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PZZ830 Pigeon Point To Point Piedras Blancas Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 737 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon..N to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 737 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
Mon..N to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming n. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon night..Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..S to se winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..S to se winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Wed night..N to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming variable. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
Thu..E winds less than 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Fri..S to se winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.

FXUS66 KMTR 110807 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1207 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Look for quiet weather this week with mild days and cool night. A pattern change takes hold by early next week with a return to wet and unsettled conditions.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

An upper level ridge initially across the region will flatten in response to a shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This pattern change will bring a more onshore wind component for this afternoon and evening while increasing boundary layer moisture across coastal portions of the area. Expect a return of coastal stratus and patchy fog this evening into Tuesday morning along with warmer overnight coastal and bayside temperatures. Highs this afternoon with top out mostly in the 60s, with overnight lows mainly in the upper 30s and 40s. Some of the colder inland portions of the Central Coast may see readings briefly dip into the mid or lower 30s towards sunrise.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

The aforementioned shortwave will obtain sufficiently short wavelength to close off over the Desert Southwest by late week as transient ridging builds over California. Meanwhile a closed upper low will approach the region from the eastern Pacific by late week.

An active and unsettled pattern still appears to evolve by early next week. Model solutions have been rather provocative with a robust basin-spanning Pacific jet and decent subtropical moisture tap in play. Rain chances should enter the picture by Saturday and persist into next week, with an Atmospheric River type setup potentially in play. Exact details such as timing, rain amounts, and intensity will be fine tuned in the days ahead. This will be an evolving forecast so be sure to keep up with changes.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 922 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Currently seeing VFR at all terminals. Most terminals will retain this status through a majority of the TAF period with the possibility of MVFR to IFR ceilings coming in at the end of the 24- hour TAF period at 06Z Tuesday. Confidence is not yet high enough to include definitive ceilings in any TAFs. There are still signals for STS to see something similar to what they saw last night in terms of low fog and low visibility; however, the passage of high clouds from a shortwave may hinder that opportunity, thus not giving high enough confidence to include in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently VFR with calm winds and high clouds.
VFR will persist through most of the TAF period with chances for an MVFR ceiling in the 08Z-18Z Tuesday time range. Winds will remain breezy and onshore throughout the TAF period with northwesterly winds giving way to westerly winds by 22Z tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both MRY and SNS. Both terminals have a chance of ceilings at the end of the TAF period at 06Z Tuesday, IFR for MRY and MVFR for SNS; however, confidence is not yet high enough to include in the TAFs definitively. Winds will turn offshore and remain light overnight before returning to breezy onshore flow tomorrow.

MARINE
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the Great Basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. New storm system approaches next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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