Wednesday... Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure
inland, with mainly scattered showers and storms Thu and fri,
and more isolated coverage Sat and sun. As ridge begins to break
down Mon may see an uptick in shra tsra. Patchy fog or stratus
will be possible early each morning, esp. In areas that receive
rain.

Marine
Short term through Thu ...

as of 245 pm Wednesday... The latest buoy observations are
showing S SW winds 10-15 knots and seas 1-2 ft. High pressure
will remain centered offshore with a trough of low pressure
across the piedmont. Gradients will tighten this afternoon and
remain tight through tomorrow as low pressure assoc with the
remnants of barry lift well north of the area. S to SW winds
10-20 kt through tomorrow with winds increasing Thursday
afternoon 20-25 knots. Seas are currently 1-2 ft, building to
3-5 ft tonight and becoming 4-6 ft late Thursday afternoon.

Therefore, a small craft advisory will be in effect starting
Thursday late afternoon, south of oregon inlet.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 230 pm wed... Tight pressure gradient will cont through
fri between inland surface trough and offshore high pres. This
will result in moderate SW flow 15-25 kt Thu night thru Friday
with some 6 ft seas expected outer central SRN wtrs where sca
will be up. The gradient relaxes somewhat Fri night thru Sunday
with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft. As front
approaches early next week SW winds increase again to 15 to 25
kt Mon with again some 6 foot seas outer wtrs.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Thursday for ncz029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 4 am edt Friday for
amz135.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 7 pm edt Friday for
amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl bm
short term... Bm
long term... Rf ms
aviation... Rf tl
marine... Rf bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44095 23 mi43 min 81°F3 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 33 mi39 min SW 21 G 25 85°F 85°F5 ft1016.7 hPa78°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 33 mi65 min SW 19 G 22 83°F 86°F1016.3 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 36 mi59 min SW 9.9 G 14 80°F 82°F1017 hPa
44086 41 mi34 min 78°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC32 mi38 minSW 118.00 miA Few Clouds81°F78°F91%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S7S6S55SW8S6S7S7S5S6SW6SW6SW5SW5SW6SW6SW5SW6
2 days agoSW4SW4SW3SW3SW3SW4SW6SW75S7SW6SW7SW5SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
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Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.50.40.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.50.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.810.400.10.40.91.51.92.121.71.20.60.20.10.40.91.62.333.33.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.