NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS62 KRAH 281904 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 204 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold high pressure will build from the central and southern United States eastward over the Carolinas and Southeast states through Wednesday. High pressure will move offshore Thursday, ahead of a frontal system approaching the region Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1050 AM Tuesday...

For the near term update...with the strong CAA taking place in the wake of the potent wave and as a very dry ridge quickly pushing into the area, recent obs have supported strong downsloping with low dwpts (some already in the upper teens)
resulting across the Piedmont from the west. Enhanced gradient winds from the west to NW should also kick in by this afternoon.
Thinking the current fire danger statement is well warranted for parts of the western and southern CWA. Little change made to previous forecast other than a few tweaks per recent obs and a bit thicker area of cirrus skirting the area that should push eastward. Some cold advection stratocu looks like it is making it into some of the north, but downsloping may win over and scatter out
Previous discussion follows

As of 200 AM Tuesday...

A strong shortwave trough digging SE across the OH valley and Mid- Atlantic will shift offshore of the NE US tonight. Behind it, a WNW flow will persist across the area, although ridging will start to slide east into the central Plains. At the surface, a surge of Arctic air currently over the Midwest and Great Lakes will move into our area tonight and into early Wed as a 1030 mb high over the Mid- Mississippi Valley moves into the TN valley and southern Appalachians. A tight pressure gradient will be in place, and with the CAA and winds aloft, WNW winds will increase later this morning and afternoon of 10-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph. Deep mixing and downslope drying off the Appalachians will support dewpoints crashing into the single digits to middle teens later this afternoon. This will favor a very dry atmosphere with RH values in the 20-25 percent range. Thus, have continued the increased fire danger across the western Piedmont and Sandhills. Highs will be some 8-14 degrees below normal in the middle 40s to low 50s NW to SE.

Tonight, as the surface high slides over us, winds will become calm.
A few high clouds may stream in from the NW but otherwise optimal radiational cooling should be in place for near-record lows (see climate section) in the middle teens to lower 20s. We favored the colder guidance given the anomalously cold airmass. Some outlying areas could even dip into the lower teens as the NBM shows a 70- percent probability of less than 10 deg F over portions of Randolph, Chatham, and Moore counties.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

The sfc high and associated cold air mass will slowly slide over us on Wednesday, before starting to move offshore Wednesday night. This will set up a chilly day with high temps hovering in the mid to upper 40s (~15 degrees below normal). Given the presence of the center of the high, gustiness should be relatively subdued compared to Tuesday. However, PWAT will again remain quite low (~25 % of normal for this time of year). As the high slowly shifts offshore overnight, we'll start to see temps moderate some as low-level thicknesses settle into the 1310 to 1330 m range early Thursday morning under light sly sfc flow (closer to normal for this time of year). However, good radiational cooling potential should still promote below normal lows in the lower to mid 20s (with some teens likely in our cooler spots).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure across the Carolinas Thu morning will build east throughout the day as a weak ridge aloft pushes east across the region. The warming trend from Wed's cold weather will begin as warm air advection and higher heights occur across the area, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across most areas. High clouds will begin to stream across the region late in the day as the next system approaches NC. Overnight lows will also return to the 30s.

An upper trough will then lift from the central Plains Thu night across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. At the surface, low pressure will move from the TN Valley to across the Mid-Atlantic, with a warm front lifting across central NC Friday and a cold front following behind early Saturday. These features will generate the next chance of rain across our area, likely beginning early Friday and slowly ending from NW to SE early Saturday. Isentropic ascent will provide light rain across most areas, with small accumulations of one- quarter inch or less. Highs will increase to the mid-60s SE Friday, with areas across the NW remaining in the mid-50s.

Rain chances may linger across the southern half of the area Saturday as a weak upper wave moves across NC/SC and the cold front stalls across SC. Rain chances then increase again late Saturday into Sunday as the stalled front lifts north across the region and a few more embedded waves aloft traverse the region in the southwesterly flow. Precipitation amounts should be on the rise as moisture increases along the column. Highs increase slightly for the weekend with most areas in the 60s and isolated upper 50s near the VA border.

Confidence in the forecast then decreases late Sunday into Monday as a deeper low and stronger upper trough move east towards the region, along with a cold front. Models and their ensembles are struggling with the details, however our wet pattern does look to continue into early next week. From Friday through next Monday, rainfall totals could be as high a few inches, especially near the NC/SC border.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions through period as dry high pressure will be in control. Some stratocu near some of the northern sites this afternoon mainly FEW/SCT near 6-7 kft that should become mainly SKC for the overnight and into Wednesday. Gusty west to NW winds this afternoon near 12 kts gusting 24 kts and possibly higher at times. Winds should gradually decrease by this evening and actually become light and VRB by around 06-08z. They should shift out of the SW during the day Wednesday and should generally range 7-10 kts by the afternoon.

Looking beyond 18z Wed: VFR conditions will dominate through much of the week. A storm system will move in from the southwest, bringing a good chance of sub-VFR conditions and areas of rain over much of the area from Fri morning through Sat. Low level wind shear may occur as well during this time, especially Fri.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:15 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:46 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:01 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Raleigh/Durham, NC,