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FXUS64 KOUN 072034 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 234 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Gusty winds will continue for the rest of the afternoon. Models show sfc low and associated front moving into parts of the fa tonight.
This will lead to shifting and lighter winds in NW parts of the fa tonight with breezy southerly winds continuing across the rest of the fa. Moisture will continue to spread northward on the breezy southerly winds. Some of the moisture could pool near the front/sfc low where it would overlap with the lighter winds leading to a chance for some patchy fog late tonight into Fri morning. The highest potential for this right now looks to be in north central OK.

Lower dewpoints and lighter winds will lead to colder overnight lows behind the front/sfc low. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s in these areas, especially in NW OK with lows in the 40s/50s expected across the rest of the fa.

Models show upper trough approaching the region Friday with the sfc low and cold front continuing to slowly move across the area, approaching the I-44 corridor Friday afternoon. These features and the speed with which they move across the area will have an impact on the temperature forecast. Highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s are expected across parts of central and southern OK, and north TX whereas areas NW of the sfc features are expected to reach the low 60s.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Models show previously mentioned upper trough continuing to move across the central U.S. Friday night into the weekend with the front continuing to move across the area Friday night. Models continue to trend drier for the fa with any remaining chances of precip being in far SE parts of the fa Friday evening, although even here chances are lower (now 15%) compared to previous forecasts. The low chances are for a few showers/storms in far SE parts of the fa. If storms do develop, there could be enough elevated instability for some hail.

Breezy/gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front on Saturday. These winds could lead to some near elevated fire weather conditions in parts of western OK and north TX Saturday afternoon.
Cooler air will also be moving into the region behind the front which will drop highs back down closer to average this weekend.

Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday with a slight warming trend early next week although temperatures are expected to still remain near average for this time of year.

Next chance for precipitation looks to be middle to late next week when the next upper system could be affecting the region although there are some differences in timing.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Gusty south winds will continue over the area through the afternoon before diminishing this evening and overnight. With a moderately strong low level jet again overnight, many of our eastern and southern sites will experience low level wind shear overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to build in from the south toward tomorrow morning.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 53 68 38 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 45 67 36 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 54 76 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 36 61 31 49 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 48 63 36 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 73 45 61 / 0 0 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 017>020-023>032-040>043.

TX...None.

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