Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC
May 14, 2024 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 10:59 AM Moonset 12:49 AM |
FXUS62 KRAH 150110 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 909 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will shift to the coast tonight and Wednesday. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 909 PM Tuesday...
The main MCV that generated showers and a few storms across the southern Piedmont/Sandhills/Coastal Plain this afternoon/evening has migrated into our far NE. The associated stronger showers/isolated storms have largely pushed or will push completely east of our area over the next hour. Behind this feature, central NC should remain mostly dry. Further upstream, however, an MCV over central TN is currently generating convection in eastern TN. While most CAMs simulate this activity weakening as it moves across the mountains, can't rule out a few isolated showers moving into our far western areas near sunrise Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows should remain quite warm in the lower to mid 60s as stratus socks back in overnight. There does appear to be a signal for patchy fog developing area-wide as well, with locally dense fog possible across the northern and central Piedmont.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
...There is a Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Severe Storms Wednesday afternoon/early evening...
A compact upper low/shortwave trough centered over the TN Valley Wednesday morning will move eastward through the region through Wednesday night. At the surface, a warm front draped across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning will lift north into Virginia. As it does so, the primary surface low associated with the shortwave trough will begin to fill, with energy transferring to a secondary/triple point low near the southern mid-Atlantic coast. The accompanying trailing surface front will cross the area during the late afternoon and evening.
In the wake of the warm front lifting north into VA, a period of mostly dry conditions are expected through mid day, with a noticeable reduction in PWATs noted across the area, which should allow for some partial breaks in the broken and overcast cloud cover.
Amidst BL dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, tempered afternoon heating will lead to moderate destablization. Coincident with the arrival of the upper trough dynamics and surface front moving into the area from the west, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across the area. Deep layer shear of 30-40 kts would be sufficient to support a few strong to severe storm clusters, with the main severe window between 4-9 PM. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threat, with a model signal of stronger updrafts and severe potential along and south of HWY 64. Rain chances will taper off west to east during the late evening and overnight hours.
Highs will depend on the extent and duration of partial breaks in cloud cover and resultant insolation. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with HRRR probabilities favoring the development of stratus over fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
Unsettled Weather Continues For the Weekend
Thursday and Thursday night: Weak perturbations on the back-side of the exiting shortwave trough could result in some isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry with temps very comparable to Wednesday. Highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Friday through Sunday:
Models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing of another compact upper low and associated shortwave trough into the SE US over the weekend. However, there still remains considerable spread and uncertainty regarding the location/track of a potential surface low through the region and related convective evolution across the area.
Shortwave ridging will build briefly over the Eastern US Friday and then offshore Friday night as the southern stream shortwave trough progresses eastward into the lower MS Valley. A newd ejection of shortwave disturbances, potentially convectively enhanced, within the moistening SW flow aloft, could impact the Carolinas as early as Friday afternoon/evening, especially across the western Piedmont, followed by rain chances spreading east across the area Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday currently looks like the wettest, most unsettled period. Strong SWLY moisture transport with the approach of the upper trough into the area is projected to advect daily record maximum PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9" into the area Saturday. Amidst this anomalously moisture, synoptic scale H5 falls on the order of 30-40m coupled with strengthening upper level divergence as a 80-90kt jet streak into the region will likely support widespread showers and/or storms across central NC. Following a potential early Sunday lull, a second round of showers and storms is likely as the vertically stack low crosses the area. While there's too much uncertain to confidently access how much buoyancy will be realized across the area, CSU ML probabilities and CIPs analogs indicate the potential for a marginal/level 1 threat both days, especially across southern portions of the forecast area. Will closely monitor this severe weather potential. Temperatures will be highly dependent on rain coverage, but the widespread cloud cover and high rain chances should keep high temps near or just below normal. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Lows in the 60s.
Monday and Tuesday: Medium range guidance suggests potential slowing down/stalling of the upper trough along the SE US and western Atlantic early next week which could lead to some lingering rain chances. Will have to monitor these trends. For now, will indicate mostly dry conditions with gradual warming.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 720 PM Tuesday...
Showers and a few isolated storms continue to push east across central NC this evening. The heaviest rain should push east of KRDU and KFAY here shortly, followed by KRWI in a few hours. A lull in precipitation is then expected overnight (some drizzle may linger).
However, IFR/LIFR ceilings (and patchy fog) will sock back in across the entire area later tonight through mid-morning Wednesday. Sites will slowly lift to MVFR and then VFR through early Wednesday afternoon (although KINT/KGSO could hang on to MVFR ceilings a bit longer). Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and may induce brief flight restrictions at all terminals.
Outlook: LIFR/IFR fog/stratus will lift to VFR Wed afternoon.
Another period of showers and storms are possible Wed aftn/eve, along with a chance of sub-VFR stratus or fog early Thu. VFR should return Thu midday, with the next chance of showers possibly from late Fri into Sun.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 909 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will shift to the coast tonight and Wednesday. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 909 PM Tuesday...
The main MCV that generated showers and a few storms across the southern Piedmont/Sandhills/Coastal Plain this afternoon/evening has migrated into our far NE. The associated stronger showers/isolated storms have largely pushed or will push completely east of our area over the next hour. Behind this feature, central NC should remain mostly dry. Further upstream, however, an MCV over central TN is currently generating convection in eastern TN. While most CAMs simulate this activity weakening as it moves across the mountains, can't rule out a few isolated showers moving into our far western areas near sunrise Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows should remain quite warm in the lower to mid 60s as stratus socks back in overnight. There does appear to be a signal for patchy fog developing area-wide as well, with locally dense fog possible across the northern and central Piedmont.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
...There is a Marginal/Level 1 Threat for Severe Storms Wednesday afternoon/early evening...
A compact upper low/shortwave trough centered over the TN Valley Wednesday morning will move eastward through the region through Wednesday night. At the surface, a warm front draped across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning will lift north into Virginia. As it does so, the primary surface low associated with the shortwave trough will begin to fill, with energy transferring to a secondary/triple point low near the southern mid-Atlantic coast. The accompanying trailing surface front will cross the area during the late afternoon and evening.
In the wake of the warm front lifting north into VA, a period of mostly dry conditions are expected through mid day, with a noticeable reduction in PWATs noted across the area, which should allow for some partial breaks in the broken and overcast cloud cover.
Amidst BL dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, tempered afternoon heating will lead to moderate destablization. Coincident with the arrival of the upper trough dynamics and surface front moving into the area from the west, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across the area. Deep layer shear of 30-40 kts would be sufficient to support a few strong to severe storm clusters, with the main severe window between 4-9 PM. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threat, with a model signal of stronger updrafts and severe potential along and south of HWY 64. Rain chances will taper off west to east during the late evening and overnight hours.
Highs will depend on the extent and duration of partial breaks in cloud cover and resultant insolation. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with HRRR probabilities favoring the development of stratus over fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
Unsettled Weather Continues For the Weekend
Thursday and Thursday night: Weak perturbations on the back-side of the exiting shortwave trough could result in some isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry with temps very comparable to Wednesday. Highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Friday through Sunday:
Models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing of another compact upper low and associated shortwave trough into the SE US over the weekend. However, there still remains considerable spread and uncertainty regarding the location/track of a potential surface low through the region and related convective evolution across the area.
Shortwave ridging will build briefly over the Eastern US Friday and then offshore Friday night as the southern stream shortwave trough progresses eastward into the lower MS Valley. A newd ejection of shortwave disturbances, potentially convectively enhanced, within the moistening SW flow aloft, could impact the Carolinas as early as Friday afternoon/evening, especially across the western Piedmont, followed by rain chances spreading east across the area Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday currently looks like the wettest, most unsettled period. Strong SWLY moisture transport with the approach of the upper trough into the area is projected to advect daily record maximum PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9" into the area Saturday. Amidst this anomalously moisture, synoptic scale H5 falls on the order of 30-40m coupled with strengthening upper level divergence as a 80-90kt jet streak into the region will likely support widespread showers and/or storms across central NC. Following a potential early Sunday lull, a second round of showers and storms is likely as the vertically stack low crosses the area. While there's too much uncertain to confidently access how much buoyancy will be realized across the area, CSU ML probabilities and CIPs analogs indicate the potential for a marginal/level 1 threat both days, especially across southern portions of the forecast area. Will closely monitor this severe weather potential. Temperatures will be highly dependent on rain coverage, but the widespread cloud cover and high rain chances should keep high temps near or just below normal. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Lows in the 60s.
Monday and Tuesday: Medium range guidance suggests potential slowing down/stalling of the upper trough along the SE US and western Atlantic early next week which could lead to some lingering rain chances. Will have to monitor these trends. For now, will indicate mostly dry conditions with gradual warming.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 720 PM Tuesday...
Showers and a few isolated storms continue to push east across central NC this evening. The heaviest rain should push east of KRDU and KFAY here shortly, followed by KRWI in a few hours. A lull in precipitation is then expected overnight (some drizzle may linger).
However, IFR/LIFR ceilings (and patchy fog) will sock back in across the entire area later tonight through mid-morning Wednesday. Sites will slowly lift to MVFR and then VFR through early Wednesday afternoon (although KINT/KGSO could hang on to MVFR ceilings a bit longer). Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and may induce brief flight restrictions at all terminals.
Outlook: LIFR/IFR fog/stratus will lift to VFR Wed afternoon.
Another period of showers and storms are possible Wed aftn/eve, along with a chance of sub-VFR stratus or fog early Thu. VFR should return Thu midday, with the next chance of showers possibly from late Fri into Sun.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 3 sm | 10 min | NW 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.79 | |
| KSCR SILER CITY MUNI,NC | 22 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.79 | |
| KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 23 sm | 44 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.76 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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