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FXUS64 KAMA 041932 AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 132 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Upper level trough exiting to the east with northwest flow dominating from early to mid week. There will be a little disturbance embedded in the northwest flow will kick a weak cold front through tonight. Not much wind behind the front nor will we see much of temperature impacts tomorrow morning or afternoon.
Morning lows still expected to be in the 20s to lower 30s and afternoon highs on Tuesday around 60. Given the clear skies tonight and lighter winds by the morning, early morning frost looks favorable.

As we move into Wednesday highs will start to climb into the mid 60s to near 70. As the ridge centers over central plains. There's a little wave progged to approach from the western flank of the ridge, and that will transition to a more zonal flow with some breezy winds and drier conditions. This may trigger some elevated Fire Weather concerns.

Weber

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Wednesday through Thursday is shaping up to be a period of dry weather for the panhandles as a broad ridge sits across the Great Plains. A weak trough in the flow looks to cross the southern plains late on Wednesday and early Thursday. This is expected to cause robust SW winds across the panhandles with gusts currently favored in the 30s mph range. Temperatures under this ridge will be rising with highs in the 60s Wednesday and then 70s by Thursday.

Friday will see a pattern shift as the ridge departs and a trough moves into the region. This trough will drag a cold front across the panhandles most likely during the late afternoon to evening hours. The front itself is looking to be a dry front with not much in the way of precipitation. However following it passage some moisture does look to enter the panhandles which can lead to showers. Since these will occur in the cold air behind the front and going into the overnight hours snowfall may occur. That being said the amount of moisture currently is trending low so accumulations are expected to minimal. This can change if additional moisture does manage to sneak it way across the panhandles by the odds are low.

Saturday and Sunday are favoring drier conditions as the small amount of moisture moves out of the panhandles with a <10% chance of further showers activity. The colder air settling across the panhandles will cause the temperatures to fall roughly 15 to 20 degrees with highs on Saturday expected to be mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with gusty south southwest winds 20-25kts through about 20z shifting northerly about 10-15kts thereafter. No cig issues, as skies will gradually clear.

Weber

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 29 59 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 27 59 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 25 60 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 29 61 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 27 59 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 29 60 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 35 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 24 58 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 26 61 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 29 61 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 29 59 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 30 58 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 32 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 34 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.

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