Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Road, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:37PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:38 AM EDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 325 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds around 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Road, NC
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location: 35.49, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 140809
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
409 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through late this afternoon and tonight.

High pressure will quickly pass through the area on Tuesday.

Low pressure will move up the east coast Wednesday, and push a
cold front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will
build in late week and into next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 240 am mon... Latest sfc analysis shows cold front
extending from the mid-atlantic coast down through central nc
and into the fl panhandle... With weak lows along it. The cold
front will continue to slowly approach from the west today,
pushing through late this afternoon and evening. Latest radar
imagery shows widespread showers and isolated tstms ahead of the
front and aided by shortwave energy aloft. Precip should be
tapering off from west to east towards sunrise this morning,
lingering along the coast through mid morning. Brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain likely early this morning, where some
spots along the coast could pick up a quick inch or more. Cloud
cover should diminish mid morning into the afternoon, improving
from west to east as much drier and cooler air filters into the
area. Will remain mild today with temps near to a few degrees
abv climo, with highs 75-80 deg.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As of 240 am mon... The front will continue to push offshore
tonight with high pressure building in behind it, while aloft
flow becomes more zonal. Lowered temps a few degrees from
previous forecast, with mostly clear skies and calm winds should
set up decent radiational cooling conditions. Lows dropping to
around 50 low 50s inland and lows 60s for the beaches. Some
guidance shows lows dropping into the upper 40s inland tue
morning. Some patchy fog will be possible early Tue morning.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 330 am Monday... High pressure will briefly build into the
area Tuesday. A stronger low pressure area and attendant cold
front will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure
building in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and
drier airmass.

Tuesday... The cold push south of the area Monday night and
Tuesday with high pressure building in from the northwest. Highs
expected in the upper 70s to around 80 inland to mid 70s along
the coast as there will be little CAA behind the front and
return flow developing Tuesday afternoon with the high quickly
migrating offshore.

Tuesday through Wednesday night... High pressure briefly builds
in from the north Tuesday then migrates off the mid-atlantic
coast Tuesday night as a more robust upper level system
approaches from the west and an area of low pressure develops
across the southeast and deepens as it tracks across the
carolina piedmont and offshore Wednesday. Isentropic lift
increases across the area Tuesday evening with widespread precip
developing across the area after midnight. A warm front will
lift across portions of the area Wednesday morning before the
cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest instability
will develop in the warm sector with strong shear and forcing
present bringing a chance for thunderstorms ahead of the cold
front. There may also be a risk for severe storms as well with
mucape values potentially reaching 1000-1500 j kg with deep
layer shear around 40 kts. There is some uncertainly in just how
much instability will occur though as the 14 00z NAM and gfs
have trended a little eastward with the low, tracking it near or
along the coast, bringing less instability to much of the area,
especially inland, however, the cmc and ECMWF still have more
of an inland track. We could see beneficial rainfall with models
showing widespread QPF amounts around 3 4 to 1 inch. Temps
remain seasonably mild Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night remain mild ahead of the
cold front with low mainly in the mid 60s. Strong CAA develops
behind the cold front late Wednesday and especially Wednesday
night with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland to
mid 50s coast.

Thursday through Sunday... Strong high pressure builds in from
the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much
cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows
in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the
coast. The high migrates offshore over the weekend with ridging
building aloft with dry conditions persisting and MAX temps
warming into the 70s.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 240 am mon... Mixed bag of MVFR andVFR conditions
currently across the sites, as widespread showers and isolated
tstms continue. Main challenge this morning is potential for a
few hours of ifr conditions, mainly in ceilings. Not overly
confident, but think there is a decent chance given the set up
and agreement in guidance. Showers will taper off from west to
early towards sunrise or shortly thereafter. Expect ceilings to
gradually lift and scatter out, becomingVFR by mid morning,
then clearing late this afternoon and early evening behind the
front. Some patchy fog will be possible tonight into tue
morning, with clear skies and calm winds.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am Monday... PredVFR conditions expected Tuesday with
high pressure migrating north of the area. A strengthening low
pressure area will lift across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with widespread sub-vfr conditions in showers and
isolated thunderstorms expected. A strong cold front will push
through Wednesday afternoon with predVFR conditions returning
and continuing through the end of the week as strong high
pressure builds in from the west. Strong south to southwest
winds expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to around
25 kt at the terminals Tuesday night and Wednesday with a period
of gusty northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 240 am mon... Latest obs show S SW winds 5-15 kt with seas
3-5 ft. Cold front will approach from the west today, pushing
through the waters late this afternoon and evening. Winds become
more W wsw 15 kt or less this afternoon, then N NW behind the
front. Swell will continue to slowly subside today and tonight.

Though combination of winds and lingering swell energy will keep
seas 3-5 ft today and 2-4 ft tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 4 am Monday... High pressure briefly build into the waters
from the north Tuesday with northeast to east winds around 10
kt and seas around 2-3 ft. Winds veer to SE and S and begin to
increase Tuesday night ahead of the next system with sca
conditions expected to return Wednesday as a low pressure moves
across the area. A warm front will lift across the waters
Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming south to
southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas
building to 6-10 ft Wednesday. The front pushes through
Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25
kt Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside
through the end of the work week.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 56 mi69 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 65 mi39 min SE 13 G 14 68°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.3)68°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 71 mi69 min S 9.9 G 17 69°F 72°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC6 mi44 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F64°F96%1016.6 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC23 mi44 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S6S7SW8SW5SW6S4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3S4
G8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3SE3W5SW6W7W3W8SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSW4SW5SW5SW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN7N6N6NW7N10
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N9N7CalmCalmCalmNE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.70.40.30.511.62.12.52.62.421.510.60.40.40.71.31.82.22.42.3

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:47 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:02 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.51.10.70.40.20.30.71.21.82.12.22.11.81.410.60.40.30.511.51.92

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.