Monday, May10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 10, 2021 6:32 PM EDT (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 101841 RRA AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure will move into the eastern United States behind the cold front, bringing very cold temperatures for mid-May.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/. As of 240 PM Monday .

Tonight and Tuesday's forecast was done early in anticipation of severe weather, and was completed before the 12Z GFS or ECMWF were run. It primarily uses 00Z high-resolution models, the 09Z SREF, and the 12Z NAM.

A cold front is currently along the Virginia-North Carolina state line, just about to bring showers and thunderstorms into the forecast area. Modest wind shear and instability values warrant a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for most of the forecast area and a marginal risk along the northern, western, and southern fringes of the region. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts, but large hail is also a possibility. Although the line is still in the process of forming, the Triad will be impacted through 4pm, the Triangle and Rocky Mount between 5pm-7pm, and Fayetteville after sunset. The front will continue to take its time moving across the area, not finishing its passage until after midnight. The bulk of the rainfall and any severe weather threat should also be done by midnight, but the chance for a shower will linger across southern counties through the night. Overnights lows will be noticeably cooler than last night, in the 50s.

High pressure will briefly ridge into North Carolina from the Great Lakes, but with today's front remaining nearly stationary across South Carolina, cloud cover will still be around for much of the day, even if the forecast remains dry. The combination of widespread cloud cover and northeasterly winds will keep conditions cold for mid May, with highs only reaching the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 135 PM Monday .

The cold front will be settling to our S Tue night, as the most dense/coldest air within the incoming large Arctic high centered over the Upper Midwest will finally be able to breach the mountains and arrive in central NC. Just as the cold air arrives, the long shear axis from the Can Maritimes to N OH to NE continues to push slowly ESE, leading to accelerating upper flow to our N and NE, placing NC within the RRQ of this strengthening jet and beneath strengthening large scale forcing for ascent. This will prompt low pressure development along the front, and this low will cross GA and far S SC before pushing offshore late Wed. Models generally agree on precip spreading into S and W portions Tue night, with amounts and coverage peaking very late Tue night through Wed morning, with slight chance far N to likely far S, in conjunction with this upper lift and passage of weak mid level perturbations. This forcing for ascent and slug of deeper moisture (PW=1.25"-1.5" S of Hwy 64) will slide to our SE late Wed into Wed evening (the ECMWF remains a bit faster than the GFS/NAM), so pops will trend downward NW to SE. After lows Tue night in the mid 40s N to mid 50s S, expect highs only in the upper 50s to within a couple degrees of 60 Wed, making for a raw and anomalously chilly day. (Record low max temps for May 12th are as follows: 58 at RDU set in 1960, 50 at GSO set in 1960, and 61 at FAY set in 1949.) Lows Wed night in the 40s with pops diminishing but mostly cloudy skies hanging on, esp S, as a small jet streak reloads the larger jet to our N and NE. -GIH

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 210 PM Monday .

Below normal temps will gradually moderate during this period. The large cool surface high starts Thu centered over the LP of MI and drifts a bit eastward but largely remains covering SE Canada down through the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the weekend. The tail end of the long sheared vorticity axis breaks off into a weak trough over IA/MO/IL, and this will track ESE through Fri night, bringing chance pops mainly across the S and SE, peaking late Thu night and Fri, as a surface low develops near CHS and deepens while drifting ENE and offshore. Uncertainty persists regarding the degree of low level dry air and how much it could keep precip from reaching the ground, esp given that the surface low will be so far S, so will keep pops on the low end for now. The front kicks back N and NE through the Miss Valley/Mid South Sat, beneath rising mid level heights in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. The presence of this frontal zone oriented NW to SE into W NC and across SC with destabilization potential over the nation's midsection and waves aloft tracking SE from the Great Lakes region brings about concern for a possible MCS riding SE along the frontal zone as we get into Sun/Mon. Will keep the forecast dry for now, given that there is model discrepancy on such a potential, but it's something worth keeping in mind. Cool highs in the 60s to around 70 Thu/Fri will warm into the 70s Sat and further modify to the mid 70s to lower 80s Sun/Mon. -GIH

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 125 PM Monday .

24 hour TAF period: A line of showers and thunderstorms has started developing along a cold front across northern North Carolina and southern Virginia over the last hour. High-resolution models indicate that this line is not likely become a solid line as far west as the Triad and INT/GSO, an idea supported by the recent radar observations, so only VCSH has been included in those TAFs. However, a period of TSRA has been maintained at RDU, RWI, and FAY. Recent model guidance is also suggesting that the line will take a little longer to move from northwest to southeast, so the timing of the thunderstorms has been delayed as well. While a heavier shower/storm could produce additional restrictions, generally stuck with MVFR visibilities and VFR ceilings at this time. The front will stall to the south of the region, but do not think that low ceilings will affect RDU and RWI as indicated in the previous forecast. However, FAY should be close enough to the front to have a multiple hour period of IFR cigs and an extended stretch of MVFR restrictions.

Outlook: Although the extended period will generally be dry, there will be a chance for showers and restrictions on Wednesday and Thursday night with two separate systems moving through the region.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . Green NEAR TERM . Green SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . Hartfield AVIATION . Green


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F60°F56%1011.8 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi42 minN 03.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist71°F63°F76%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTA

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
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