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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Village, OK

June 25, 2024 2:09 PM CDT (19:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 11:06 PM   Moonset 8:57 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Village, OK
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Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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287 FXUS64 KOUN 251743 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024


(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Remnant showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across Kansas may approach northern Oklahoma this morning as they weaken.
Otherwise, hot conditions will continue today (and beyond) with Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of a ~593 dam mid-level ridge. Afternoon highs will once again be in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 deg F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon.

The given synoptic pattern places the Southern Plains within northwest flow aloft. Various convective-allowing and parameterized models indicate ascent from a subtle vort max/PV anomaly embedded in the northwest flow will be sufficient for convection initiation across northern Oklahoma in an uncapped environment late afternoon into the evening. Given the ascent appears subtle, thunderstorms are not a guarantee, but there is at least a modest chance (~40%).

If thunderstorms occur, the primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts given a large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and modest temperature-dewpoint spreads (~40 deg F) in a hot environment. Any thunderstorms should gradually weaken with the loss of daytime heating during the latter half of the evening as they move southward.


(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday: A weak boundary/wind shift will advance southward and will near be located near I-40 during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near this boundary across east central into southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue. Moisture-pooling near and south of this boundary and easterly winds will result in even higher dew points with heat indices at least reaching 110 deg F. Therefore, a Heat Advisory was issued for Wednesday. There is the potential parts of the area, especially across southern Oklahoma, may need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. Winds will be light with the weak boundary in the area, so wet bulb globe temperatures could reach the extreme category.

Thursday-Friday: The mid-level ridge will become elongated in a west to east direction across the southern half of the United States. Northern Oklahoma will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow. Thunderstorms (or at least the remnants of thunderstorms) may skirt near the Kansas/Oklahoma border with most of the convection staying to the north. Otherwise, the heat will continue. Heat Advisories will likely be needed during this period.

Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region, which will advance a cold front southward into the Plains with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty on how far south the cold front and cooler air will advance with probabilistic guidance indicating a 10 to 15 deg F range for high temperatures on Sunday (between the 10th and 90th percentiles). This is the largest temperature spread among probabilistic guidance in the next week. At this time, the most likely scenario is a few degrees cooler Sunday with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s deg F. There is only a 20% chance for high temperatures in the 80s deg F across northern Oklahoma. That probability decreases to 10% in central Oklahoma.

Monday: Any cool down will be brief as temperatures will likely rise early next week with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A thin band of mid-level clouds across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma should continue to thin and move southeast this afternoon. Isolated showers may continue to form, but thunderstorms appear unlikely through mid afternoon.

CAMs favor widely scattered storms develop near northwest Oklahoma (WWR) late this morning. Storms that form are expected to move southeast and will have the potential to produce damaging winds. It`s possible that a storm or two may also impact CSM.

A surface boundary will move into northern Oklahoma early Wednesday. This will produce a wind to at least PNC/WWR.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with the exception of maybe MVFR visibilities in thunderstorms.

Oklahoma City OK 76 101 74 98 / 30 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 103 75 101 / 30 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 104 77 102 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 99 72 101 / 30 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 99 72 96 / 40 10 10 10 Durant OK 79 99 75 99 / 20 20 10 0

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

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Oklahoma City, OK,

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