Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belhaven, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Precip chances wane this afternoon.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.
However, the heat returns.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Last day of above average precipitation chances as a stalled upper trough that had brought multiple days of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity to the area finally shifts north and gets absorbed by an incoming upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes region. At the same time, mid level shortwave energy shifts to the north and west as well. On top of this, for the rest of the afternoon, surface boundary to the north and west of the area continues to gradually dissipate while S'rly flow keeps PWATs around the 2-2.5" range today. Any leftover upper level forcing combined with the daily seabreeze should be enough to kick start additional rounds of isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with heavy to torrential rainfall possible. While storm motions should be progressive, storms will be capable of dropping a quick 1-2", resulting in minor flooding concerns. After we lose daytime heating, rain chances go down drastically. Highs today have gotten into the mid 80s with lows tonight forecast to be in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more zonal pattern aloft sets up as upper troughs and mid level shortwaves generally remain to the north of the Carolinas. This will result in a return to more avg to below avg rain chances across ENC from Thur on into next week as main forcing will be from the daily seabreeze. While chances will certainly be lower ample instability will build across the region given the partly cloudy skies and moist environment so wouldn't be shocked at a daily 20-30% chance of shower or thunderstorm activity from Thurs onwards along he inland moving seabreeze each afternoon. Given the lower precip chances the main story from Thurs onwards will be the return of the heat with highs getting into the upper 80s to low 90s each day into next week. COmbined with dewpoints generally in the 70s each day will bring heat indices between 95-105F each day. While below heat headline criteria this will make it feel uncomfortably hot over the next few days. Not much relief overnight as lows get into the 70s each night.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Primarily VFR conditions are noted across ENC outside of any ongoing shower/tstm activity where a mix of MVFR vis/ceilings are currently seen. This will continue into the evening before shower and tstm chances end. Have kept the persistence forecast going at TAF sites with PROB30 groups this afternoon. As we get into tonight, guidance once again suggests we have the potential for periods of low stratus and patchy fog after 06Z Thurs across much of ENC with NBM/HRRR probs of ceilings below 3 kft at about 20-40%. However, will note, guidance has been pessimistic these last few nights and despite the ample low level moisture most areas have remained VFR outside of shower/tstm activity. Given this, have kept all sites VFR through Thursday afternoon with just a FEW/SCT deck of MVFR ceilings tonight at all TAF sites between 09-12Z Thurs. Winds remain light and S'rly through the period.

Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning.

MARINE
Outside of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, benign boating conditions are noted with S'rly winds at 10-15 kts across all waters and 2-4 ft seas across the coastal waters.
Conditions wont change much over the next few days as a Bermuda high nudges in from the east resulting in lower precip chances across our waters from Thurs into early next week and steady S-SW'rly winds at 5-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Will note there is a low end chance for a thermal trough to set up starting Fri and going through the weekend as inland areas heat up. This could result in brief periods of near SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times each afternoon and evening.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199.
MARINE...None.