Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:25PM Monday October 21, 2019 12:18 AM PDT (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ575 Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10-60 Nm- 834 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds and S around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 13 seconds and S around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell around 8 ft at 12 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 11 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft and S around 2 ft.
Fri..N winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft.
PZZ500 834 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A 1027 mb high centered 1000 miles west of point pinos will move east resulting in increasing northwest winds over the coastal waters tonight through Wednesday. Winds will decrease by Wednesday night as winds turn more offshore. A moderate northwest swell will continue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 210537
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1037 pm pdt Sun oct 20 2019

Synopsis A warming and drying trend will continue through
much of the week ahead as high pressure strengthens over
california. In addition, offshore flow will develop by Monday, and
increase by midweek, which will result in warm temperatures
reaching all the way to the coast. Locally gusty offshore winds
are likely at times in the hills, especially in the north bay
hills on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. In the longer
range, cooling is forecast next weekend, although another round
of dry offshore winds look increasingly likely by late in the
weekend and into early next week.

Discussion As of 9:00 pm pdt Sunday... Sunday was a mostly
sunny and mild autumn day with light winds and temperatures near
normal. Afternoon highs were a few degrees warmer than Saturday in
most locations and as much as 15 degrees warmer in the north bay.

The warming trend that got off to a tentative start in most areas
today will become more robust and widespread on Monday as
offshore flow develops. Offshore flow will be most evident in the
hills where widespread north winds will bring a drier airmass into
the region. In addition, an upper ridge currently centered
offshore along 135w will shift eastward and be aligned along the
ca coast by late Monday. Subsidence under this ridge is forecast
to increase 850 mb temperatures from about 13 deg c today to 18
deg c by tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon highs on Monday are
forecast to warm into the 70s near the coast and 80s inland.

A few additional degrees of warming is likely on Tuesday as the
airmass dries out even further. Although daytime temperatures
will be trending upward, nighttime temperatures will not likely
change much, and could actually cool a bit in the valleys by
Tuesday morning due to the dry nature of the airmass.

The daytime warming trend will likely stall temporarily on
Wednesday when the upper ridge weakens slightly over california in
response to an upper trough dropping southeast out of western
canada and across the northern rockies. The upper ridge will then
quickly rebuild near the ca coast by Thursday. Also, surface high
pressure is forecast to strengthen over the great basin on
Wednesday night which will enhance offshore flow across our area
Wednesday night into Thursday. These developments will result in
renewed warming on Thursday, especially in coastal areas which
will be impacted most by stronger offshore flow. Offshore flow is
then expected to decrease by Friday as the surface high over the
great basin weakens. Thus, Thursday will likely be the warmest day
of the week at the coast. In any case, warm temperatures will
persist in all areas into Friday and the interior valleys and
hills may see their warmest temps on Friday.

Given the warm and very dry conditions expected through the week
ahead, fire weather concerns will be elevated, especially if
offshore winds increase sufficiently. Locally gusty offshore
winds are likely at times, particularly across the north bay on
Wednesday night and Thursday morning when offshore gradients are
forecast to peak. Winds in the hills are not expected to be
strong enough to warrant wind advisories, but offshore winds will
likely be strong enough to create critical fire weather
conditions, especially on Wednesday night and early Thursday (see
fire weather discussion below for details).

Longer range models agree that an upper trough will plunge south
out of western canada next weekend. This trough is forecast to dig
south much farther to the west than the midweek system, and bring
much cooler temperatures to our region by the end of next
weekend. Also, widespread gusty offshore winds will likely
accompany this system late in the weekend and into early next
week. So, even through temperatures will be on a steep decline,
dry gusty winds will likely result in renewed fire concerns.

Aviation As of 10:40 pm pdt Sunday... Developing offshore flow
over the area will keepVFR conditions over the sfo bay area.

Models suggest some increasing low level moisture over the coastal
waters later tonight with patchy CIGS developing along the coast
and around mry bay area. Satellite image does show low clouds
approaching mry bay so will have to watch if the stratus continues
towards land or veers offshore.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.

Sfo bridge approach... Same as ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Ifr CIGS expected after 10z but
confidence is not high as it could stay clear.

Fire weather As of 9:00 pm pdt Sunday... Heightened fire
weather concerns are expected through the week as warm and very
dry conditions combine with gusty offshore winds at times to
create critical to near critical fire weather conditions.

Latest local WRF model forecasts locally gusty north winds in the
higher hills of southern san benito county and southeast monterey
county late tonight and Monday morning. These winds will be of
relatively short duration and occur before the driest airmass
arrives.

A warming and drying trend will continue through Thursday as high
pressure builds over california and offshore flow develops.

Offshore flow will be mostly light except locally moderate and
gusty at times in the hills. Relative humidity values will drop
into the teens by Tuesday afternoon. Very poor overnight humidity
recoveries are expected in the hills starting Monday night and
continuing for the rest of the week. The period of greatest
concern is Wednesday night and Thursday morning when some models
indicate the potential for stronger north to northeast winds in
the hills, mainly across the higher elevations of the north bay.

Fire weather watches and or red flag warnings may be issued over
the next few days if critical fire weather conditions are deemed
likely to occur.

Marine As of 10:23 pm pdt Sunday... A 1027 mb high centered 1000
miles west of point pinos will move east resulting in increasing
northwest winds over the coastal waters tonight through Wednesday.

Winds will decrease by Wednesday night as winds turn more
offshore. A moderate northwest swell will continue.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt Sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 11 pm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
public forecast: dykema
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
fire weather: dykema
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 100 mi18 min 56°F8 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA120 mi24 minESE 310.00 miFair56°F45°F67%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRY

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4CalmNW4N3NW5NW8W8NW8W5W64CalmSW4S3CalmSE3
1 day agoS5SE4SE3E5SE4CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmNW3CalmW7W7NW8W8NW94NW7N5W5W7SW6W6
2 days agoS5S5SE5S4SE3SE3SE4SE4CalmSE5NW3W4NW7W7NW8W8W8W8SW5W7SW6W5SW3S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.