Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belhaven, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:54PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 10:13 AM EST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:20AMMoonset 1:20PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 925 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, then becoming N 20 to 25 kt toward daybreak. Waves 1 ft, then 2 to 3 ft late. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 25 to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belhaven town, NC
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location: 35.54, -76.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 181442 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 942 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift north through the area today. A cold front will cross the area late tonight and early Wednesday morning. An area of low pressure will pass to the south of the area on Thursday and Thursday night with the potential for light wintry accumulations. Cool high pressure will build over the area Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 935 AM Tuesday . Leading edge of rain shield now into central South Carolina at mid-morning. Weak high pressure over eastern NC will limit the movement of showers into our area until late afternoon or evening. Lingering low clouds have limited the rise of temperature thus far, but some thinning in the cloud deck expected this afternoon as warm front drifts north. These thinning clouds should allow temperatures to quickly rise well into the 60s by late afternoon with a few spots perhaps reaching 70 degrees as light north winds, become south this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As of 3 PM Mon . Sharp cold front will approach from the NW thru the evening then begin to cross nrn sections late. Moisture increases ahead of front and with decent lift expect shra to grad become widespread and cont cat pops overnight. Rainfall looks to range between 1/4 to 1/2 inch with most after 06Z. Mild temps much of the night ahead of the front then shld drop late espcly N with lows mid 40s NE to mid 50s S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 415 AM Tuesday . The cold front will cross the region Wednesday morning with precip gradually coming to an end towards evening. Low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast coast along the frontal boundary bringing another shot of rain. Confidence is increasing in some winter-weather threat across eastern NC Thursday night into Friday, although the magnitude remains highly uncertain.

Wednesday . The aforementioned cold front will cross E NC tomorrow morning with Arctic high pressure over the Midwest gradually ridging into the area. Some anafrontal precip will linger into the afternoon complimented by the favorable right- entrance region of an upper level jet. Best chance of rain will be for southern zones but accumulations in the morning should generally hold to a tenth of an inch or less. Colder air looks to lag the main front although CAA will gradually increase during the day. With plenty of low clouds and ongoing precip don't think temps will make it out of the 50s.

Thursday into Friday . Difficult forecast with high uncertainty in regards to winter weather impacts. Confidence is increasing that we will see some snow Thursday night into Friday, although how much remains a sticking point with wide spread in model guidance.

Daylight hours Thursday should be straight-forward enough. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the Great Lakes regions Thursday morning and interact with the now stalled frontal boundary which will spur cyclogenesis off the southeast coast. The shortwave will be moving at a healthy clip and therefore the low itself will quickly follow out to sea. In the meantime precip is expected to develop along the stalled frontal boundary with the highest PoPs for the southern zones.

CAA is expected to commence late Thursday as the low departs to the east, and it appears increasingly likely there will be enough moisture in place for colder air to realize, resulting in a change from rain to snow overnight Thursday night into Friday. Almost all the global models now show some form of accumulating snow for eastern NC during this period although the forecast totals vary quite a bit. The GFS/NAM are by far the most aggressive, bringing snow into the picture by late afternoon resulting in higher accumulations (north of 4" in some spots). The ECMWF delays the onset of snow until evening and has much more muted amounts. Today's forecast leans toward the ECMWF for a couple of reasons:

1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.

2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF and its members.

Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1. For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.

Coastal flooding and tidal concerns remain for this system - see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more details.

Saturday and Sunday . Drier weather takes control as high pressure shifts overhead, with temperatures expected to moderate into the 50s over the weekend. Another system is expected to approach the Carolinas on Monday as an upper trough digs into the central plains. As is typical at this time frame large model differences remain and will only maintain low-end chance PoPs for now.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 615 AM Tue . Widespread IFR/LIFR has developed in stratus and fog. Similar to yesterday would expect IFR to dissipate by 14/15Z with mainly VFR this aftn. As shra grad become numerous tonight ahead of cold front expect sub VFR to again develop with IFR or worse looking likely from about 06Z on.

Long Term /Wed Through Saturday/ . As of 415 AM Tuesday . Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday night as a series of low pressure systems move to the south of the area, resulting in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Some -SN may be briefly observed at sites late Thursday night as low pressure develops offshore. Cool high pressure rebuilds over the area Friday with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 940 AM Tuesday . No real changes to the marine forecast at mid-morning. Winds are currently very light from the N/NW and should veer to southerly this afternoon. Seas are running 3-4 feet, but some very long period swells now occurring over the northern waters. SW winds increase 10 to 20 kts tonight ahead of front then toward daybreak expect strong N surge to begin spreading S over nrn half of the area. Will begin SCA nrn wtrs and sounds twrd daybreak with SCA developing further S shortly after daybreak.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/ . As of 420 AM Tuesday . Winds veer to the north as cold front quickly crosses Wednesday with an impressive surge of 20-30 kts for most waters starting in the morning with a period of gale force gusts possible for the coastal waters. SCA conditions are expected to linger through Saturday with Gales likely late Thursday into Friday with seas building to 8-10 feet by Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 415 AM Tue . NNE gale force winds are looking more likely Thursday night into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts along the NC coast. There is potential for minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, Thursday night and Friday. Minor inundation will be possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EST Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to noon EST Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to noon EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EST Saturday for AMZ150.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . TL/MS AVIATION . RF/MS MARINE . RF/CTC/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 52 mi62 min N 2.9 G 4.1 54°F 56°F1023 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 57 mi62 min N 4.1 G 6 55°F 54°F1023.4 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 58 mi62 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 50°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------CalmCalmNE6CalmCalmCalmNE5NE7CalmCalm
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:36 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:49 PM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.711.11.110.80.60.40.30.20.10.20.40.60.70.80.70.60.40.30.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:28 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:47 PM EST     1.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:48 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.71.91.81.61.30.80.40.20.10.20.50.81.21.41.51.310.60.30-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.