NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/

As of 9:40 PM Wednesday...Temps were lowered across the CWA to match current obs. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast with the 10 PM update.

- Patchy fog possible tonight (20-40% chance)

Downstream of Hurricane Francine, surface and upper level ridging will remain in place over the Carolinas through tonight.
Meanwhile, coastal troughing may attempt to tighten up some off the Southeast U.S. coastline, especially as low pressure drifts west across the far SW Atlantic. Along the coast, this should prevent winds from going calm. Even inland, there may be just enough of a gradient to prevent winds from going calm. Away from the coast, the potential for light winds and low T/Td spreads may support another round of patchy fog. Confidence is low, though, because of uncertainty regarding calm vs light winds, and widespread high clouds. With this forecast update, I added patchy fog for a portion of the coastal plain. We will continue to evaluate this potential in later forecast updates, in case the risk of fog were to increase. Temperatures will be cool again tonight, especially inland, but high clouds should keep temps from getting as low as they otherwise could.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

- Quiet weather expected for most of ENC on Thursday

Surface high pressure will begin to shift away from the Northeast U.S. on Thursday, with a decreasing influence across ENC. Offshore, a weak area of low pressure, or general coastal troughing, is forecast to reside off the Southeast U.S. coast.
The tightening gradient within the trough should support a subtle uptick in winds compared to today, especially along the coast.

Additionally, a moistening easterly flow appears supportive of a gradual increase in moisture quality across the area, with PWATs rising back into the 1.00-1.50" range. This isn't anomalous for this time of year, but is noteworthy given the very dry airmass of late. Within this moistening airmass, ensemble guidance show some weak support for coastal showers, especially in the vicinity of the Crystal Coast. I've kept the chance of showers below 15% for now, but the probability may need to be increased in later forecasts, especially if the moisture returns faster than forecast, or if the coastal trough ends up more prominent, lift-wise. Low-level thicknesses are forecast to increase on Thursday, but with widespread high clouds, and increasing low clouds, temperatures should end up close to, if not even lower, than today.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure will continue to wedge down into the Carolinas into the end of the week keeping things mostly dry but also bringing below avg temps and comfortable dewpoints to the area. Unsettled weather then returns this weekend as Hurricane Francine lifts north into the Deep South and a frontal boundary lifts north towards the area with unsettled conditions persisting into early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday...No significant changes in the forecast as upper ridging will continue to build across the Eastern CONUS with a rex block developing towards the end of the workweek as an upper low associated with Hurricane Francine in the western Gulf of Mexico lifts into the Deep South and stalls somewhere over the Southeast through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a surface ridge of high pressure across the Mid- Atlantic will gradually weaken, but remain wedged across the Carolinas through Saturday. This will allow a stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf of Mexico and central FL to lift northward towards the area but remain just to the south.
Depending on how far north the boundary gets this weekend will dictate the coverage of precip across ENC. Followed closely to NBM which brings slight chance to chance PoPs across the CWA
With this high pressure ridge wedged across the Carolinas, east to northeast winds will prevail and result in seasonably cool temps with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday into midweek...There is a lot of uncertainty with how the pattern devolves over the latter half of the weekend and into next week as Francine dissipates over the Tennessee River Valley. Guidance continues to hint at a low developing off the Southeast coast Mon into Tue with most global guidance suggesting this low then tracking inland by midweek. Will note, given that blocking patterns can be notoriously difficult to predict, expect a lot of variability in model solutions in the coming days and as a result capped PoP's at SChc to Chc until more certainty in the eventual outcome of this lows exact track and strength comes into focus. Either way this likely sets up an unsettled pattern for ENC from Sun on into midweek next week.
Expect avg to slightly below avg temps from Sun on into midweek given expected cloud cover, increased chance for showers and storms and continued E'rly onshore flow.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...Our low level moisture is increasing, so greater cloud cover will move north through the rest of the evening. Hi-res guidance is indicating a chance (40-60%) for sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities late tonight through early Thursday morning, especially for the inner coastal plain terminals (ISO and PGV). However, the combination of broken high clouds keeping us from radiating very well and ENE winds around 5 kt keeping us mixed may be enough to prevent fog development. The most likely scenario appears to be low stratus with some patchy fog development in areas where sky cover is less and the winds become lighter. Any fog or low stratus that develops will dissipate tomorrow morning with conditions remaining VFR through the rest of the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions forecast through Thursday night as high pressure continues to ridge across the area into this weekend. A frontal boundary will lift toward the area late in the week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing this weekend which may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise E-NE winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up near 15 kts will be possible through the entire period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/..
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

- Building winds and seas through Thursday

High pressure over the Northeast U.S. will shift east into the northern Atlantic through Thursday. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to continue moving west through the SW Atlantic. In between these two features, a tightening pressure gradient is expected to support easterly winds building to 10-20kt through Thursday, with higher gusts. The combination of the building winds and the persistent easterly flow should allow seas to build to 4-6 ft from south to north across the coastal waters on Thursday. Prior to that, seas will generally be in the 2-4 ft range. Through Thursday, we'll plan to keep the ongoing marine hazards as-is, mainly focused on the risk of 6 ft seas across the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south through Surf City.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Guidance continues to show a ridge of high pressure wedged across portions of the Carolinas through Sat while a stalled boundary currently well south of the area in the northern Gulf of Mexico lifts N'wards. Guidance has trended towards a tighter pressure gradient across our waters resulting in slightly stronger winds towards the end of this week and into this weekend. Given this have increased NE-E'rly winds across our waters to 15-20 kts by Thurs evening, with winds changing little though this weekend. In addition to this, seas will gradually increase across our coastal waters late this weekend with the approach of a developing low pressure system off the Southeastern Coast resulting in seas building to 5-8 ft across our coastal zones by Sun. As a result have recently hoisted SCA's for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with the SCA's persisting into the end of the period. Will likely need SCA's for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet later this week as well given current trends.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.