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FXUS64 KMEG 110525 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1125 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 910 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Temperatures are already in the 20s at several locations in west Tennessee with 30s across most of the Midsouth. Some high clouds are streaming in from the northwest, but they are moving into a drier airmass so they are eroding as they approach. Clouds may limit overnight cooling a bit, but most of the region should be below freezing by morning. Our warmest temperatures should be in northeast Arkansas. Surface high pressure and a weak ridge building across the area will keep the Midsouth dry and clear for the next several days. Our next chance of rain is expected Friday night into Saturday, but for now it looks like rain will be mainly confined to north Mississippi.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Dry weather is expected to continue across the Mid-South for much of this week. Temperatures will be on the chilly side tonight with lows Monday morning in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Temperatures will start to moderate on Monday and remain to near normal levels for Tuesday through Friday. Scattered showers will return into the region for next weekend as a low pressure system track across the Gulf of Mexico.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. High pressure is centered over southwest Texas at this time with north winds over the region bringing colder air into Mid-South.

As the surface moves east tonight into northern Louisiana by Monday morning, winds will be light overnight. The combination of clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to be quite chilly with lows Monday morning in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. The surface high moves into northeast Mississippi on Monday. Winds will become more southerly allowing temperatures to moderate some with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. With the surface high over the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning, dry weather will continue with temperatures continuing to slowly moderate Monday night.

High pressure will remain over the eastern U.S. for Tuesday through Friday. Dry weather will continue with for this period with temperatures returning to near normal. A low pressure system will track across the Gulf Coast over the weekend. Scattered rain showers are possible across the Mid-South starting Friday night and continuing for much of Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR. Mostly calm overnight. South winds increasing near 6 knots tomorrow afternoon.

AC3

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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