Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asheville, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 508 PM EDT Tuesday: Minor update to take into account the radar trends with the area of rain and thunderstorms moving slowly across Upstate SC and western Piedmont/Foothills of NC. Primary concern is the possibility of another severe thunderstorm or two...mainly across the area from Chester to Monroe and southward.
Limited scope for us. Won't rule out large hail as the main threat. Sfc-based CAPE is less than 500 J/kg, so that will be a limiting factor.

Otherwise...convection diminishes in intensity and coverage with loss of heating, but enough moisture lingers that an isolated shower or two may develop overnight. Patchy dense fog is possible as well. Lows will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

The front stalls just south of the area on Wednesday with low level winds turning more easterly. Expect enough lingering moisture and weak instability for scattered mainly diurnal convection.
Instability and shear look weaker than today, so severe risk is also lower. Moderate QPF is expected, with locally higher amounts in areas directly impacted by thunderstorms. Highs will be around 5 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 211 PM Tuesday: A rather nebulous synoptic pattern continues through the end of the week with broad and weak southwest flow draped from the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
A series of northern stream troughs will lift along the Canadian border while a more notable trough digs along the West Coast on Friday. Otherwise, forcing across the Southern Appalachians will be driven by small perturbations embedded within the weak flow regime which will continue to foster daily development of at least scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms within a moist airmass as a stalled cold front washes out over the area and becomes increasingly diffuse. By Friday, a weak but more defined wave is progged to slide north of the area and may provide a greater focus of precipitation across the mountains. Any thunderstorms during this period will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a couple instances of strong wind gusts. Severe weather is not expected though owing to weak instability with tall/skinny CAPE profiles and weak vertical wind shear. Copious amounts of cloud cover combined with coverage of showers and storms will keep highs in check and likely below 80 for much of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 221 PM Tuesday: Heading into the weekend, a northern stream shortwave trough sliding across southern Ontario will send a surface cold front across New England and the mid-Atlantic. Eventually, guidance is in good agreement that this boundary will sag south into the area as a backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of the boundary, another day of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday. A CAD like pattern will take shape Sunday into early next week as surface high pressure becomes entrenched across Pennsylvania into New York. This would allow for cooler and drier weather with any showers mainly confined to the edges of the cool dome.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: SHRA and isolated TSRA ahead of a slowly moving front will cross the terminals this afternoon. Coverage diminishes quickly by evening with loss of heating. That said, isolated showers could linger through the night. For now, have TEMPOs in for most convectively active period and VCSH for the evening. The guidance is uncertain on the category and type of restrictions overnight. Have gone with MVFR fog and few IFR clouds overnight for all but KAVL where it's IFR for both. Expect MVFR cigs to linger through the morning at KAVL and develop at all but KCLT where chance is lower. More convection expected for the afternoon.
Light and variable winds outside of TSRA with the weak front moving through. NE wind expected Wed morning.

Outlook: Mainly diurnal showers/thunder and associated restrictions will continue each day into the weekend. Patchy fog and/or low stratus may develop overnight into sunrise each morning, especially where heavier downpours occurred the previous afternoon/evening.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.