Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 130 PM Friday...

1) Isolated shower or two possible this afternoon into this evening.
An infrequent lightning strike or two would be the only hazard.

2) Areas of fog and very low overcast will develop/advect inland and across the ern and cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend.

3) Unsettled weather this weekend and again late in the week.

4) Very warm with near record-breaking temperatures persisting through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION
As of 130 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Isolated shower or two possible this afternoon into this evening.
An infrequent lightning strike or two would be the only hazard.

Satellite imagery shows pockets of blossoming cumulus across the Piedmont. These localized areas are largely being driven by a pair of remnant/weakening MCV's from prior upstream convection over southern GA and southeastern AL yesterday. Enhanced low-level moisture and unseasonably warm temperatures are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across NC. Point soundings immediately ahead of these features show a cooling/moistening withing the 800-700mb layer which effectively erodes to lowest of two inversions. This should support the development of some shallow and short-lived showers this afternoon. Background weak synoptic descent, associated with the proximity of the sub-tropical ridge off the Southeast coast, and relatively dry air aloft will make sustained convection difficult to achieve. This should limit storm depth and reduce mixed phase production and charge separation for lightning production, but a lightning strike or two can't be ruled out.

Cooling of the boundary layer after sunset will cease the production of surface-based convection, but may allow for isolated pockets of elevated convection as RAP soundings highlighting 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE throughout the night and into Sat morning. Best chances may be across the western Piedmont, where localized enhancement from any upstream MCVs would be possible, as well as atop a backdoor front nosing into the northern Coastal Plain. Hazardous weather is not expected with these showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Areas of fog and very low overcast will develop/advect inland and across the ern and cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend.

Onshore flow, around a persistent sub-tropical high near Bermuda, will direct unseasonably rich low-level moisture into the South Atlantic states and in a pattern that will favor the inland development/advection of fog and low overcast into srn through ern NC each morning. While locally dense fog may result, particularly across the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain, steady sswly low-level flow should mitigate the threat of widespread and/or persistent dense fog.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Unsettled weather this weekend and again late in the week.

Broad southwesterly flow aloft will prevail across much of the Southeast this weekend, with a series embedded weak waves within the flow. The first of which is expected to reach western NC during the day on Saturday. While some BL instability will be present across the area, very weak BL convergence should preclude much in the way of organized showers, let alone storms Saturday afternoon. The best chances (albeit low) should be across the western Piedmont in closest proximity to the passing shortwave. Whatever convection develops near the mountains should gradually dissipate as it moves eastward and PoPs will show a marked gradient of 30-40 PoPs in the west to near 0 in the east. This overall theme is mirrored to a large extent by the 06.00Z and 06.12Z runs of the HRRR.

Looking ahead to Sunday, another wave and its attendant surface cold front should make it across the mountains into central NC, entering an environment characterized by MLCAPEs around 500 J/KG and bulk shear around 30-40 kts. Naturally the presence of the front should be enough to focus shower and storm development with peak coverage forecast from 18Z Sunday into the early evening hours. This will be the period showing the highest PoPs ranging from 70-80 percent area- wide. Given continued southwesterly flow aloft, the front will be slow moving and showers could easily linger into the late evening/overnight hours. A few of the stronger showers/storms could be capable of producing damaging winds although at this point widespread severe weather isn't anticipated as the front moves through the area.

While the pattern will quiet down a bit Monday through Wednesday, an upper low over the Desert Southwest will eject into the southern Plains and bring a renewed opportunity for unsettled weather late in the week. Meanwhile longwave troughing over eastern Canada will drop a surface front through the Southeastern US during this time period.
The timing of how these two features interact is the greatest source of uncertainty in today's 00Z LREF cluster analysis and confidence in timing the greatest precip chances remains low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 4...
Very warm with near record-breaking temperatures persisting through at least midweek.

An anomalous mid- to upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. through early next week will support warm southwesterly flow across the region. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s today through Wednesday, running 15–20 degrees above normal, while overnight lows remain 20–25 degrees above normal. The warmest days appear to be today and Wednesday, when highs will reach the low 80s across much of the area.

By mid to late week, a frontal boundary moving across the region will bring cooler air. Highs will fall back to the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday, then mid 50s to low 60s by Friday, returning temperatures to near or slightly below normal.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 125 PM Friday...

Low-VFR cumulus has developed over a large portion of central NC with highly localized pockets of showers over western NC and central SC. An isolated shower appears unlikely, but can't be ruled out this afternoon into the evening hours. A complicated forecast is expected tonight as a backdoor cold front, coastal very low overcast advecting inland and pockets of radiation fog will all play a role to some degree tonight. 18z TAFs are a middle-of-the-road and slightly optimistic approach based on latest guidance. Confidence is highest in sub-VFR conditions at FAY and RWI where persistence forecast continues. Continued moisture advection into the region will make a period of MVFR/IFR cigs possible at INT, GSO, and RDU as diurnal mixing begins after sunrise Sat morning.

Outlook: Areas of fog and/or stratus will likely develop over the ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend, with relative highest probability of occurrence at FAY and RWI and with greatest areal coverage into portions of the Piedmont on Sat. Additionally, a weakening frontal system will settle into cntl NC, with an associated likely probability of convection and brief flight restrictions, on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KGSO: 78/2022 KRDU: 82/1967 KFAY: 86/1918 March 7: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 85/1974 KFAY: 84/1961 March 8: KGSO: 83/2000 KRDU: 87/1974 KFAY: 87/1974 March 9: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 84/2009 KFAY: 87/1974 March 10: KGSO: 78/2016 KRDU: 81/1974 KFAY: 84/1974 March 11: KGSO: 86/1967 KRDU: 85/1925 KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6: KGSO: 64/1967 KRDU: 64/1967 KFAY: 65/1961 March 7: KGSO: 63/1956 KRDU: 64/1956 KFAY: 65/1961 March 8: KGSO: 57/1946 KRDU: 60/1946 KFAY: 63/1961 March 9: KGSO: 61/1921 KRDU: 61/1921 KFAY: 62/1980 March 10: KGSO: 58/2016 KRDU: 57/2020 KFAY: 65/1964 March 11: KGSO: 62/2016 KRDU: 63/2016 KFAY: 63/2016

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.