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PZZ575 Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10-60 Nm- 848 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming nw 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Wind waves 0 to 1 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell around 4 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft.

PZZ500 848 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
expect weaker winds into Thursday before strong breezes develop in the late morning, with gale force winds possible over the far southern coastal waters near point sur. A larger moderate period northwest swell arrives in the late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into the weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 300550 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 950 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

New MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 118 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Unsettled pattern continues this week with cooler temperatures before a warming trend begins this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 848 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Satellite currently shows a mix of clear sky over the eastern forecast area, a few areas of low clouds and jet stream cirrus clouds rapidly moving in from the northwest. Due to recent rain, a few patches of valley fog may develop later tonight and Thursday morning, although the areal coverage should be limited due to increasing clouds and cool air advection tonight and Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Satellite imagery shows an upper level trough coming across California, and a surface level low paralleling the coast, situated a little under 200 miles west-southwest of Monterey. Shower activity which had developed last night and extended through this morning has largely dissipated, a few stragglers remaining off the Big Sur coast, where they'll linger into the afternoon. Across the region, rainfall totals ranged from a few hundredths across the interior Central Coast and the northern reaches of the North Bay, to closer to a quarter to a half of an inch across an area from Marin County through Oakland and central San Mateo County, and up to one inch in the higher elevations of Marin County, San Francisco, and northern San Mateo County. Any additional rainfall on land will be limited to convective cells across the immediate Big Sur coast and Santa Lucias, and even then only up to a tenth of an inch of additional rain is expected.

Skies will clear out through the rest of today, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s in the lower elevations and into the low to mid 50s in the higher elevations. Tonight's lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast down to the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, with tomorrow's highs around the same as today's. Some sprinkles are expected across the coastal ranges tomorrow, but not expecting any totals above a tenth of an inch.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 118 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Upper level flow from the northwest will contribute to an unsettled weather pattern, with several disturbances approaching the west coast. However, those disturbances will mainly impact the Pacific Northwest and northern California, with the North Bay mainly seeing the fringes of the system. Exact rain amounts are unclear, but ensemble model guidance suggests that the most likely rain totals fall at or under half an inch. The highest rainfall totals appear to be focused across the Sonoma coastal ranges, and even there, the probability of rain totals above half an inch across the extended period lies at or below 10%.

The main impacts of this unsettled weather pattern for our region include cooler temperatures and periods of cloudy skies. Highs for the rest of the work week will stay around the upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations, and the upper 40s to mid 50s in the higher elevations. In addition, breezy onshore winds are expected later on Thursday into Friday, as the upper trough moves into the Great Basin and an upper level ridge develops in the North Pacific.
That upper level ridge will then move into the area this weekend, causing a warming trend. Highs for the beginning of next week rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s for the interior valleys, to the mid 50s to lower 60s in the higher elevations.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 4945 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Widespread VFR lasts through much of Thursday morning. Light to moderate winds last through the night. Winds aloft remain stronger over the North Bay leading to LLWS concerns at STS in the early morning. Some models point to brief periods of drizzle Thursday, but do not look to be impactful. Breezy to gusty west and northwest winds build Thursday afternoon. MVFR CIGs affect the southern terminals Thursday afternoon. Surface winds reduce late Thursday, but winds aloft remain stronger in the North Bay leading to another round of LLWS concerns at STS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light and Variable into the evening but increase and become northwesterly into the night. Some lower clouds move through the SF Bay late Thursday morning, but are quick to clear. Gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon and look to last into the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late Thursday morning. Expect light and variable winds through Thursday morning. MVFR CIGs arrive with gusty northwest winds Thursday afternoon but cigs will clear in the late afternoon and winds reduce into the night.



MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 945 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Expect weaker winds into Thursday before strong breezes develop in the late morning, with gale force winds possible over the far southern coastal waters near Point Sur. A larger moderate period northwest swell arrives in the late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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