Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salvo, NC

NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/
As of 9 PM Fri...Svr risk has ended this evening, and thus the watch has been cancelled. Will still watch for a strong to marginally severe risk in the predawn hours Sat if activity can hold together moving out of western and central NC.

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As of 7 PM Fri
Focus cont to be on severe risk this evening across nrn portions of the FA, but also towards morning. First this evening, severe storms are moving into NC around the Roanoke Rapids area, and time of arrival tools indicate reaching the Albemarle counties of Tyrrell and Dare in the next hour or so. Svr thunderstorm watch cont for this threat. Late tonight, svr storms ongoing in KY are forecast by at least several CAM's, including the NSSL MPAS runs which have handled overnight MCS events in the past well, to race through NC and potentially hold together after 9z, affecting ENC in the predawn hours. If this activity holds together, a damaging wind threat may exist despite some sfc CIN, as ML CAPES between 1,500-2,000 J/KG and 35+ kt shear remain through the overnight hours. Have drawn in 20-30% pops to highlight this potential.

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As of 410 PM Friday
Hot and humid conditions unfolding across the Carolinas this afternoon as a potential mid-level ridge axis sits along the southeastern coastline.
Surface fronts are largely absent from the region but lee trough, typical of strong surface heating, continues to sharpen near our coast. Cirrus has steadily intruded the skies from upstream convection through the morning, but that has not stopped temps from climbing towards the low 90s.

Main focus tonight is a highly conditional but impactful severe weather threat. Current ridging is keeping a layer of moderate subsidence in place, evident by a dearth of cumulus across most of the coast. However, this ridge is forecast to flatten through tonight as strong shortwave currently over the central plains digs into the TN/OH River Valleys, ushering in less hostile upper support. At the surface, heat and humidity has built up considerable instability - up to 3500 to 4000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis - and effective shear is forecast to increase north of 40-50 kt through the evening as shortwave axis draws nearer.

The question is whether convection will be able to persist into eastern NC despite hostile conditions aloft. The expectation is a cluster of storms in southwestern Virginia will continue to grow upscale as it rides the ridge axis, which would eventually steer it across the northern half of the FA. Only a handful of CAMs depict this MCS holding together as it moves along and north of Highway 264, with the majority showing this activity falling apart and giving the area only weakening showers/storms or nothing at all. The HRRR, which earlier this morning showed the most aggressive convective solution, as steadily done a U-turn and now favors a dry solution keeping convection in Virginia. In highly unstable environments like this, models have had a tendency to not hold MCS activity together long enough, but recent trends must be acknowledged. The previous forecast has largely been maintained, showing 20-30% PoPs mainly along and north of 264, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these areas through 11 PM. If storms do hold together, the pre-storm environment favors damaging winds (potentially in excess of 70 mph given severe instability), as well as hail.
Tornado potential is lower compared to yesterday.

Ridge will flatten further overnight as upper trough steadily shifts further east. Multiple MCSs may be ongoing overnight, but questions over the ongoing mid-level cap lower confidence in thunderstorm potential. How convection evolves over the few hours will play a big role in what unfolds overnight. Pre-storm environment would remain favorable for an ongoing wind and hail risk, if MCSs that progress through the area manage to hold together.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 425 PM Fri...Cold front will be lagging the region tomorrow, still west of the Appalachians, while another lee trough is forecast to develop across the central portion of the state in persistent heat and humidity as highs again reach into the low 90s. Focus will again be the conditional threat for strong storms, firing along the inland trough and with upper support from the upper trough axis expected to cross the region during the afternoon. Again, this development is conditional on how the next 24 hours unfold as a successful MCS passage in the morning may stabilize the airmass too much to support afternoon activity. Additionally, subsidence and mid-level drying behind the MCS may also dampen storm potential. If nothing does unfold tonight, storms appear more likely tomorrow afternoon and early evening. CAMs favor areas south of Highway 264, and here the pre- storm environment is similar to today's - CAPEs 3000-3500 and effective shear in excess of 40-45 kt. Damaging winds, potentially up to 70 mph, and hail remain possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 0430 Friday...A series of weak cold fronts pushes through the area this weekend with a more significant system to impact the area late next week.

Weekend...The front is forecast to slowly sink S of the FA through Sunday before stalling over the region.

Next week...Quiet and relatively cool compared to the weekend early week with downsloping NWerly flow aloft between the departing low and shortwave ridging briefly amplifying over SECONUS. The next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas midweek upping cloudiness and rain chances again through the end of the week.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence TSRA risk over the next 24 hrs

Guidance hints at two chances for thunderstorms, with one this evening into the early overnight hours and the second near dawn tomorrow morning. Large uncertainty still exists within the models regarding TSRA occurrence, so have opted to keep a VFR TAF for all terminals with an added PROB30 group.

The focus through tomorrow morning will be TSRA well upstream across the TN and OH Valleys. Some guidance suggests this activity will survive the trek across the Appalachians and the piedmont of the Carolinas, eventually reaching ENC late tonight tonight. Should this scenario play out, the environment appears supportive of strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+ and tempo sub-VFR conditions. Stay tuned for updates in case confidence were to increase regarding the TSRA potential.

Outside of the TSRA potential, the risk of LLWS impacts after 06z tonight (associated with a modest southwesterly low-level jet) has decreased some. Thus, have removed LLWS mention from TAFs; however, some potential still remains. This will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Friday...Series of weak cold fronts push through the FA this weekend bringing chances of showers and tstorms which represent subVFR potential.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 430 PM Friday...

A modest pressure gradient across the area this afternoon will continue through tonight and tighten tomorrow, supporting a continuation of modest southwesterly flow (10-20kt) across area waters. Boating conditions deteriorate tomorrow with tightening gradient ahead of the front. Gusts over coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound increase to 25-30 kt, and SCA remains in effect for those zones tomorrow midday into the overnight hours. Seas offshore stay at 3-4 feet in currently flow, but will increase to 5-6 feet by tomorrow afternoon.

In general, the thunderstorm risk appears much lower today compared to yesterday. That said, at least some guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms may impact the central and northern waters later today through this evening. Should this occur, there would be an increased risk of 30-50kt+ wind gusts.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0430 Friday...

Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday.
High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM.
Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for May 16th, Friday.

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1933 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1994 and 1991 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 94/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 89/1995 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1998 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for May 17th, Saturday.
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1941 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 86/1991 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 95/1915 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 85/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 93/1990 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-231.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158.