Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:41PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 122053 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 355 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue ridging into portions of the Piedmont through tonight. A low over the Gulf of Mexico will track northeast along the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. As it tracks northeastward across the area, rain will overspread central NC, gradually tapering off area-wide late Friday into Saturday, with dry weather anticipated on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 200 PM Thursday .

. Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain is in effect for portions of the NW Piedmont from midnight through noon Friday .

The strong 1040 mb high over NJ will continue to lift northeast through and off the coast of New England tonight. The high will continue ridging southwestward into central NC, with northeasterly flow keeping the CAD wedge firmly in place over NW portions of the area into Friday morning. The wedge will become pinched/elongated NE- SW as the parent high lifts away. As a result, return flow off the Atlantic will advect increasingly moist and warm air into the area tonight and Friday. Cloud cover will increase rapidly from the south this evening as rain moves into the area. The main forcing for precipitation will be isentropic lift with warm air advecting into the region over the wedge of cold air at the surface. Meanwhile, an inverted trough off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast will strengthen, extending northeastward from a developing surface low over the Gulf.

The threat for a brief period of freezing rain will be limited to along and west of the I-85 corridor. There is a bit more forecast saturation in the dendritic growth zone than there was yesterday, though there is still a prominent 3-6 degree warm nose between H8 and H95. There could be a brief mix of sleet in the NW. Within the lingering CAD wedge in the NW, temps and dewpoints will be lowest and wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing for a few hours. Precipitation into the dry surface layer will help temperatures decrease to the wet bulb temperatures, resulting in a period of freezing rain. There could also be some melting and re-freezing in the lower levels, thus complicating the p-type forecast a bit. The most likely time frame for FZRA will be between 3A and 8A and be limited to primarily the Triad and points north and west. As of the latest forecast, temperatures should rise above freezing Friday morning, with increasing rain chances and melting of any frozen precipitation that may have managed to accumulate. No significant accumulation is expected, however elevated surfaces could see a light accumulation of ice before it melts. Road temperatures will likely remain too warm to accumulate ice, though bridges, especially in areas that remain shaded most of the day and are not highly traveled, may cool to around freezing and become slick.

Elsewhere, precipitation should be all rain, moving in from the southwest as isentropic lift increases tonight/Friday morning. Outside of the wedge airmass to the northwest, temperatures will be allowed to rise as warm, moist air is advected into the area. The coastal trough and Gulf low will strengthen on Friday, with the low sliding northeast along the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast late Friday into Friday night. As the low approaches the Carolinas, the wedge should largely erode and more convectively driven rainfall moves into the area. Friday eve/night will have the more significant rainfall amounts across central NC. Highs Friday will vary greatly from NW to SE, from upper 30s to mid 50s. Lows will be similar to highs, albeit a few degrees lower, upper 30s NW to mid 50s SE. When all is said and done, total liquid precipitation for the period Thursday night through Friday night could range from three- quarters of an inch to almost two inches.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM Thursday .

Rain will continue Fri night into Sat morning as we remain under the influence of the incoming deep negatively tilted trough, focused on two distinct waves, one approaching early Sat morning and the other late Sat afternoon according to the ECMWF/Canadian. Surface low pressure over the eastern Carolinas Fri evening will deepen as it tracks through E VA to New England through Sat, sweeping the cold front through the area and offshore. Will retain high pops Fri night into Sat morning, tapering them down S to N in the afternoon as drier air filters in with lowering PWs to near to below normal, along with rising heights aloft as the trough swings to our NE late Sat and Sat night. Storm total precip should about 1-2 inches. The initial air mass right behind the front is not that cool, with a southern-stream high building in from the WSW and the true Arctic front holding well to our NW. So after somewhat mild lows in the upper 30s NW to around 50 E, expect highs Sat from the mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE. Lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Sat night with clearing skies. -GIH

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM Thursday .

A brief quiet period is expected Sun into early Mon, with an initial flat flow backing over NC in response to a trough digging over the Rockies and Plains. The front will start to retreat back N into NC as a warm front, and while a weak stable pool will remain to its N over the NW Piedmont into Mon, the departure and weakening of the parent surface high and the lack of preceding clouds or precip to lock in the stable pool should make it vulnerable to the warming advancing from the S by Mon. Thicknesses will continue above normal as ridging builds over and off the Southeast coast, so expect mild highs Sun/Mon, in the mid 50s to around 60 Sun and mid 50s to lower 60s Mon.

The approaching trough will merge with northern stream energy into a large positively tilted trough late Mon through Wed. The warm front should continue moving north Mon night, with a surface low moving NE over the S Appalachians and across VA, dragging the cold front through our area Tue. High rain chances will start Mon in our NW, peaking late Mon night through Tue before tapering back down W to E late in the day Tue. As the mid level trough axis will still be to our NW through Wed with vorticity shearing across NC, we should see drier air moving in late Tue but considerable mid and high clouds should hold in the E into Tue night/Wed, followed by dry weather and fair skies late Wed into Thu as the trough axis shifts to our E. -GIH

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1230 PM Thursday .

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions will quickly give way to MVFR cigs and rain from the south around midnight Friday, with conditions deteriorating significantly overnight. periods of FZRA are likely across the far NW terminals (KINT/KGSO) between 06Z and 13Z Friday. Precip onset should be rain, which will cool the temperatures to at/just below freezing within hours, resulting in a transition to FZRA. Temperatures should rise above freezing by noon. Otherwise, predominantly rain with IFR/MVFR visbys and IFR/LIFR cigs will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. -KC

Looking ahead: Rain will persist Friday evening/night, with IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys likely and fog in the wake of the rainfall possible. Expect periods of MVFR cigs on Saturday as a trailing shortwave moves through the area, followed by VFR cigs/vsbys on Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds across the area. -KC/Leins

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Friday for NCZ021-022-038.

SYNOPSIS . KC/Leins NEAR TERM . KC SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . Hartfield AVIATION . KC/Leins


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi64 minE 710.00 miFair44°F22°F42%1034.9 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi68 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds44°F21°F41%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTA

Wind History from TTA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE3N3NE5E7NE9----E5E6
1 day agoSW4N11
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2 days agoS8S6SW4S5SW5S3S3CalmSW3SW4SW8SW7SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.