Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX
May 11, 2024 6:34 AM CDT (11:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 8:27 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
FXUS64 KAMA 111128 AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 628 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Some showers will try to make their way into the TX Panhandle from northeastern NM, but not expecting them to make it much further past a line drawn north to south from Dalhart. Additional showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms are favored to develop in western TX/northeastern NM and move northeastward later this morning through the afternoon through much of the CWA Given expected widespread cloud coverage and rain through the day, have lowered highs across much of the area; some locations in the far western Panhandles may not reach 60 degrees today. Much of the first round of showers and thunderstorms will move out of the Panhandles in the evening. CAMs diverge regarding how widespread any shower/thunderstorm activity will be tonight (Saturday night), likely owing to differing strength/location of subtle forcing mechanisms. But there are some decent geopotential height falls through the night which suggests enough forcing should be in place for a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms through the night. There are hints that mid-level lapse rates will steepen overnight as the upper-level trough crawls toward the Panhandles, thus some small hail would be possible with stronger updrafts. This round of showers and thunderstorms may continue into a portion of the morning in the southeastern Panhandles.
A surface low is favored to develop during the day Sunday in eastern NM which should introduce southwesterly to westerly winds in the southwestern TX Panhandle and southeasterly to easterly winds in the eastern combined Panhandles which will set up a surface trough somewhere in the area by afternoon. NAM is farthest west with the surface trough (west of Amarillo) while GFS is farthest east (in the vicinity of Pampa), and ECMWF is just slightly further west of GFS.
Given that showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning in the eastern TX Panhandle, there is naturally some concern that clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. If this happens, there may be capping concerns that could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in that area. The better chance for thunderstorms that may be strong to severe would be in the areas that are less rainy/cloudy throughout the day which seems to be in the northern combined Panhandles at this time, but will certainly have to monitor the eastern Panhandles as that appears to be where conditions will be most favorable.
The surface low will move eastward Sunday night which will help bring a weak cold front through the Panhandles. Some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may continue in the eastern Panhandles Sunday night.
Vanden Bosch
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Based off the latest 11/00Z model and numerical updates, a low amplitude sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather pattern throughout the long term forecast period. With that said, we will start off with leftover showers and storms on MOnday across the eastern Panhandles as the main system departs to the east.
A break in the activity under a larger area of subsidence as a H500 ridge moves into the region on Tuesday and most of Wednesday.
A broad H500 trough should traverse across the Four Corners Region Wednesday night through Thursday. Out ahead of the main trough Wednesday afternoon and evening, sufficient instability, shear, and lift from a cold front moving through, should all be present for a larger coverage for the potential of thunderstorms, where some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Will get more details of elements and timing as we get closer to the middle of next week. Dry conditions then return to end the work week as the main H500 trough quickly exits the southern High Plains Thursday night. High temperatures should remain above average for the majority of the forecast period, with the exception on Thursday in the wake of the cold front where temperatures will be below average.
Meccariello
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR conditions are present and should continue through the day.
MVFR ceilings move in this evening, possibly lowering to IFR later in the overnight period but confidence precludes mentions at this time. Otherwise, rounds of showers are favored through much of the period. Thunderstorms are possible at each site tonight, but low confidence in thunderstorms occurring and the timing of thunderstorms precludes mentions at this time. Amendments may be needed.
Vanden Bosch
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 67 53 75 48 / 50 80 80 20 Beaver OK 76 53 73 50 / 30 70 90 60 Boise City OK 64 46 71 44 / 80 70 80 20 Borger TX 73 55 78 50 / 40 80 90 30 Boys Ranch TX 67 52 78 47 / 60 80 60 20 Canyon TX 66 53 76 48 / 60 80 70 20 Clarendon TX 69 54 70 53 / 40 70 90 40 Dalhart TX 63 48 74 44 / 80 80 70 10 Guymon OK 71 50 74 46 / 60 80 90 40 Hereford TX 64 53 78 48 / 70 80 50 10 Lipscomb TX 76 54 71 51 / 20 80 90 70 Pampa TX 71 53 72 50 / 30 70 90 40 Shamrock TX 73 54 68 53 / 30 70 90 60 Wellington TX 73 54 69 54 / 30 60 90 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 628 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Some showers will try to make their way into the TX Panhandle from northeastern NM, but not expecting them to make it much further past a line drawn north to south from Dalhart. Additional showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms are favored to develop in western TX/northeastern NM and move northeastward later this morning through the afternoon through much of the CWA Given expected widespread cloud coverage and rain through the day, have lowered highs across much of the area; some locations in the far western Panhandles may not reach 60 degrees today. Much of the first round of showers and thunderstorms will move out of the Panhandles in the evening. CAMs diverge regarding how widespread any shower/thunderstorm activity will be tonight (Saturday night), likely owing to differing strength/location of subtle forcing mechanisms. But there are some decent geopotential height falls through the night which suggests enough forcing should be in place for a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms through the night. There are hints that mid-level lapse rates will steepen overnight as the upper-level trough crawls toward the Panhandles, thus some small hail would be possible with stronger updrafts. This round of showers and thunderstorms may continue into a portion of the morning in the southeastern Panhandles.
A surface low is favored to develop during the day Sunday in eastern NM which should introduce southwesterly to westerly winds in the southwestern TX Panhandle and southeasterly to easterly winds in the eastern combined Panhandles which will set up a surface trough somewhere in the area by afternoon. NAM is farthest west with the surface trough (west of Amarillo) while GFS is farthest east (in the vicinity of Pampa), and ECMWF is just slightly further west of GFS.
Given that showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning in the eastern TX Panhandle, there is naturally some concern that clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. If this happens, there may be capping concerns that could inhibit the development of thunderstorms in that area. The better chance for thunderstorms that may be strong to severe would be in the areas that are less rainy/cloudy throughout the day which seems to be in the northern combined Panhandles at this time, but will certainly have to monitor the eastern Panhandles as that appears to be where conditions will be most favorable.
The surface low will move eastward Sunday night which will help bring a weak cold front through the Panhandles. Some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may continue in the eastern Panhandles Sunday night.
Vanden Bosch
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Based off the latest 11/00Z model and numerical updates, a low amplitude sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather pattern throughout the long term forecast period. With that said, we will start off with leftover showers and storms on MOnday across the eastern Panhandles as the main system departs to the east.
A break in the activity under a larger area of subsidence as a H500 ridge moves into the region on Tuesday and most of Wednesday.
A broad H500 trough should traverse across the Four Corners Region Wednesday night through Thursday. Out ahead of the main trough Wednesday afternoon and evening, sufficient instability, shear, and lift from a cold front moving through, should all be present for a larger coverage for the potential of thunderstorms, where some thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Will get more details of elements and timing as we get closer to the middle of next week. Dry conditions then return to end the work week as the main H500 trough quickly exits the southern High Plains Thursday night. High temperatures should remain above average for the majority of the forecast period, with the exception on Thursday in the wake of the cold front where temperatures will be below average.
Meccariello
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR conditions are present and should continue through the day.
MVFR ceilings move in this evening, possibly lowering to IFR later in the overnight period but confidence precludes mentions at this time. Otherwise, rounds of showers are favored through much of the period. Thunderstorms are possible at each site tonight, but low confidence in thunderstorms occurring and the timing of thunderstorms precludes mentions at this time. Amendments may be needed.
Vanden Bosch
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 67 53 75 48 / 50 80 80 20 Beaver OK 76 53 73 50 / 30 70 90 60 Boise City OK 64 46 71 44 / 80 70 80 20 Borger TX 73 55 78 50 / 40 80 90 30 Boys Ranch TX 67 52 78 47 / 60 80 60 20 Canyon TX 66 53 76 48 / 60 80 70 20 Clarendon TX 69 54 70 53 / 40 70 90 40 Dalhart TX 63 48 74 44 / 80 80 70 10 Guymon OK 71 50 74 46 / 60 80 90 40 Hereford TX 64 53 78 48 / 70 80 50 10 Lipscomb TX 76 54 71 51 / 20 80 90 70 Pampa TX 71 53 72 50 / 30 70 90 40 Shamrock TX 73 54 68 53 / 30 70 90 60 Wellington TX 73 54 69 54 / 30 60 90 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDUX MOORE COUNTY,TX | 20 sm | 19 min | W 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 41°F | 58% | 30.15 |
Amarillo, TX,
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