NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 7 AM Sat...A cold front will push south of Eastern NC this morning and bring an end to our recent wet pattern. But before that happens scattered showers will continue for the next couple of hours, especially along the Crystal Coast and Outer/Inner Banks where activity will be the most widespread and continue through at least mid morning.

Drier air will move into the area from the north shortly as high pressure builds in from the Mid-Atlantic. This will cause quickly clearing skies across northern NC over the next few hours, while conditions remain cloudy and slightly showery further south until early this afternoon as moisture from the front hangs around just off the southern coast. Expect below normal highs with readings mostly in the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 7 AM Sat...Dry high pressure will settle in over the area tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Good radiational cooling conditions will promote strong cooling inland, and temperatures will drop into the low 60s here, and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. With the anticipated cooling and recent heavy rains there will be a risk for some patchy fog development, but not sure of the extent yet.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 345 AM Sat...Drier pattern lingers into Monday before returning to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the next work week.

Sun through Mon...Cutoff low off the coast of the mid- Atlantic will retreat back into New England to start the period. High pressure will still be overhead to start Sunday, but will quickly shift east over the Atlantic on Monday. Dry conditions will continue both days as dry air and subsidence spill over the Carolinas thanks to northerly flow aloft.
Conditions will feel more comfortable compared to the past several days as dew points drop into the low to mid-60s, especially across the coastal plain, while highs top out in the mid to upper 80s - slightly below average for late July. By Monday, as high pushes offshore southerly flow will usher in higher dew points and a return to more typically humid conditions.

Tues through Fri...Brief period of ridging aloft breaks down after Monday as the cutoff low continues to meander westward before being absorbed by the northern stream shortwave. This will leave a general troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the week, meaning moist southwesterly flow returns along with a more typical summertime regime characterized by diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Support aloft will not be nearly as strong, and moisture not as anomalous as the previous several days, so climo PoPs are appropriate for ENC starting Tuesday. Wednesday is trending towards being the most favorable day for storms while troughing is at its most pronounced. Mid- level heights rise above average, and temperatures gradually follow suit, increasing to near- normal readings in the low 90s by the end of the period.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sat...We are still holding on to some IFR ceilings across southern NC, while conditions have improved to VFR farther north as a result of drier air moving in behind a cold front. Expect slowly but steadily improving conditions across the southern coast with VFR conditions returning by mid morning.

Continued influx of dry air today will allow for VFR conditions to return and continue into tonight. Overnight, strong radiational cooling and a very saturated ground will likely lead to patchy fog formation, with the best chances for fog existing over the coastal plain, including KPGV and KISO.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast from Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area.
Fog and low stratus are possible each night, although the likelihood is higher starting Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and deeper moisture returns. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm threat returns for all terminals starting Tuesday, with best chances for coastal plain sites.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Marginal Small Craft conditions will develop later this morning as NNE/NE flow increases behind a cold front.
SCAs have been issued for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound and Neuse River until this evening.

Winds are currently NE 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and will continue more or less at this strength through late this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will subside, and become mostly NNE 10-20 kts overnight. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through the period, but could reach 6 ft at times south of Oregon Inlet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM Fri...No hazardous marine conditions are anticipated in the long term. High pressure remains over the waters on Sunday before quickly moving offshore on Monday, resulting in winds returning to a more typical south- to- southwesterly flow to start the work week. Northeasterly winds of 10-15 kt on Sunday return to a more typical southerly regime at 5-10 kt, with typical increases in late afternoons as thermal gradients increase. Seas gradually return to 2-4 feet through the rest of the week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 152-154-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ137.