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FXUS64 KOUN 302324 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 524 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Tonight: Lingering precipitation areas (showers and a few thunderstorms) will continue shifting north and east with time.
Early afternoon water vapor captures a well defined upper wave/vort max advancing across west Texas. This has aided in the development of widely scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) in an arc from western-north Texas into central and southeast Oklahoma.
Activity is expected to continue drifting further north and east with time this evening.

There remains a low (20-30%) chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms through this evening, generally south of the I-40 corridor. Objective mesoanalysis/short-range guidance depicts sufficient (elevated) instability (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) and deep- layer wind shear such that a few organized storms (with a large hail threat) may emerge across the aforementioned area. A more focused area of severe potential may (~10-15%) develop beneath/near the upper low (i.e. coldest temperatures aloft/steepest lapse rates)
from western-north Texas into far southern Oklahoma towards sunset. However, signal for development in this regime is highly uncertain, with only one or two hi-res guidance members showing organized/sustained storm potential here.

Finally, potential for (mixed) wintry precipitation types across far northwestern Oklahoma continues to appear quite limited in space/time/impact. The axis of a heavier precipitation band, along the periphery of an evolving/deepening surface low, looks to remain centered to the northwest of the forecast area through early Friday. Additionally, temperature observations behind a weak surface front remain in the low to the mid-40s across far northwest Oklahoma. While column cooling may be enough for a few flakes/ice pellets to mix in with rain, surface impacts are expected to remain very limited, confined to grassy/elevated surfaces and/or brief reductions in visibility, and may only be noted across a small sliver of the area (Harper County).

Friday: Dry weather returns along with the coldest day of the upcoming 7-day period. A post-frontal airmass will settle into portions of northern Oklahoma by early Friday. Temperatures are expected to run from the 40s here to low-60s across the Red River Valley. Despite broad troughing across the Western U.S., synoptic descent should promote dry surface weather during the day.

Ungar

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Pleasant weather, with perhaps an extended period of above average temperatures, is forecast from the weekend into the following work week. Despite (aforementioned) broad western troughing to at the beginning of the period, it appears as though main upper impulses within the flow will remain north of the forecast area. Combined with limited near-surface moisture, dry surface weather is expected. Temperatures, especially for southern Oklahoma/north Texas, may run +5-15 degrees (in the low to mid-60s) for much of the period.

Ungar

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase over southwestern and central OK over the next several hours. Some small hail can't be ruled out, but confidence of this occurring over any one terminal is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. A wind shift from the west and northwest behind a cold front and dryline will take place throughout the forecast period, mainly after 05Z. IFR to LIFR cigs and visbys will continue through at least 05Z for most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 39 50 35 59 / 40 0 0 0 Hobart OK 34 53 33 61 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 57 40 68 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 27 46 27 49 / 60 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 43 30 52 / 90 0 0 0 Durant OK 44 59 39 67 / 40 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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