Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 7:13 PM   Moonset 5:30 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 231952 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 252 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

At least a low chance for isolated thunderstorms will continue in western north Texas along a weak cold that is expected to eventually stall near the Red River overnight. Sufficient shear and instability will support the chance for a few severe wind gusts and large hail with any of the stronger storms that form.
Isentropic ascent along and north of the aforementioned boundary will help foster showers and additional thunderstorm chances for most of Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Elevated instability during the morning and early afternoon hours will be sufficient for any stronger updraft to produce large hail, potentially up to golf balls.

Bunker

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday Night: Isentropic ascent will strengthen as the low- level jet increases after sunset. The warm front will lift further to the north and thunderstorm chances will continue through the night with a low chance for severe hail.

Thursday into Friday: With the aforementioned warm front lifting slowly to the north, additional rain and thunderstorm chances will continue through Thursday morning. There is remaining uncertainty with how far north the warm front will lift, primarily due to forecast convection from the day prior, and if that will leave any residual outflow boundaries. If the warm front remains near the Red River, there will remain continued chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across central and north central Oklahoma.

The main upper level support will move through the southern Plains Thursday afternoon, providing sufficient large scale ascent over our area. A dryline is forecast to move into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon. All ingredients align for any initial cells that develop along the dryline to produce severe weather, potentially significant severe with all hazards possible. As the synoptic scale lift shifts towards the northeast overnight Thursday, the dryline/Pacific front will push eastward. Additional thunderstorms may form along the boundary overnight into Friday morning. With sufficient shear, instability and a strengthening low- level jet, severe weather remains possible with all hazards in play. Storms should continue an eastern push throughout the morning and should be out of the area by Friday late afternoon.

Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for significant severe weather across the entire area. Moisture return ahead of another advancing mid-level wave will move in quickly. A dryline will once again sharpen across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles/state line as a surface low deepens in southwest Kansas. There are still model uncertainties with this system, however. Timing of the mid-level trough will greatly impact when the large scale ascent overspreads our area. A slower trough ejection and morning convection will limit severe potential, but if there is no morning convection and the timing of the wave coincides with peak heating, significant severe weather will be expected. Lastly, depending on how many rounds of rainfall we get throughout the week, will dictate the flooding potential by Saturday.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move out of the area with weaker flow aloft. Higher heights will move in by early next week, with a warm up into the 80s by Tuesday.

Bunker



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. Low VFR clouds will be possible in KDUA. Breezy southerly winds will continue overnight.
Winds will shift towards the N and NE as a cold front moves across portions of the area Tuesday. Some storms could develop late Tuesday afternoon/evening but chances too low for mention in TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 56 68 60 77 / 20 60 70 60 Hobart OK 56 71 59 80 / 20 30 50 40 Wichita Falls TX 60 78 65 81 / 20 20 30 20 Gage OK 48 68 52 82 / 20 30 40 40 Ponca City OK 52 71 56 73 / 20 50 80 90 Durant OK 62 77 65 79 / 10 30 40 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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