Engelhard, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Engelhard, NC

June 20, 2024 1:08 AM EDT (05:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 6:34 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 1258 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Rest of tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Fri - E winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sat - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.

Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.

Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1258 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure dominates but swell from a distant tropical wave and prolonged easterly winds will result in gradual deteriorating offshore conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 200505 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 105 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to extend across the Carolinas with coastal troughing noted as well through Friday. This may bring some showers to the region into the weekend. A steady increase in heat and humidity is expected over the next several days with "feels like" temperatures potentially reaching the triple digits on Sunday. Next threat for appreciable rain comes early next week with a frontal passage.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 915 PM Wed...No changes to previous thinking. Latest surface analysis continues to show high pressure ridging west from the Atlantic across the Mid- Atlantic tonight with a weak coastal trough noted just off of the Carolina Coast. The aforementioned coastal trough has resulted in some surface convergence across our offshore waters and around portions of the OBX resulting in some very isolated sprinkles. But, given the isolated nature of this precip and the amount of dry air across the region, this activity is not expected to strengthen, or increase in coverage or intensity so will keep the forecast precip free.

As we get into tonight, high pressure will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic keeping things dry across ENC. However, with continued weak E'rly flow low level moisture will continue to increase resulting in a scattered to potentially broken deck of mid and low level clouds across portions of ENC. This will once again cap any potential fog threat. HRRR probs for vis of less than 5 miles is less than 10% across ENC which re-enforces this thought.
Mild overnight temps return ranging from the low-mid 60s across the inner coastal plain to upper 60s to low 70s along the OBX.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 4 PM Wednesday... We continue to see onshore E'rly flow, weak coastal troughing, and weak WAA across the area. Though latest Hi-Res guidance has backed off precip chances across the region as it looks like stubborn dry air will remain over much of ENC. Even if we do see a stray shower or two from the aforementioned coastal troughing amounts would be very light, generally a trace to maybe a hundredth of an inch and given the uncertainty with precip actually falling opted to keep ENC precip free for Thurs. Otherwise, Thurs should be the last day of near normal temperatures thanks to lower thicknesses in the continued easterly low-mid level flow.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

- Elevated fire weather concerns continue into this weekend

- Building heat and humidity this weekend into early next week

- Increased thunderstorm risk early next week

Synoptic Summary: Surface and upper level ridging are forecast to remain in place through the end of the work week. Ridging then begins to break down over the weekend and into next week as upper level troughing develops from the Great Lakes into the Eastern U.S.

Friday-Sunday: Medium range guidance continue to insist that the upper level pattern will begin to change during this time. As upper level ridging breaks down, and as the surface high shifts offshore, a moistening return flow is forecast to develop. Within this flow, low-level thicknesses will begin to increase as well. This will lead to a steady increase in the heat and humidity, starting Friday, and most likely peaking on Sunday. By Sunday, dewpoints in the 70 and highs in the 90s is expected to support "feels like" temperatures rising into the 100-105 degree range. This has been consistently supported by both deterministic and ensemble guidance, and we'll plan to begin messaging this impact in the HWO and other public- facing products.

Despite increasing moisture, warm temps aloft will support a notable cap through at least Saturday. This combined with limited forcing should keep the risk of showers and thunderstorms at a minimum. Any chance of showers should be confined to the daily seabreeze. On Sunday, less of a cap is expected, and we should see a little more activity on the seabreeze (but probably still isolated in coverage).

Lastly, a tightening pressure gradient within the developing lee- trough will support increasing south to southwest winds by Sunday.
Ensemble guidance suggests dewpoints will mix out across the coastal plain as the winds and mixing increase, and this seems reasonable given the dry pattern of late, and very dry soils. With this in mind, the overlap of lower RH and breezy conditions should support a continued elevated fire weather risk.

Monday-Wednesday: Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a moderate to strong signal for deeper moisture reaching Eastern NC within the continued southerly low-mid level flow. This in tandem with the seabreeze, a glancing shortwave, and possibly a cold front dropping into the area is expected to support an increased thunderstorm risk, especially on Monday. The overlap of moderate instability and modest deep layer shear could also support a marginal severe thunderstorm risk.

Dewpoints are expected to peak during this time, with a subsequent peak in humidity values. Afternoon highs are less certain, though, due to the potential for increased convective activity. However, given the boundary layer moisture in place, "feels like" temperatures could make a run at 100+ where sufficient heating can occur. Right now, Monday looks to carry the greatest risk of heat- related impacts.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...VFR conditions persist. Light easterly winds will carry us through the night and continue to increase our moisture. This will present another opportunity for low to mid level stratus to develop across the area with a low but non-zero threat of brief MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will lift in the morning and make way for diurnal cu in the afternoon. A better fog setup will be in place at the end of this TAF period/beginning of the 12Z period given clear skies and decoupling winds overnight.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

- Sub VFR CIGs possible (40-60% chance) along the coast Thursday

- Breezy southerly winds Sunday and Monday

- Increased TSRA risk Monday

A moist easterly flow may continue to support isolated SHRA activity along the coast on Thursday, along with SCT/BKN low CIGs . This appears most likely along the coast, with less of a risk inland.
Drier air then works back in Friday into Saturday, with less of a risk of SHRA or sub-VFR conditions. Breezy southerly winds are likely Sunday into Monday (60-80% chance). Increasing moisture within the southerly flow is also expected to lead to an increased TSRA risk, especially by Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 915 PM Wed...5 to 15 kt E'rly winds with occasional gusts up around 20 kts and 3-5 ft seas currently persist across our waters this evening. With high pressure remaining the dominant feature across ENC through Thurs winds will continue to remain E'rly at 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts at times. There will be some weak coastal troughing noted through Thurs as well which could kick off some very isolated showers, however confidence is not high enough in this activity to include in the forecast.
The primary concern the next 24 hours is for elevated easterly wind swell which the wave models bring to 6 ft tonight over the extreme outer (>15 nm) central and southern waters. The NBM is the most extensive and persistent with these seas while the NWPS has the least coverage and shortest duration of the swell. Will continue current SCA as seas have built to 6 ft at the 30 mile and 5 ft at the Diamond Shoals buoys. The 5-6 ft seas should persist along our Gulf Stream waters into Thurs afternoon before subsiding to 3-5 ft late.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 230 AM Wednesday...

- Elevated wind and seas possible Sunday - Monday (40-60% chance)

- Increased thunderstorm risk on Monday

Continued easterly flow is expected to continue to support seas of 4- 6 ft on Thursday. Seas then slowly lay down to 2-4 ft as we move into the weekend thanks to a weakening of the easterly flow. Light south winds of 5-15 kt Friday and Saturday increase to 15-25kt Sunday into Monday, along with seas once again building to 4-6 ft. A few showers will be possible on Thursday, and again on Monday. The greatest risk of thunderstorms is expected Sunday night into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 4 PM Wed...While we will have a bit more moisture across the region tomorrow with RH's only getting down into the 40-45% range (primarily away from the coast), given the continued dry airmass, dry fuels across the area, and continued E'rly breezes these conditions continue to remain noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi50 minESE 4.1G6 74°F 81°F30.35
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi50 minESE 8.9G12 78°F 81°F30.33
44095 38 mi42 min 75°F4 ft
44086 40 mi42 min 76°F5 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi50 minESE 9.9G12 76°F 30.32
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 42 mi42 min 76°F3 ft
41120 48 mi68 min 82°F5 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi38 min 76°F 76°F4 ft


Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMQI26 sm23 minSE 0310 smClear73°F66°F78%30.32
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Wind History graph: MQI
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Tide / Current for Old House Channel, North Carolina
   
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Old House Channel
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Wed -- 01:50 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
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Wed -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Morehead City, NC,




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