Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 904 PM Wednesday...

The convection that was located over the central and southern Coastal Plain and parts of Johnston County has largely dissipated in the last hour or so. Much of this convection developed with a westward moving outflow boundary from storms closer to the NC coast.
The surface front, meanwhile, is loosely defined, but mainly south of central NC. It should continue to progress south and west, stalling to our southwest overnight. Much of the convection over the Coastal Plain has stabilized the atmosphere there. Based on some guidance but more heavily relying on observational trends, still think isolated showers or storms will develop into the late evening, mainly for areas over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and points southwest of the Triangle. There are signs of this already with satellite showing clouds near 6 kft to the southwest of Raleigh.
This region has not been worked over from earlier convection and may feed on some 500 to 1000 J/kg of instability, along with forcing from the westward moving outflow. Additional isolated convection may develop overnight over the western/southern Piedmont due to southeasterly pooling of moisture and upslope flow with the 925-850 mb flow southeasterly. Otherwise, expect fairy dry conditions overnight. The pooling of moisture will favor a good chance of low stratus developing over the western Piedmont and Triad, though fog appears minimal thus far with low temperatures tempered by clouds in the upper 50s to low 60s in this area. Lows should be cooler and more seasonal in our northeast zones, where clouds will be less prevalent, with upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

* Seasonably mild with showers and isolated storms possible during the afternoon and early evening.

Under weakly southwesterly and subtly perturbed flow aloft, surface high pressure will slowly shift offshore while an area of low pressure tracks from the Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes region by Fri night. A quasi-stationary front will buckle northward across western NC Thurs with a warm sector characterized by dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Diurnal heating should result in 500-1000 SBCAPE to develop in the western Sandhills and western Piedmont where some showers/storms will be possible. Weak shear (<20kts) will result in mostly pulse storm mode and little storm organization is expected. Another area of showers will be possible Thurs night as a convectively enhanced vortmax, currently over the Lower MS Valley, will shift into western Piedmont of NC and southern Appalachians.
There is some weak elevated instability so some isolated storms can't be ruled out. Highs mid 70s to low 80s. Lows in the low 50s to low 60s.

The surface front will become more washed out Fri as the surface high slips farther offshore and uniformly southerly flow returns to the area. Continued, warm, moist airmass in place should result in another day of diurnally driven showers/storms. Highs mid 70s to low 80s. Lows low/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

-Shower and storms possible Saturday, then dry through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be above-normal Saturday with a brief cool down for Sunday and Monday then above normal again for mid to late week.

A cold front will be moving into the Mid-Atlantic region early Saturday bringing increased rain chances through Saturday evening.
The best chance for storms will be in the afternoon and evening hours. Some model data is suggesting a low end threat for isolated severe storms to develop as CAPE values range from 600-1200 J/kg as the front swings across the region. While we are not in any sort of SPC outlook for severe weather currently, I would expect at least a marginal risk for severe weather over portions of the area on Saturday. As the frontal boundary exits the region late Saturday night early Sunday, dry surface high will slowly move into the region with cooler temperatures and refreshing dew points in the 40s. Temperatures will be in the 70s on Sunday and Monday and 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the 7-day forecast with WAA across the region ahead of the next frontal system. Expect temps in the mid to upper 80s with a few warmer spots possibly hitting 90 degrees. Depending on the timing of the front, afternoon showers could be possible Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 735 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions should dominate central NC through this evening. IFR to locally LIFR CIGS are expected to develop between 06z and 09z and persist through around 12z-14z/Thursday. The NE part of the region including KRWI may not see the low stratus as they are under higher pressure. A return to VFR conditions should occur from KFAY to KRDU eastward late morning Thursday. CIGS in the Triad should slowly lift to MVFR. However, there is an increased chance of showers in the KINT and possibly KGSO areas mid to late day Thursday.

Looking beyond 00z/Friday: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to develop once again Thursday night after 04z, lasting through Fri morning, with the highest chance at INT/GSO, where showers are possible, and a lower chance at RDU/FAY. Scattered showers and storms may occur Friday afternoon through Saturday, ahead of and along a cold front that will cross central NC Sat. Dry/VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under high pressure.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.