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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC

June 25, 2024 2:05 PM EDT (18:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 10:51 PM   Moonset 8:39 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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449 FXUS62 KRAH 251745 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle Atlantic today, then continue to extend westward across the South Atlantic states through Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough, then weak cold front, will move across NC Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1050 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning. A 1018 mb area of surface high pressure is currently centered over northern VA and the eastern panhandle of WV, with the cold front now well to our south across southern GA/SC. Looking aloft, a mid/upper low now centered over Nova Scotia will lift NE through tonight as ridging builds over the Deep South. Warming and drying from this ridging is resulting in a stout subsident inversion at 700 mb evident again on this morning`s GSO sounding.

It will be another hot day with the ridge in place, and low-level thicknesses look to be similar to yesterday, supporting high temperatures ranging from lower-90s in the far NE to upper-90s in the far SW. However, dry air and good mixing will help dew points be noticeably lower than yesterday, dropping to the upper-50s this afternoon across the far northern Piedmont and lower-to-mid-60s in most other places. So heat indices will be similar to air temperatures. Still, basic heat precautions should be taken if you have to spend extended periods of time outdoors, especially given this extended stretch of heat we have been in.

As the surface high moves offshore this afternoon, the low-level flow will switch southeasterly, helping bring in a sea breeze. Some CAMS depict a few showers developing in southern Sampson and far SE Cumberland counties along the sea breeze so keep slight chance POPs there from mid afternoon to early evening (19-23z). But don`t think sea breeze forcing will be enough to develop anything robust given the strong capping inversion in place, so if any precipitation does occur it would be light and brief. Otherwise it will be dry and mostly sunny with just some scattered flat cu possible.

Tonight will be another warm night with lows in the upper-60s to lower-70s. Low stratus will be possible early tomorrow morning especially in the south.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 425 AM Tuesday...

Hotter, and slightly more humid.

A 700 mb anticyclone will weaken a few decameters as it builds across and offshore NC. It will do so downstream of a shortwave perturbation, now over srn BC, which will amplify slightly while pivoting from the upr MS Valley at 12Z Wed ewd and across the Great Lakes and nrn Middle Atlantic through 12Z Thu. The models indicate the equatorward portion of the trough will be accompanied by a positively-tilted, convectively-amplified mid-level trough from the srn Middle Atlantic to the TN and lwr MS Valleys through the same time. 850 mb standardized temperature anomalies beneath and downstream of the 700 mb anticyclone are forecast to be around 3 sigma above average over the Carolinas, with daily record 850 mb temperatures possible at GSO.

At the surface, weak high pressure that will migrate off the srn Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Wed will become absorbed by a larger and stronger high anchored over the cntl Atlantic. An associated ridge, and broad sly/swly flow, will extend wwd and across the South Atlantic states, while an Appalachian-lee trough will develop Wed over the srn Middle Atlantic Foothills/wrn Piedmont. A synoptic cold front will meanwhile approach from the northwest and settle into the pre-frontal/lee trough position and extend from the Delmarva swwd to the srn Appalachians/wrn Carolinas by 12Z Thu. The front/trough may be preceded by remnant convective outflow over the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont, including in cntl NC.

The pattern described above will favor what may be the hottest day yet during the ongoing stretch of heat that began over cntl NC this past weekend, with forecast high temperatures 8-14 F above average and mostly in the mid 90s to around 100, including near the daily record of 102 F at RDU. Seasonable, mixed/afternoon surface dewpoints mostly in the mid-upr 60s will yield Heat Index values 2-5 F on average higher than air temperatures and in the upr 90s over the nw Piedmont to 100-105 F elsewhere. Isolated convection will be possible particularly along/in the vicinity of both the lee trough (over the far wrn Piedmont) and sea breeze (Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain) during the afternoon-early evening, followed by a slightly higher chance (25-40%) of showers/storms accompanying the approach/arrival of the aforementioned convectively-amplified mid- level trough and convective outflow, mainly over the Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, overnight. It will otherwise be muggy and quite mild, with low temperatures 5-10 F above average and mostly in the lwr-mid 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide southeast through the day. At this point, Thursday afternoon currently looks like the best chance for rain in the next 7 days, with likely pops extending south and east from Raleigh. While instability values should be modest, between 1000-2000 J/kg, the vertical wind profile shows very little shear, which will make it hard for any thunderstorms to become organized and produce severe weather. The chance for thunderstorms will continue into the evening, and another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon with the front loitering in the region - ensembles show the chance of showers/storms extending a bit farther to the north on Friday than they did 24 hours ago. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday, but the next chance of storms across the region will come Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday with another front. The NAEFS shows a higher probability of rain Sunday night than Thursday, but this remains an outlier solution.

There will be minimal relief from the heat with Thursday`s front, although highs should drop 3-5 degrees from Wednesday`s values.
Still, most of the region will reach the 90s again. Friday`s high will be similar to Thursday`s, then an upper ridge will build over the Southeast for the weekend, bringing a renewed surge of heat and humidity. Saturday and particularly Sunday are the days with the highest heat indices, with nearly all locations over 100 degrees on Sunday. While humidity will remain high on Monday, highs should be 5- 10 degrees cooler compared to Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

24-hour TAF period: Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through this evening, with just some scattered stratocumulus and altocumulus. There could be a very isolated shower or storm from the sea breeze in the far SE, mainly southern Sampson County, later this afternoon. Model soundings (including on the RAP, HRRR and NAM) show potential for IFR or low MVFR stratus late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The highest confidence of this occurring is at FAY, but it can`t be ruled out at RDU and RWI either. Any ceilings will quickly lift and scatter out by mid morning. Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) and from the S/SE today, shifting to SW tomorrow morning.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will be possible especially at FAY and RWI each early morning from Thu through the weekend. A chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will also return to the forecast for Wed through the weekend, with the relative highest probabilities at FAY/RWI on Thu. Additionally, the development of an Appalachian- lee, nocturnal low-level jet across and offshore the Middle Wed night may result in marginal low-level wind shear in cntl NC during that time.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914

June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998

June 30: KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25: KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914

June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969

June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936

July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990



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