Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for River Road, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong cold front set to move through tonight brings gusty southerly winds with a threat for severe thunderstorms through tonight.

2) Arctic airmass builds in through mid-week with coldest airmass since mid February. Mins well down below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Marine...Gale force wind gusts for all marine zones through tonight ahead of strong cold front.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
As of 420 PM

Severe weather event is ongoing across eastern North Carolina this afternoon and will extend into the evening hours. Tornado Watch remains in effect for all counties and waters through 8 PM tonight. Impressive upper air pattern taking shape with highly amplified neutral- tilt trough centered over the Great Lakes and Gulf states forecast to become increasingly negatively-tilted into the evening hours. Strong low pressure centered over southwestern Quebec is driving a powerful cold front across the Appalachians and into the Piedmont of NC, and this front is expected to race across our area this evening, pushing well offshore into Tues morning.

Convective mode across our region is increasingly messy and making it increasingly difficult to realize more discreet cells and therefore a prominent tornado threat. The most favorable area for more discreet development is across the eastern portions of the Albemarle Peninsula and Outer Banks. Otherwise, the tornado risk will transition more to QLCS as a strongly forced line makes its way across the FA later this evening ahead of the main front.

Because of all the stabilization from this afternoon's convection, the odds for a more enhanced severe threat from the aforementioned line is decreasing. Despite the lack of buoyancy, the kinematics associated with the line could still support stronger winds in excess of 60 mph in any bowing segments that develop.

With the aforementioned strong wind field in place, gusts of up to 45- 50 mph still possible for the OBX and Down East Carteret, though even remaining adjacent coastal counties will see wind gusts of 40-45 mph this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all counties bordering sounds and the coast through 10 PM tonight. High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Mon with beach erosion and ocean overwash remaining a concern for vulnerable locations susceptible to S'rly wave directions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The initial blast of CAA directly behind Mon's front will lead to MinTs in the 30s, though above freezing as atms will be mixed with ongoing CAA. Arctic high pres builds in Tue through Thu. The afternoon's CAA and the center of the high settling almost directly overhead late Tue night/early Wed will lead to clearing skies and calming winds. These conditions will prime the FA for strong radiational cooling effects, leading to MinTs well down in the 20s for mainland areas, with 30s DownEast, beachfront, and OBX nearer the warmer waters. Another subfreezing night Wed night with high pres still nearby. As a result any planting that has been done given our recent stretch of warm weather should take proper precautions to protect plants and any outdoor pipes before we warm Thursday and beyond.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread sub-VFR ongoing at the terminals this afternoon, as showers and thunderstorms overspread the area. Pred sub-VFR expected through this evening, with tempo IFR in heavier showers/storms. Some storms may be strong to severe, with the the threats for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Tornado Watch in effect through 00z. Sfc winds will continue to gust 30-40 kt outside of convection, and will keep LLWS mentioned until strong cold front goes through the FA from W to E this evening. Precip threat ends directly behind the front with winds turning Werly but diminishing significantly.
Some MVFR CIGs could linger for ~an hr behind the front but will quickly clear to SKC behind that.

Outlook...Pred VFR conditions will continue through the period.
Uneventful reinforcing cold front crosses through TUE and high pressure dominates the forecast through the remainder of the work-week, keeping VFR flights cats in place.

MARINE
A strong cold front is forecast to cross from W to E tonight.
Strong srly gradient will further increase this afternoon into tonight with gale gusts for all marine area of ENC, and thus expanded gale warnings for all zones, mainly due to afternoon mixing coinciding with strongest wind field and gusts exceeding gale gusts even on the inland rivers and sounds. In addition to the strong background wind field, a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly in form of gusty winds and a few waterspouts expected through early this evening before winds diminish towards midnight as cold front sweeps eastward and offshore.

Outlook: Winds become N-Nerly mid-week behind TUE's reinforcing front remaining generally 5-15G20kt through the remainder of the work week. Sea-driven SCAs likely to remain active into Wed morning, continuing to improve through late week. Low pressure system well offshore late week expected to increase swell and could further the need for extending SCAs that follow the Gales MON and TUE.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047-080- 081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231.
Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135-150.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.