Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waves, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:19PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 332 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waves, NC
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location: 35.51, -74.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210751
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
351 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure ridging down the east coast remains in control
through tonight. A cold front will push through the area late
Tuesday night, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Another
cold front approaches the area by the end of week.

Near term today
As of 3 am mon... High pressure over eastern canada will ridge
down the east coast today as low pressure off the mid-atlantic
coast continues to weaken and slide further offshore. Low level
moisture will trend downward within the moderate caa, and
stratus will scatter out through the morning. Pockets of
sunshine will emerge between the remaining scattered low clouds
and scattered cirrus (brought about by modest height falls in
the upper levels), bringing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
for most, depending on the amount of sunshine received. Dry
conditions prevail as mid-level subsidence keeps an overall
stable and dry profile in place.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am mon... The surface ridge will begin to weaken
overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Despite
light to calm winds for most of the area, some lingering low
clouds and scattered cirrus will provide some inhibition to
radiational cooling. However, increasing low level moisture
advection will be sufficient to prompt the formation of fog and
low stratus with even modest cooling through the evening, and
patchy fog is expected to develop late. Deep layer moisture
advection will occur through most of the night, but despite pwat
values climbing from less than an inch to over 1.5 inches over
the course of the night, too much dry air will linger in the
mid- levels to justify any significant pop in the forecast. Lows
will generally be around 60, though any locations that
experience significant clearing could drop well into the 50s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 315 am mon... A cold front will approach the area allowing for
another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The frontal boundary is forecast to push offshore late
Tuesday night, followed by high pressure building in, allowing
for drier and cooler weather. Another front approaches the
carolinas towards the end of the week.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... A deep mid upper level trough axis over
the miss valley and oh tn valley will move eastward, while at the
sfc a low pressure system moves over the great lakes southern
canada. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front is forecasted to
approach the carolinas Tuesday. As the frontal boundary
progresses eastward, a secondary low is expected to develop and
move across enc. Models are showing an increase of instability
with CAPE values 500-1000 j kg, shear 45-60 kt, increasing
helicity, and precip water ranging 1.75-2.10"... Resulting in
possible severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the area to
slight risk of severe wx with the main threat of damaging winds
and possible tornadoes.

Wednesday through Thursday... After the frontal passage, high
pressure will build in from the west allowing a drier and
cooler airmass to filter in. Expect dry wx and seasonable
temperatures during this period with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Wednesday, then low 70s Thursday.

Friday through Sunday... Another significant mid to upper level
trough drops down from the northern plain into the central conus,
but afterward models diverge in the evolution of the mid to upper
level patten. At the sfc, a cold front is expected to approach the
area as GFS is faster with the frontal passage due to the
progressive pattern aloft, while the euro has a cut-off low
developing over the southern plain delaying the onset of precip for
this weekend. Overall, there is low confidence for this period,
therefore slightly decreased pops (low end chance). Temperatures
will remain seasonable with highs in the lower 70s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 130 am mon... Very challenging forecast through the rest
of the morning hours. Satellite imagery reveals stratus
blanketing the entire area, with obs indicating low-end MVFR to
high-end ifr ceilings. Guidance indicates that some breaks in
the stratus could develop through the early morning hours as the
low slides a bit further off the mid-atlantic coast. However,
this could allow for modest radiational cooling, which will
feedback by encouraging the formation of fog and low-end ifr
stratus. Have opted for prevailing MVFR along us hwy 17 at ewn
and oaj, with prevailing ifr inland at iso and pgv through
daybreak.

High pressure building down the coast will prompt low clouds
to scatter out by late this morning, andVFR will prevail
through the day. Increased low level moisture ahead of an
approaching front will bring the threat for fog and low stratus
once again late tonight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 315 am mon... A cold front will approach the area Tuesday and
Tuesday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms, allowing
for periods of sub-vfr conditions. A dry cooler airmass will filter
in afterward, resulting inVFR conditions for the rest of the
period.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 3 am mon... A north-northwesterly surge is ongoing mainly
across the waters near and north of CAPE hatteras as high
pressure builds inland this morning. This surge will be short-
lived, with moderate to light north to northeasterly winds
prevail this afternoon and evening. The ridge axis will slide
over the coast overnight, veering winds and causing light flow
to prevail. Seas remain elevated, around 6 to 9 ft this
morning, and will gradually diminish through the period as low
pressure off the mid-atlantic coast slowly weakens and moves
further offshore.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 320 am mon... A cold front will approach the area from the
west with SW winds increasing to 15-20 knots with possible
gusts up to 25 knots Tuesday. Winds will become NW N behind the
front as winds gradually become 10-15 knots Wednesday. Seas are
expected to build to 4-6 ft ahead of the front, then subside to
2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Thursday through Friday, winds veer
to E 10-15 knots as seas are 2-3 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for ncz203-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for amz135-
158.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
amz131-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for amz156.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Bm
aviation... Bm cb
marine... Bm cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44095 27 mi34 min 73°F8 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 38 mi56 min NW 14 G 22 61°F 68°F1011.4 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 40 mi30 min NW 21 G 29 65°F 77°F7 ft1011.1 hPa62°F
44086 42 mi25 min 72°F8 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 46 mi50 min NNW 20 G 24 62°F 70°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC41 mi29 minNW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4N3CalmN34NE6NE65464NE4NE3NE4E4E5S10SE11S11SE12SE13SE11
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2 days ago4555N8
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NW75NW75NW855434CalmNW3CalmNW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina
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Rodanthe
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.921.91.61.20.70.40.30.50.91.52.22.73.13.12.82.21.60.90.40.10.20.51

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.