LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

As northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas upper low departs the region, so too will the break in the heat. Fairly quick warming trend into 100+F highs will spread over the region the first few days of the new week. Some 100 degree highs are likely Sunday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. While the dewpoints in many of the models may be a little too high outside of far southeast Oklahoma, where afternoon dews of 70-74F are forecast, they will still be high enough farther north and west to create heat indices near and greater than 105. This would yield the likelihood of heat advisories next week. The higher heat indices are still expected across the eastern half of our forecast area.

Operational medium range models are still forecasting the upper ridge to retrograde west and north, yielding more in the way of northerly flow aloft for the Southern Plains. The GFS is the most aggressive in bringing troughs around the ridge, with surface reflections of weak frontal boundaries moving into Oklahoma by the end of next week. The ECM is also showing this possibility, but less pronounced. Given the time of year and mean ridge position, along with ensemble output, the greater potential for any substantial cooling and/or rain chances appear to be north and east of our forecast area. Thus, we will ride with the NBM and keep 100s commonplace through Friday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

As northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas upper low departs the region, so too will the break in the heat. Fairly quick warming trend into 100+F highs will spread over the region the first few days of the new week. Some 100 degree highs are likely Sunday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. While the dewpoints in many of the models may be a little too high outside of far southeast Oklahoma, where afternoon dews of 70-74F are forecast, they will still be high enough farther north and west to create heat indices near and greater than 105. This would yield the likelihood of heat advisories next week. The higher heat indices are still expected across the eastern half of our forecast area.

Operational medium range models are still forecasting the upper ridge to retrograde west and north, yielding more in the way of northerly flow aloft for the Southern Plains. The GFS is the most aggressive in bringing troughs around the ridge, with surface reflections of weak frontal boundaries moving into Oklahoma by the end of next week. The ECM is also showing this possibility, but less pronounced. Given the time of year and mean ridge position, along with ensemble output, the greater potential for any substantial cooling and/or rain chances appear to be north and east of our forecast area. Thus, we will ride with the NBM and keep 100s commonplace through Friday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Some IFR and MVFR ceilings have developed in south central Oklahoma, affecting KDUA and spreading toward KLAW. Most of this should lift by mid morning. Winds will be generally light (except for some afternoon gustiness in western Oklahoma) and south to southeasterly.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 89 72 95 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 94 72 98 76 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 94 73 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 93 71 100 75 / 30 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 90 71 96 76 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 89 72 94 75 / 20 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.