Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belhaven, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:33PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 646 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through late Thursday night...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belhaven town, NC
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location: 35.54, -76.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 161109
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
709 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Developing low pressure will move up the east coast today, and
push a cold front offshore tonight. Cooler high pressure will
build in late week and into the weekend. An unsettled pattern
is expected late in the weekend into early next as several
systems impact the area.

Near term today
As of 710 am wed... Latest analysis shows stacked low near the
great lakes with attendant cold front moving through the oh
valley region and associated warm front lifting through enc. The
warm front will continue to lift north through the area this
morning, while robust system approaches from the west inducing
weak cyclogenesis over the SE us. Low pressure is forecast to
lift along the nc coast this afternoon, strengthening off the
mid- atlantic coast late. Latest radar imagery shows light to
moderate showers overspreading the area this morning. Widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms expected today with most of
the activity occurring from 12-20z. Main concern today will be
the threat for locally heavy rain. Pw values increase to around
2" with decent upper level divergence and strong low level warm
advection. Could see 1-2"in spots with locally higher amounts,
especially along near the coast where surface based instability
will be greatest. Most locations should receive .25-.75". Severe
threat still looks minimal, but will need to monitor near the
coast where surface based storms will be possible with localized
strong winds gusts and perhaps a brief isolated tornado not out
of the question. Rapid drying and a decrease in precip coverage
and intensity is forecast late this afternoon and evening, from
west to east as westerly flow develops in response to low
pressure strengthening off the mid- atlantic coast. Even with
widespread clouds and precip, expect highs to climb into the low
to upper 70s today, aided by southerly flow ahead of the front.

Short term tonight
As of 240 am wed... Front will continue to push off the coast
this evening, while the base of the upper trough pivots through
the area and off the east coast. Much drier and cooler airmass
arrives behind the front overnight, as strong CAA develops. Lows
will fall into the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and
low to mid 50s along the coast.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 330 am Wednesday... High pressure will build in through
the weekend bringing a cooler and drier airmass. An unsettled
pattern is expected late in the weekend into early next as
several systems impact the area.

Thursday through Saturday... Strong high pressure builds in from
the west Thursday and Friday bringing a dry and a much cooler
airmass. High expected in the mid 60s with lows in the low to
mid 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the coast and we could
even see some upper 30s in coolest inland locations. The upper
ridge crests over the area Saturday with the surface high
migrating offshore with return flow developing bringing a
warming trend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday night through Tuesday... Upper ridging slides offshore
Saturday night while shortwave energy moving across the south
taps into rich moisture in the gulf of mexico and lifts it
across the southeast and the fa Sunday into Monday. This is
associated with the trough that is currently over southern
mexico and outlooked by nhc. Guidance has tended a bit faster
with this system and could see precip begin across the area late
Saturday night or Sunday with an area of low pressure lifting
across the area Monday. Meanwhile, a longwave mid level trough
and attendant strong cold front digs into the central conus
Monday with another surge of gulf moisture lifting into the area
Monday night ahead of the cold front which is currently progged
to push across the area late Tuesday. Temps expected to be
several degrees above normal ahead of the cold front.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 710 am wed... Widespread sub-vfr conditions expected
through most of the day. Conditions will continue to deteriorate
this morning, improving late this afternoon and early evening.

Cigs will likely lower to ifr by late this morning, as
widespread showers continue to overspread the area. Conditions
will improve late this afternoon (20-21z) from west to east as
drier air begins to spread in ending the precip with cigs
lifting. Skies become mostly clear late tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 4 am Wednesday... High pressure builds into the area
Thursday through Saturday with predVFR conditions expected. An
area of low pressure will lift toward the area late in the
weekend with shower chances increasing late Saturday night into
Sunday which could bring periods of sub-vfr conditions across
rtes.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 710 am wed... Latest obs show SE S winds 10-20 kt with
seas 2-4 ft. Strong winds and building seas expected today and
tonight. A warm front will continue to lift north through the
waters this morning, while robust system approaches from the
west inducing weak cyclogenesis over the SE us. Low pressure is
forecast to lift along near the nc coast this afternoon,
strengthening off the mid-atlantic coast late. Strong southerly
winds 20-30 kt develop this afternoon as low pressure tracks
near the waters. A few gusts to gale force will be possible, but
will maintain strong SCA for now. A cold front will push
through the waters late with winds becoming NW 20-30 kt. Seas
will build to 6-9 ft this afternoon and early evening, then
subside to 4-7 ft by early Thursday morning with offshore flow.

Only change to headlines was to add SCA for inland rivers for
wnw CAA surge developing behind the front late today into
tonight.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 4 am Wednesday... SCA conditions expected to continue
through Thursday in strong post frontal NW flow. Winds expected
to diminish some through the first half of the day Thursday but
gradients get pinched again late afternoon and evening as the
mid level trough passes overhead with NW winds surging back to
around 20-25 kt. Seas around 4-7 ft Thursday morning gradually
subsided to 3-5 ft Thursday night. High pressure builds in
Friday into Saturday with NW winds continuing to diminish,
becoming light and variable Saturday as the high migrates across
the region. The high slides offshore late Saturday and Sunday
with winds becoming S to SE around 10-15 kt with building seas.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 710 am wed... Strong W NW winds will develop behind a cold
front late this afternoon and tonight. Water levels remain
elevated across the sounds and given the forecast wind
direction, minor water level rises will be possible for the
soundside outer banks (duck to ocracoke). At this point don't
think it's enough for any significant inundation, but will
continue to monitor.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 7 am edt
Thursday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 2 am edt Friday for
amz131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd
short term... Cqd
long term... Sk
aviation... Sk cqd
marine... Sk cqd
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 52 mi52 min SE 8.9 G 16 73°F 73°F1011.9 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 57 mi52 min SE 7 G 8 73°F 74°F1011.3 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 58 mi52 min ESE 7 G 11 72°F 73°F1012 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC24 mi39 minN 010.00 miLight Rain63°F61°F96%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3N3CalmE5CalmNE3E3SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3
1 day agoSW4CalmS4SW4SW4W6W7W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW4S6S7SW8SW5SW6S4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3S4
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.91.11.110.80.60.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:58 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.50.30.40.61.11.62.12.42.42.21.81.30.90.50.40.50.81.21.722.12

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.