Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:17PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:31 PM PDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ575 Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos 10-60 Nm- 238 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. SWell S around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves around 5 ft. SWell S around 2 ft.
PZZ500 238 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Predominately light winds today, with locally gusty winds in the outer waters north of point reyes. In addition, the afternoon seabreeze will bring gusty west to southwest winds from the golden gate gap towards angel island, san pablo bay, and the carquinez strait through at least the next couple of days. Otherwise, a moderate southerly swell will persist in the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
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location: 35.63, -123.73     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 292359 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 459 PM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably warm weather continues into Friday before a slight cooling trend arrives Saturday through early next week. High pressure rebuilds over Southern California by the middle of next week with more inland warming while the marine layer will persist along the coast.

DISCUSSION. as of 2:55 PM PDT Thursday . Skies are mostly sunny this afternoon while a few high clouds pass over the region. Along the coast the marine layer is hugging area beaches with a current depth around 1200-1500 feet. Meanwhile over the Sierra moisture is increasing with numerous showers and t-storms across the crest and streaming northward. The ocean sea surface temps (SST) have trended upward the last few days as coastal upwelling has eased with light northwest winds. Current SST readings around 60 degrees has left the coast feeling muggier than normal and mild overnight lows even within the marine boundary layer. Temps this afternoon still running pretty hot inland with widespread 90s and even some lower 100s for the hottest interior valleys.

For tonight expect the marine layer to only push locally into the bay and coastal valleys given the shallow depth though onshore gradients remain moderate around 2.5 mb.

For Friday, still not expecting much overall change as seasonably hot weather will continue inland with mild to warm conditions near the coast and bays. Monsoonal moisture will still be abundant across the Sierra and Nevada as well as points northward but not expected to impact the Bay Area/Central Coast.

An incoming trough will approach late Friday night into Saturday. This should lead to a deepening marine layer and stronger onshore winds by Saturday afternoon and ultimately some slight cooling inland as upper 80s/lower 90s become more common versus upper 90s to lower 100s. This trough will bring increasing southwest wind flow aloft helping to push any residual monsoon moisture well east of the Bay Area and more east of the crest. In addition a better mixing profile and stronger winds aloft should help to keep Dixie Fire smoke from draining down the valley and into the Bay Area.

Weak troughing off the coast into early next week should keep temps near to slightly below normal with persistent marine layer and onshore winds. Building high pressure over SoCal by middle to end of next week will bring renewed inland warming but in general a pretty seasonable pattern as we head into August. As noted this morning many of todays record highs date back to 1977 which preceded the late July/early August lightning of that summer. No record heat waves on the horizon and not seeing any signals for lightning events at this time in the mid/long range as monsoonal pushes look to stay to our east.

AVIATION. as of 05:00 PM PDT Thursday . For the 00z TAFs. The latest coastal profilers continue to pick up on a shallow 700-1000 ft marine layer over our coastal waters that is helping to sustain 10-15kt winds over our coastal terminals this afternoon, particularly along our gaps and passes. Monsoonal moisture also continues to travel aloft, bringing in FEW/SCT cigs at 15000-20000 ft that will be a recurring theme through the end of the TAF period. For tonight, will see a return of IFR/LIFR cigs at our coastal terminals and even some patchy VLIFR cigs along the coast. Given the westerly flow, cannot rule out some coastal stratus making it into some of the North Bay terminals, mainly around STS, so have included the possibility there as well. Cigs will be relatively low given the shallow marine layer interface, and will be persistent through the overnight before clearing out by 16-17Z tomorrow. A similar pattern can be expected through the day tomorrow as VFR returns to the surface and mid/high-level clouds continue to roll over the region.

Vicinity of KSFO . Mostly VFR through the TAF period. Winds this afternoon will peak to nnw 15-20 kts. These winds look to last through that evening but will gradually back off during the overnight. For tonight, patchy stratus deck returns with borderline MVFR/IFR SCT/BKN deck into mid-morning Friday. Increasing confidence in this cigs being observed within the vicinity, so have added a TEMPO group to account for some of those conditions as stratification builds along the Bay Shoreline. Stratus will then rapidly retreat after 16Z, with breezy conditions and mid/high-level clouds expected through the end of the TAF period.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . Breeze winds this afternoon as the Marine layer compresses. Light, variable winds will then be the theme for the evening along with the return of IFR cigs at the terminals and even some LIFR/VLIFR cigs along the immediate coast. These conditions will fizzle our by mid-morning.

MARINE. as of 04:37 PM PDT Thursday . Predominately light winds today, with locally gusty winds in the outer waters north of Point Reyes. In addition, the afternoon seabreeze will bring gusty west to southwest winds from the Golden Gate gap towards Angel Island, San Pablo Bay, and the Carquinez Strait through at least the next couple of days. Otherwise, a moderate southerly swell will persist in the waters.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA . SF Bay until 9 PM



PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: Diaz MARINE: DRP

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Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 97 mi22 min WNW 9.7 G 12 59°F 59°F1013.9 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 99 mi36 min 62°F3 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA120 mi38 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds71°F56°F59%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRY

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W5N3N5NE4W4CalmW3CalmS43CalmCalmN3NE3NW4N4N5N7W8NW7W8NW6
1 day agoW11W6W6SW4N4NE3CalmN3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4N5N5N7W9W9W9W8
2 days agoNW7N5N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmN5N6W12W7NW8W13W8

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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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