Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
May 19, 2024 1:34 PM PDT (20:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM Moonset 2:56 AM |
PZZ830 Pigeon Point To Point Piedras Blancas Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 855 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Today - N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
Tonight - N to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
Mon - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
Mon night - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
Tue - N to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
Wed - N to nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
Wed night - NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Thu - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Thu night - NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 856 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Today - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Tonight - NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to sw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Tue - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
Wed - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Wed night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Thu - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 191938 AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1238 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Clouds continue to rapidly erode as of early this afternoon and will continue to do so into the evening. Low clouds are more than likely to return to the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula overnight but will clear by early-to-mid morning. Also, cannot rule out patchy drizzle in and around the Monterey Bay early Monday morning.
Afternoon temperatures for Monday will be similar to today, yet coastal areas will warm by a few degrees thanks to northerly flow across the region. Thus, expecting highs to range from the lower 60's to near 70 degrees at the coast with mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.
By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR across the region this afternoon as stratus continues to recede away to the coastline. Winds generally westerly and around 12-15 knots sustained this afternoon, with coastal terminals seeing occasional gusts around the 20 kt mark. Tonight, most terminals are forecast to remain clear and VFR with the exception of Monterey Bay who is likely to see MVFR CIGs from stratus. However, confidence on maintaining VFR into the night is only moderate as short term models the last few days have not seemed to handle changing conditions and stratus cover well. Troughing and breezier winds should deepen the marine layer and keep it well mixed, therefore limiting the extent of stratus coverage. Highest confidence is in far inland terminals remaining VFR through the TAF period, with moderate confidence on coastal terminals maintaining VFR and just seeing FEW-SCT low clouds.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Moderate and gusty W/NW winds this afternoon persist through the evening, slowly weakening into the night to become light in the first hours of Monday. As winds weaken, FEW low clouds may develop over the terminal, but not expecting a CIG. Breezy onshore winds return in the afternoon of Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus continues to hang over the terminal, though satellite continues to show the cloud deck receding to the coast line. Come the early afternoon, VFR conditions are likely to return, with winds increasing to become breezy. Occasional gusts nearing the 20 kt mark are expected. Stratus makes a return in the evening beyond sunset, with MVFR CIGs forming. MVFR then lasts through the late morning of Monday.
MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1238 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Clouds continue to rapidly erode as of early this afternoon and will continue to do so into the evening. Low clouds are more than likely to return to the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula overnight but will clear by early-to-mid morning. Also, cannot rule out patchy drizzle in and around the Monterey Bay early Monday morning.
Afternoon temperatures for Monday will be similar to today, yet coastal areas will warm by a few degrees thanks to northerly flow across the region. Thus, expecting highs to range from the lower 60's to near 70 degrees at the coast with mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.
By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
VFR across the region this afternoon as stratus continues to recede away to the coastline. Winds generally westerly and around 12-15 knots sustained this afternoon, with coastal terminals seeing occasional gusts around the 20 kt mark. Tonight, most terminals are forecast to remain clear and VFR with the exception of Monterey Bay who is likely to see MVFR CIGs from stratus. However, confidence on maintaining VFR into the night is only moderate as short term models the last few days have not seemed to handle changing conditions and stratus cover well. Troughing and breezier winds should deepen the marine layer and keep it well mixed, therefore limiting the extent of stratus coverage. Highest confidence is in far inland terminals remaining VFR through the TAF period, with moderate confidence on coastal terminals maintaining VFR and just seeing FEW-SCT low clouds.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Moderate and gusty W/NW winds this afternoon persist through the evening, slowly weakening into the night to become light in the first hours of Monday. As winds weaken, FEW low clouds may develop over the terminal, but not expecting a CIG. Breezy onshore winds return in the afternoon of Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus continues to hang over the terminal, though satellite continues to show the cloud deck receding to the coast line. Come the early afternoon, VFR conditions are likely to return, with winds increasing to become breezy. Occasional gusts nearing the 20 kt mark are expected. Stratus makes a return in the evening beyond sunset, with MVFR CIGs forming. MVFR then lasts through the late morning of Monday.
MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024
Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM.
San Francisco Bay Area, CA,
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