Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for River Road, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages...

- Flurries continue this afternoon across ENC, but with temps in the 40s, no impacts expected

- Clearing skies this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with lows in the 20s inland

An overperforming clipper system has kept the area cloudy all day, and there continues to be reports of flurries or light snow across ENC. With surface temps in the 40s, no impacts are expected.

Skies will clear from south to north this evening, and with winds remaining light, good radiational cooling conditions will develop and temps should plummet quickly through the 30s inland to the mid to upper 20s by morning. Some wind will remain overnight along the coast, keeping lows mostly above freezing in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 2 PM Fri...Heights will rise tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front, as SW flow develops. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 2 PM Friday...

Key Messages...

- Strong cold front to move through Sunday with breezy conditions and a round of light rain which may mix with or change to snow briefly before ending

- Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the single digits Sunday night/Monday morning

Sunday and Monday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has now gone in the opposite direction, now with decreasing PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow, briefly, before ending late afternoon and evening.

Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. CAA continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday. Confidence is increasing that cold weather headlines will be needed for much of the area, including the coast.

Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday and Thursday night with a cold front potentially approaching the area. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1240 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

VFR conditions are ongoing across all of ENC as of this update as high and mid clouds have moved out of the area. Currently under clear skies and calm winds across ENC as high pressure has moved overhead the Mid-Atlantic. Some patchy shallow ground fog is possible across the more susceptible terminals though this morning but no operational impacts are expected from this ground fog. As we get into the day on Sat VFR conditions will persist through the day and into tonight as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. This will allow calm winds to become SW'rly at about 5kts or so by mid morning Sat. As we get into the evening hours, a cold front begins approaching from the north and west which will allow for high and mid clouds to begin to build in from the west. Regardless ceilings will likely remain above 20 kft into 06Z Sun.

Outlook: Increased chances for sub-VFR conditions developing after 06Z Sun into Sun afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Cold front should also bring a chance at some light precip which could also result in a brief period of lowered visibility as well. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Mon. VFR conditions return on Monday and persist through midweek.

MARINE
As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- Gale Watches issued for most of the coastal waters and sounds for Sunday night through Monday for winds NNW 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kts

Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through tomorrow with winds veering from the north this afternoon to east tonight and finally southwest tomorrow at 5-10 kts. SW winds increase tomorrow afternoon to 10-15 kts, and then to 15-25 kts overnight through Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will be strongest over the warm Gulf Stream waters where winds could briefly gust to 30 kts ahead of the front Sunday. Behind the front winds will switch the NW and strengthen to 25-35 kts Sunday night with gusts to 40-45 kts.

Seas will be 2-3 ft through tomorrow night, and then will increase to 4-6 ft by Sunday afternoon. Seas increase quickly behind the cold front to 6-10 ft by late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Outlook: Winds and seas will decrease through the day Monday, falling below Small craft criteria by Monday evening. Winds become W Tuesday at 10-20 kts, and then back slightly to the SW Wednesday at 10-20 kts still. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through midweek.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ131-230-231.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ135.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for AMZ150-152-154.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ156-158.