NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 7:30 PM Thursday...The showers are coming to an end as the upper level trough pushes offshore and a ridge starts to build in from the west. With all of the rain we have received over the past few days, our boundary layer is very moist, which will likely support the development of fog and low stratus between midnight and sunrise. Overnight lows will dip to the mid 60s across the coastal plain and near 70 along the beaches.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Thurs...Mid/upper level trough continues to push further offshore on Friday as high pressure starts to ridge S'wards across the Carolinas. Decreased forcing and a drop in PWATs will bring partly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions to ENC to end our workweek. Some hi-res guidance is trying to show a few isolated showers along the coastal plain in the evening Friday, but continued to keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast for now given lack of forcing and expected widespread dry air moving over the area. With light NE'rly flow across the area temps get into the mid 70s to low 80s on Fri.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough moves offshore Friday and ridging starts building in through the weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting to our east. Seasonable (or just below) temps through the period and generally dry through Tuesday.

The Weekend: Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting south, but there is still some model uncertainty on the strength of the low and how close to us it reaches. Regardless it will be too far away for any substantial impacts, but it could produce gusts of 20-25 mph for OBX and some showers along and east of hwy 17 along a shortwave. This low could also produce high swell impacting OBX beaches. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information.

Monday-Wednesday: Ridging and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. The high over the SE starts weakening and a low trekking across the great lakes region brings higher chances of rain to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 7:30 PM Thursday...Clouds and their subsequent showers are diminishing as the sun goes down across ENC. Tonight presents another opportunity for the development of fog and low stratus, which is likely to impact all terminals. After midnight, ceilings and visibilities will start to drop. Several areas received a healthy amount of rainfall today and guidance backed off on cloud cover, both of which increase confidence for more widespread and impactful fog. Conditions should bottom out between 9-12Z when visibility is expected to drop to at least IFR if not LIFR. Conditions will improve after 12Z with flight cats returning to VFR for the rest of the period with light winds and scattered mid-level clouds.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the long term, although Saturday morning could see some fog as skies clear and winds calm.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thurs... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across our waters mainly south of Oregon Inlet today bringing a low end threat for some locally enhanced winds and seas to the area. Otherwise with high pressure ridging gradually building S'wards into the Carolinas through Friday a 5-15 kt N-NE'rly wind with gusts up to 15-20 kts will persist across all waters through Friday. 3-5 ft seas are currently noted across our coastal waters this afternoon and shouldn't change much through Friday, though it should be noted seas are forcast to be on the increase late Fri afternoon or early Fri evening as swell from a deepening non-tropical low to the northeast begins to arrive.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Sustained northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Friday, near 15 kt Saturday, then 15-20 kt Sunday/Monday. Winds have trended down a tad Sunday into Monday morning, and while SCA conditions are likely, chances of gale force winds have decreased to 10%. The strength of the winds depends on the position and strength of the low developing offshore to our northeast, and how strong the ridging pushing in from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday, 3-6 ft Saturday, 4-7 ft Sunday, and 4-9 ft Monday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height ranges.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 PM Thurs...Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle through this weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into SUnday mornings high tide.
Increased swell from a low offshore brings overwash risks late this weekend into early next week for OBX.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday night to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-152-154.