Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX
July 27, 2024 7:06 AM CDT (12:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 11:52 PM Moonset 12:56 PM |
FXUS64 KAMA 271029 AAA AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Thunderstorms have developed in a zone of 60 to 65 degree surface dew points and under a jet aloft between a low over northeast Oklahoma and a high over the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The storms are in a decent area of shear as the south-southeast surface winds winds turn to the north aloft. The storms may continue off and on through the morning, then there may be a lull early this afternoon before more thunderstorms develop in about the same spot (from Guymon to Amarillo on eastward) later this afternoon as a surface trough moves into the central Panhandles and provides a low level focus. Thunderstorms are then expected to exit the Panhandles to the east by late this evening.
On Sunday, the flow aloft becomes a little more northwesterly as the upper high moves eastward across southern New Mexico. Some storms could move this way from the Rockies late in the afternoon into the evening, especially if there is a short wave associated with the activity, which some models do indicate. At this point, confidence is not high enough to add showers and thunderstorms to the northwest Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
The upper level high shifts off to the southeast of us to near the DFW area for Monday through Wednesday. There are a few upper level disturbances that make a dent in the upper level ridge across the northwest CWA each one of these days. The NBM seems to be on the warm side for high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. We are not going to adjust the NBM for now. But if subtropical moisture gets brought up on the southwest flow aloft across the Panhandles, then we could see some more cloud cover and this may take the edge off of the heat. Time will tell.
It looks like shower and thunderstorm chances could move back into the region as early as Wednesday night as the flow aloft changes from southwesterly to northwesterly again. The better chance of showers and thunderstorms may come in Thursday and Friday as the northwest flow gets stronger and mountain convection has a better chance at moving farther southeastward.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Thunderstorms are expected to remain east and west of the TAF sites through tonight. The best chance of a thunderstorm near a TAF site would be at AMA, but confidence is not high enough to add a thunderstorm there at this time. Southerly winds will pick up to around 15 knots with higher gusts at all TAF sites by late morning. Winds will then only decrease a little with the setting sun.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 94 70 100 73 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 94 69 101 74 / 20 30 0 10 Boise City OK 93 67 99 66 / 10 20 10 10 Borger TX 100 72 104 77 / 20 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 96 71 103 74 / 10 10 0 10 Canyon TX 93 68 98 71 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 94 68 98 72 / 20 30 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 66 101 68 / 10 10 10 0 Guymon OK 95 68 101 71 / 20 10 10 10 Hereford TX 94 68 100 71 / 10 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 94 70 101 74 / 20 30 0 0 Pampa TX 93 69 99 73 / 20 20 0 0 Shamrock TX 95 68 99 73 / 20 30 0 0 Wellington TX 96 69 101 74 / 20 30 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 529 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Thunderstorms have developed in a zone of 60 to 65 degree surface dew points and under a jet aloft between a low over northeast Oklahoma and a high over the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The storms are in a decent area of shear as the south-southeast surface winds winds turn to the north aloft. The storms may continue off and on through the morning, then there may be a lull early this afternoon before more thunderstorms develop in about the same spot (from Guymon to Amarillo on eastward) later this afternoon as a surface trough moves into the central Panhandles and provides a low level focus. Thunderstorms are then expected to exit the Panhandles to the east by late this evening.
On Sunday, the flow aloft becomes a little more northwesterly as the upper high moves eastward across southern New Mexico. Some storms could move this way from the Rockies late in the afternoon into the evening, especially if there is a short wave associated with the activity, which some models do indicate. At this point, confidence is not high enough to add showers and thunderstorms to the northwest Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
The upper level high shifts off to the southeast of us to near the DFW area for Monday through Wednesday. There are a few upper level disturbances that make a dent in the upper level ridge across the northwest CWA each one of these days. The NBM seems to be on the warm side for high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. We are not going to adjust the NBM for now. But if subtropical moisture gets brought up on the southwest flow aloft across the Panhandles, then we could see some more cloud cover and this may take the edge off of the heat. Time will tell.
It looks like shower and thunderstorm chances could move back into the region as early as Wednesday night as the flow aloft changes from southwesterly to northwesterly again. The better chance of showers and thunderstorms may come in Thursday and Friday as the northwest flow gets stronger and mountain convection has a better chance at moving farther southeastward.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Thunderstorms are expected to remain east and west of the TAF sites through tonight. The best chance of a thunderstorm near a TAF site would be at AMA, but confidence is not high enough to add a thunderstorm there at this time. Southerly winds will pick up to around 15 knots with higher gusts at all TAF sites by late morning. Winds will then only decrease a little with the setting sun.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 94 70 100 73 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 94 69 101 74 / 20 30 0 10 Boise City OK 93 67 99 66 / 10 20 10 10 Borger TX 100 72 104 77 / 20 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 96 71 103 74 / 10 10 0 10 Canyon TX 93 68 98 71 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 94 68 98 72 / 20 30 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 66 101 68 / 10 10 10 0 Guymon OK 95 68 101 71 / 20 10 10 10 Hereford TX 94 68 100 71 / 10 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 94 70 101 74 / 20 30 0 0 Pampa TX 93 69 99 73 / 20 20 0 0 Shamrock TX 95 68 99 73 / 20 30 0 0 Wellington TX 96 69 101 74 / 20 30 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDUX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDUX
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDUX
Wind History graph: DUX
(wind in knots)
Amarillo, TX,
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