Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low centered near St. Louis, with a trough axis extending to the Arklatex. 00Z regional upper air soundings showed PWAT values have decreased to 1.7 inches, as drier midlevel air had entrained into the upper trough. Though reduced, these PWAT values are near the 75th climatological percentile and are more than adequate for flash flooding. 00Z HRRR depicts the MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg from east central AR through north MS late this afternoon where greatest storm coverage is expected. Areas outside of north MS may see a break from storms tonight, as the boundary layer stabilizes and weak midlevel shortwave ridging builds in from the north.

A weak amplitude upper level trough will remain over the lower MS River Valley Sunday through Tuesday, as PWAT increases to over 2 inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, with flash flooding and strong winds possible during the daylight hours.

The western U.S. upper ridge/heat dome that was expected to arrive midweek will be delayed by a progressive upper level trough lifting through the Great Plains and Midwest. An associated cold front will sag into the Midsouth late Wednesday night into Thursday, providing a focus for thunderstorm development. Wednesday afternoon will still likely be hot, with prefrontal moisture driving heat indices the upper 90s.

Following Thursday's storms, the front will wash out on Friday as a 594 dam 500mb ridge over the southern plains expands eastward.
By Saturday, global model consensus shows the upper ridge amplifying over the lower and middle MS River Valley, with 500 mb heights reaching 595 dam. Mid 90s high temps are forecast for Saturday along with mid 70s dewpoints. This will likely drive heat indices over 100 over much of the Midsouth.

PWB

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across mainly the southern half of the Mid-South overnight and into Saturday morning. A second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the region from late Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. VFR ceilings will start out the forecast period with periods of MVFR ceilings around the thunderstorms that develop. South winds at 5 to 10 knots overnight shifting to the southwest by Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High humidity and light winds will prevail through the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Hot and humid conditions are forecast for late next week, along with very light winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.