Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for River Road, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening, with the main threat of damaging wind gusts.

2) Becoming hot and humid again this week with highs in the 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front entering the FA from the W. The cold front and shortwave will continue to push Eward this afternoon and evening, shunted offshore by weak low pressure developing along the front. 15Z MHX special sounding showed almost 6kJ/kg CAPE and bulk shear (25-40 kt) which led to the clusters of multicell tstorms which are continuing to impact the area.
Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for all of Eastern North Carolina until 2000edt. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts, however a localized tornado threat could develop wherever locally backed near sfc winds occur. Multi cell storms possibly morphing into a qlcs ahead of and along the front, which will keep at least a low end severe threat for the Sern half of the FA through this evening. Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible, which could lead to a minor flood threat...best chances for areas north of Hwy 264. Front will sweep offshore around or shortly after sunset this evening, with precip grad ending from west to east.

KEY MESSAGE 2...With the return SWerly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wed behind the fropa, when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into the weekend. Typical summertime diurnal convective chances return Sat into early next week. Have added CLIMATE section below to advertise Record High temps for FRI and this weekend when heat increases again in the Serly summertime pattern. Heat headlines may be needed SAT.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front will approach the area today, pushing across terminals late afternoon into the evening hours. SW winds will gust around 20-30 kt ahead of the front, becoming northerly and diminishing after fropa. Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase through the afternoon bringing a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and lightning the primary threats with the storms. This may bring temporary sub-VFR conditions to the terminals, with best chances between 18-00z. Have continued MVFR prevailing groups with TEMPO groups for all terminals. Winds turn Nerly behind the front becoming lighter relative to this afternoon with precip quickly ending and skies clearing after midnight. Winds are expected to go light and variable in the early morning hours. Guidance has been consistent in no VIS restrictions due to fog and too much drying through the low to mid levels, keeping postfrontal stratus threat low. However, have added a line with light and var winds, SKC, and non-restrictive shallow fog to show the potential for some fog development. Should winds decouple, especially over terminals that saw substantial rainfall this afternoon and evening, subVFR fog development will be possible.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Pred VFR conditions expected. Mostly dry for Wed and Thu with high pres rebuilding. Next precip chance on Fri night into Sat with another system approaching.

MARINE
SSW winds peak directly ahead of the front that will reach the coast around sunset and push out to sea. 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt this afternoon/early evening with seas building to 4-7 ft.
SCAs continue for the nearshore coastal waters, Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers. Flow becoming NW-N 10-20 kt behind it, along with grad subsiding seas. Sct showers and storms expected in the afternoon and evening, diminishing quickly behind the front, though some lighter showers wrapping around the departing low will be possible through around midnight.

Outlook (Wed through Sat): Moderate N-NE winds Wed, grad veering becoming light Wed night into Thu. S-SW winds return Thu night into Fri though looks to remain below SCA conditions. SW winds increase to 10-20 kt Sat.

CLIMATE
Record High Temps for 06/26 (Friday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 103/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/2011 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 99/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 100/1997 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1968 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temps for 06/27 (Saturday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 105/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 94/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 100/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 97/2010 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/1998 (NCA ASOS)

Record High Temps for 06/28 (Sunday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 99/1959 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 99/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 102/1959 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 97/2010 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/1978 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.