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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1008 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am est Sunday...
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Areas of fog late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft, then, then around 2 ft.

AMZ100 1008 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Unsettled weather with light rainfall amounts continues through Sunday. High pressure builds in for Mon and Tue followed by a strong cold front Wed. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front Thu.

FXUS62 KMHX 030308 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1008 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather with light rainfall amounts continues through Sunday. High pressure builds in for Mon and Tue followed by a strong cold front Wed. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front Thu.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 10 PM Sat...A warm and saturated airmass will continue over Eastern NC tonight ahead of a cold front. Periods of rain will continue overnight, but there will be lack of much focus with much of the lift either to our north or south. Best chances for rain will likely be along the coast and offshore overnight.

Temperatures are likely to hold steady or fall only slightly overnight, with lows expected in the low to mid 60s. There will be a risk for patchy fog to develop again, but confidence is lower on its intensity. Speaking of fog, areas of sea fog continue across the Outer Banks with much of the Crystal Coast temporarily cleared. Fog along the OBX is expected to continue through the night, becoming locally dense at times.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 230 PM Sat...Continued mild Sun with scattered showers, especially in the morning. Some of the temp guidance is indicating highs in the upper 70s but think that low clouds in the morning will tend to persist into early afternoon before dissipating so went with low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday...As the mid-level ridge over the ECONUS builds and the trough over the Midwest deepens, the gradient will tighten and bring an uptick in winds. The surface low associated with this trough will drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring Chance to Likely PoPs with the chance for some offshore thunderstorms. The forecast has trended slightly drier over the past 24 hours with Sunday's daytime QPF down to approx. 0.1". Temps have trended up with highs in the low to mid 70s across the coastal plain (upper 60s beaches).

Monday - Tuesday...Another mid-level trough will sweep across the Midwest on Monday causing another cold front to traverse ENC overnight into Tuesday. This front looks fairly dry with the only impacts on sensible weather being cooler temps and an uptick in winds. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s and at or just below 60 on Tuesday across the FA.

Wednesday...Not to sound like a broken record, but another mid-level trough will dig into the SECONUS early Wednesday. This system's cold front may support some showers along the OBX, but its passage will be felt more in terms of increased winds over the water and cooler overnight temps at or just below freezing across the coastal plain (beaches remain near 40).

Thursday - Friday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's FROPA and begins a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend (low 50s Thursday, near 60 Friday).

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Evening/...
As of 700 PM Sat...Subpar aviation conditions are expected to continue tonight and into tomorrow morning after a brief reprieve over the last several hours.

A warm and saturated airmass continues across Eastern NC ahead of a cold front tonight. Cooling this evening, albeit meager, will allow for lower based clouds to redevelop as well as bring the potential for fog, though fog formation and intensity is of much lower confidence. MVFR level ceilings are likely before midnight and possibly within the next couple of hours across the coastal plain. Thereafter, ceilings will continue to lower through the early morning hours with IFR conditions developing over the coastal plain before 3-4 AM, and likely spreading east of the US 17 corridor before sunrise.

After sunrise there is some uncertainty when conditions will begin to improve, but it is looking likely that IFR/LIFR conditions continue until late morning or early afternoon across the coastal plain, and mid to late morning closer to the coast.
Then a period of MVFR conditions is expected with VFR conditions possible returning by this time tomorrow as the front moves through the region.

Along the coast, specifically north of Cape Hatteras, extensive sea fog will likely continue into tomorrow morning with IFR to MVFR conditions expected.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Fog is possible each morning, but conditions should be pred VFR through the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Areas of dense marine fog will continue to be a concern tonight over the sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras as the warm moist airmass travels across the cooler waters. This fog will likely persist into Sunday morning.

The flow across the waters will remain SW/S through Sunday. For the most part, winds tonight will be 5 to 15 kt across the waters, the exception being over the outer southern and central waters in a region of warmer SST's where the flow is 10-20 kt. On Sunday afternoon the SW flow will increase ahead of the cold front to 15-20 kt north of Ocracoke Inlet and 15-25 kt south. Thus have issued a SCA for the southern waters to account for this. Seas tonight will be mostly 3-4 ft building to to 3-5 ft north and 4-6 ft south Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Sunday night-Tuesday...Conditions drop below SCA criteria around midnight Monday. Waters north of Cape Hatteras will see SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. SCA conditions for the waters south of Oregon Inlet return Monday night into Tuesday (NW winds 15-20 kt and gusts 25+ kt, 3-5 ft seas). Conditions improve during the day Tuesday and winds will back from NW to SW (10-15 kt).

Wednesday...SCA conditions return with the strongest gusts of the period Wednesday afternoon/evening (NW 15-25 kt with 30+ kt gusts). Seas will build from 2-3 ft Wednesday morning to 3-5 ft by Wednesday night.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-135-150- 152-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for AMZ154-156-158.

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Ocracoke
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Sat -- 04:12 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:52 AM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:21 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:13 PM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Ocracoke Inlet
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Sat -- 04:19 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:46 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:14 PM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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