Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 910 AM Saturday...

No major changes were made to the forecast into this evening. The forecast remains on track with temperatures rising into the mid 40s NE to low 50s SW. The prior discussion from earlier this morning follows below.

* Moderating temperatures to well above normal by Sunday ahead of an active period early next week.

A broad 1028mb surface high positioned from the ArkLaTex region eastward over the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic will remain elongated as it sags southeast through tonight. This will prompt a wind shift back out of the southwest, but given the surface high will be draped across the GOM states, moisture return will remain minimal and support another day of very dry dew points and low RH.
Low-level thickness will however rise fairly substantially, 35 to 40m in 24 hours, compared to Fri evening and support highs in the upper 40s to low 50s by this afternoon. Warmer daytime highs and continued light stirring overnight will bump lows closer to normal (upper 20s to low 30s), but pockets of calm in the typical cold spots in the Piedmont may still dip down into the mid 20s.

By Sun the surface high will continue to weaken as it slides further southeast into the western Atlantic, although still well removed from the deep moisture advection off the GOM. Dew points do rise Sun as daytime heating mixes down moisture that is advected in aloft from the TN Valley. Another 30 to 40m rise in low-level thickness will push highs into the 60s areawide (5 to 10 degrees above normal). Mid/high level clouds will begin to push into our area from the southwest ahead of an active period beginning Sun night

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 AM Saturday...

A southern stream s/w trough crossing the Southern Plains late Sunday will move NE and cross the OH and TN and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. That s/w will be quickly followed by another wave, this one a bit further south, crossing the Carolinas prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings for points across our area show rapid moistening throughout the column Sunday evening and night, with light rain possible before sunrise Monday morning as increasing SW llvl flow and warm air advecting nwrd overruns the cool stable near-sfc layer.
It looks like there will be about a 12hr window of opportunity for said light rain between 06-18Z Monday, with QPF generally 1/4 inch or less. After a break in the rain between 18Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday, the aforementioned secondary s/w trough will provide another chance for light rain between 06-16Z Tuesday, but since this wave is tracking farther south, the best chance for rain will be south of the Hwy 64 corridor, and esp locations south and east of Raleigh. QPF with the second rain opportunity will also be less than 1/4 inch. Given the warmer southerly flow and resultant WAA, high temps both Monday and Tuesday will be 5-10 deg above normal... in the 50s on Monday and in the 60s on Tuesday. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday morning will be warmer too... lower 40s Monday morning and upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 400 AM Saturday...

After a couple quick passing southern stream s/w troughs during the short-term period, a l/w trough will deepen over the middle of the country as the northern stream plummets southward again. This trough will quickly shift east as the as the increasing northern stream flow merges with the southern stream and a potent upper jet streak lifts northward on the east side of the trough. This highly energized trough will push a cold front across the Carolinas either Tuesday night or very early Wednesday. Given the WAA ahead of the trough, forecasts soundings show the llvl inversion mostly eroding with moist adiabatic lapse rates evolving aloft. Thus the frontal precip during this time should be weakly convective in nature, however, given the aforementioned jet energy, both llvl shear and deeper bulk shear will be impressive. This is looking like a typical high shear-low cape precip event... with fropa expected Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Given the prefrontal moisture advection, pwats will be around 1.5 inches. Given the highly dynamic nature of this event, assoc strong forcing, and high pwats, it's possible we may see localized heavy downpours, and this event may result in 1-1.5 inches of much-needed rain.
It's worth noting that Day 4 ERO shows the western half of central NC in MRGL. Given how dry it's been, any FF risk should be very much isold. Will keep a close eye on trends. Highs on Wednesday will be dependent on exact timing of fropa, and if it comes early, our current forecast highs of 55-65 on Wednesday may be generous,or may occur very early in the day.

Behind the front we'll see quick cold and dry air advection, with temps falling back to at or below normal temps for the rest of the long term period, along with dry weather as high pressure builds into the region.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable to calm winds through this morning will back towards southwesterly through the afternoon. Infrequent gusts up to 15 kts from 15 to 22z will be possible, mainly at the northern TAF sites.
West-northwest winds at 2,000 ft are expected to strengthen to 30 to 40 kts atop a very steep surface inversion; resulting in a period of LLWS with highest confidence at the Triad terminals.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Sun. Sub-VFR conditions may return by Monday with a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday. A stronger system and cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday should bring additional sub-VFR conditions with showers and isolated thunderstorms then.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.