Boys Ranch, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX

June 19, 2024 9:46 PM CDT (02:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 6:17 PM   Moonset 3:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boys Ranch, TX
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Area Discussion for - Amarillo, TX
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FXUS64 KAMA 192320 AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The widespread rainfall seen this morning has significantly lessened in coverage as the outflow boundary has pushed out of the CWA Thunderstorms may re-develop later this afternoon in New Mexico and move into the western Panhandles if there is enough instability. It's hard to get a grasp on the extent of the potential convection, if it happens at all, given that the models have not handled convection well over the past 18 hours or so.
But some lobes of vorticity may move into the northwestern combined Panhandles later this afternoon and into the evening which may provide enough forcing to produce some thunderstorms in the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles . Will have to wait and see what happens with the ongoing showers and convection and which part of the area stays dry, and if there are any areas that can destabilize in time for the next potential round later in the day. If any thunderstorm can tap into an unstable environment, the primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail as well as heavy rainfall that could cause flooding issues.
This would be most favored in the far western combined Panhandles.
Again, overall confidence is low regarding the potential for additional thunderstorm development, and even lower for any potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later.

Tonight should be dry, but southeasterly surface winds and southerly 850mb winds should help continue to pump in moisture related to Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico. There may be some weak forcing that works into the western TX Panhandle Thursday afternoon. If thunderstorms can develop, they should remain well- behaved given very weak instability but heavy rain will certainly be possible.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The extended will be a gradual transition starting with the south to southwest flow as we remain west of an strong high pressure setup over the Ohio River Valley, and by the end of the extended, we'll be just east of a new ridge of high pressure that will be set up over the Four Corners. Overall the best chances for rain look to be on Sunday evening and again on Tuesday evening, but the chance of rain is the just about every day. The best chances for little to no precipitation looks to be Saturday and Monday.

Overall, High pressure to the east will quickly break down as a weak upper trough moves across the northern CONUS. This will take us from south to southwest flow on Friday to a more zonal flow Saturday, and this is why Saturday looks less favorable for showers or storms, but there's always a chance that we see some subtle shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow and we get a few storms to develop. As we move into Sunday and early next week the upper trough will begin to amplify over the Great Lakes Region, which will help build a Four Corners ridge over the western COUNS. As a result we'll transition to northwest flow and that would bring a better chance of showers and storms on Sunday.

Monday, the upper trough will push off to the east coast and that will allow for the ridge to strengthen, which in turn will weaken the northwest flow regime over our area. Therefore, Monday may not be as favorable for showers or storms, but as noted before, there's always a possibility for some embedded waves to trigger a storm or two. By Tuesday a new trough will enter the Great Lakes Region and the ridge will shift a bit more west allowing for a slightly better northwest flow component, but a more pronounced shortwave looks to provide a better chance of scattered to possibly widespread storms across the area.

Overall, temperatures will mid 90s to lower 100s for the extended.
The exception would be on Friday as we'll be in the upper 80s. Main concern we need to watch will be if the NBM dewpoints are too low.
Typically, dewpoints right around 60 on these hot days would be on the high side, but given all this recent moisture, we need to consider the possibility that if our dewpoints hold in the 60s or higher then we could be looking at some heat index's that could approach the 100-110 range. Current forecast for Palo Duro Canyon already is over 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday (without a heat index component), and it's very close to 100 on Sunday. So would not be surprised to see temperatures and/or heat index's in the Palo Duro Canyon area to hit the 105 (Heat Advisory) mark on Monday and Tuesday, and maybe even on Sunday.

Weber

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cumulus is still present across the panhandles this evening which can still cause a few isolated light rain showers. The northern stations of KGUY and KDHT have the higher chance of seeing further showers this evening with KAMA having a lesser chance. However the chances are not high enough at KDHT and KAMA to carry in the TAFs at this time. Cloud decks should generally stay VFR but there is a very low chance that a low level cloud deck may form from the recycled rainfall moisture. If this occurs then it is not out of the realm for IFR decks to form mainly and KGUY. This chance of this is no where near certain enough to reflect in the TAF just know that it is possible. Winds are gusty this evening but will weaken for the overnight hours. The winds will then become gusty again during the late morning to early afternoon hours for all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 66 83 66 87 / 20 10 20 10 Beaver OK 65 87 67 90 / 20 0 0 0 Boise City OK 62 84 62 83 / 50 20 10 10 Borger TX 68 89 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 66 86 67 87 / 40 20 20 10 Canyon TX 64 81 66 85 / 20 20 20 10 Clarendon TX 64 81 67 86 / 10 20 10 0 Dalhart TX 63 85 62 84 / 50 20 20 20 Guymon OK 64 86 64 87 / 40 10 10 0 Hereford TX 65 83 66 87 / 20 20 30 10 Lipscomb TX 67 87 69 90 / 10 0 10 0 Pampa TX 65 85 68 88 / 10 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 67 85 69 90 / 10 10 10 0 Wellington TX 67 85 70 90 / 10 10 10 0

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDUX MOORE COUNTY,TX 20 sm11 minSE 1010 smClear73°F63°F69%30.21
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Amarillo, TX,




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