Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salvo, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 628 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salvo, NC
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location: 35.46, -75.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 151039
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
639 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will quickly pass through the area today. Low
pressure will move up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold
front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build
in late week and into next weekend.

Near term today
As of 640 am tue... Latest analysis shows 1022mb high pressure
centered over the mid-atlantic region, with weak cold front now
well off the coast. Front will continue to push offshore, while
high pressure extends over the area from the north today. Patchy
fog, locally dense, will persist through about sunrise, with
vsbys gradually improving thereafter. Skies will be mostly sunny
to start then will likely see some increase in mainly mid high
clouds late espcly SRN tier in advance of the next system. After
a cool start (inland temps currently in the upper 40s) temps
will warm nicely reaching 75 to 80 again most spots with
comfortable humidity.

Short term tonight
As of 225 am tue... High pressure will continue to shift off the
east coast as robust upper level system approaches from the
west and area of low pressure begins to develop across the se
us. Isentropic lift increases across the area tonight with
widespread precip developing late tonight and early wed. Main
change to previous forecast was to delay the onset of precip a
bit, based on guidance and given the dry air in place it will
take a little while to saturate. Best precip chances will be
towards sunrise Wed morning. Could see a non- diurnal temp curve
overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s
early, then rising a few degrees overnight into Wed morning as
warm front lifts through.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 330 am Tuesday... A low pressure area and attendant cold
front will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure
building in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and
drier airmass. The next system is expected to impact the area late
in the weekend or early next week.

Wednesday through Wednesday night... A robust upper level system
approaches from the west while a low pressure deepens as it
tracks across the carolina piedmont and offshore Wednesday.

Weak instability will develop in the warm sector with strong
shear and forcing present which could be sufficient for a few
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front, however poor
lapse rates and marginal effective shear should limit the severe
potential. We could see beneficial rainfall with models
showing widespread QPF amounts around 3 4 to 1 inch. Temps
remain seasonably mild with highs in the mid 70s. Strong caa
develops behind the cold front late Wednesday and especially
Wednesday night with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland to mid 50s coast.

Thursday through Monday... Strong high pressure builds in from
the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much
cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows
in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the
coast. High pressure becomes centered over the area Saturday,
then migrates offshore Sunday into Monday with the next frontal
system approaching the area. There remains some timing
differences among guidance but could see precip chances
increases late Sunday, but more likely Sunday night into Monday
as SW flow aloft brings increasing gulf moisture and a warm
front lifts across the area. Temps moderate to near normal over
the weekend and a few degrees above normal Monday.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am tue... Vsbys and CIGS improving early this morning,
though could still see ifr or lower conditions through about
12z. PredVFR conditions expected after areas of fog and stratus
lift later this morning, between 11-13z. The next system will
approach tonight, with increasing clouds and precip chances.

Sub-vfr conditions may develop late tonight and early wed
morning.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 4 am Tuesday... A strengthening low pressure area will lift
across the area into Wednesday with widespread sub-vfr conditions
in showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. A strong cold
front will push through Wednesday afternoon with predVFR
conditions returning and continuing through the end of the week as
strong high pressure builds in from the west. Strong south to
southwest winds expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to
around 25 kt at the terminals Wednesday with a period of gusty
northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front. High pressure
builds into the area Thursday through Saturday with predVFR
conditions expected.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 640 am tue... Latest obs show winds generally N NE 5-15 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Weak boundary will continue to push offshore
early this morning, as high pressure builds in to the north.

Areas of fog near the albemarle sound and northern waters should
dissipate in the next hour or two. N NE winds 5-15 kt this
morning becoming E NE this afternoon as high pressure continues
to shift eastward. The next system will approach the waters
tonight, with associated warm front lifting through late tonight
into Wed morning. E flow around 10 kt early, becoming SE s
10-20 kt by early Wed morning. Seas 2-3 ft today, building to
2-4 ft overnight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 4 am Tuesday... SCA conditions expected to return Wednesday
into Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the area. A
warm front will lift across the waters early Wednesday ahead of
the low with winds becoming south to southwest and increasing to
20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas building to 5-9 ft. The front
pushes through Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest
around 15-25 kt late Wednesday and Wednesday night, then gradually
diminishes through the day Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday
afternoon and gradually subside through the end of the work week
as high pressure settles over the area.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday
for amz131-135-156-158-230-231.

Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 am edt Friday
for amz150-152-154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44095 23 mi55 min 72°F2 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 33 mi41 min NNE 12 G 14 72°F 1018.3 hPa59°F
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 33 mi77 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 73°F1018.6 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 36 mi71 min NE 5.1 G 7 70°F 72°F1018.7 hPa (+0.5)
44086 41 mi46 min 71°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC32 mi80 minNE 310.00 miFair66°F62°F87%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S12SW11
G15
SW9SW11SW9SW9SW8SW6SW8SW5SW4W5SW4W4W4NW3N333CalmNE3NE4
1 day agoNW3NW3NW4Calm3SE7SE5S6S7S5S7S8S7S5CalmSE4S5NW3NW3SW7
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2 days ago----NW6435NW33S4SW4S5SW7S5S5S4S3CalmCalmW3W4W3CalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.60.50.40.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.70.70.60.50.50.50.50.50.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:48 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:01 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4000.411.82.52.932.82.21.50.80.200.20.61.31.92.42.52.41.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.