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AMZ131 Alligator River- 1025 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, increasing to very rough after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves flat.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1025 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing strong winds and dangerous marine conditions to all area waterways. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc though the rest of the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 101516 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1016 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing several hazardous impacts today and tonight. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1000 AM Sun...No major changes made with this update.
Updated PoPs with the most recent guidance, accounting for higher coverage precipitation along the hwy 17 corridor through the afternoon.

Previous Discussion
As of 7 AM Sun
Low level moisture advection is increasing this morning as a strong cold front crosses the Appalachians and height falls aloft begin to accelerate. Scattered to widespread showers have now overspread most coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras, and likely likely continue for at least the next several hours as the LLJ arrives and moisture convergence continues.

By late morning/midday, expect the main axis of showers to be along the coast, with very modest instability possibly bringing a few rumbles of thunder as well. Coverage of storms inland midday is less certain, with the coastal convection potentially disrupting moisture advection somewhat, but with very strong low level shear and likely around 500 K/kg of MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg max) developing, a few stronger convective elements could develop within the mainly scattered showers, with damaging wind gusts the primary concern in the strongest storms, though strong low level helicity means that a brief/weak tornado cant be ruled out either. PWAT values near records for this time of year will also bring the potential for torrential downpours in the strongest storms, and localized flooding issues for poor drainage areas are possible.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 430 AM Sunday...As late afternoon/early evening rolls around, a weak wave developing within the front will bring a modest enhancement to lift, with precip coverage increasing to widespread and a few stronger storms potentially producing damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado still possible mainly near the coast, with instability very limited inland after sunset. Overall QPF will be greatest along the coast as well, with several inches of rainfall bringing the continues threat for localized minor flooding issues for poor drainage areas.

Then, late tonight, another wave will develop within the front as it moves into the Coastal Plain, bringing an injection of frontogenesis and supercharging the southerly low level jet.
The front will race across the area from about midnight to 5 AM.
Ahead of the front, the LLJ will reach 60+ kt, with convective elements along the front potentially mixing this strong wind to the surface as it crosses the area. Then, behind the front, rapid pressure and temp drops will occur, with strong winds within 1-2 hrs after frontal passage and the potential for temp drops of 15-20+ deg within an hour of frontal passage. Though short-lived, this brief period of strong wind necessitates Wind Advisories for most areas near the coast and will produce coastal flooding issues as well. See the COASTAL FLOODING section for more info.

Low level moisture lingers behind the front, and precip chances continue for most until around sunrise, when rapid deep drying occurs. Temps will plummet through the early morning hours, with lows reaching the 30s by daybreak inland.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Sun...

Mon...Upper level trough will be over the Eastern Seaboard with a departing jet streak noted to the north of ENC to start our Monday morning. This trough will slowly push NE'wards away from the Mid-Atlantic through the day. At the surface, cold front will be offshore to start the period and push further into the Atlantic as surface ridging builds in quickly from the west.
10-20 mph W-NW'rly winds with gusts in excess of 25 mph will be ongoing across areas away from the coast with higher winds across the OBX and beaches as the gradient remains tight Mon morning. Winds will diminish as the day goes on as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic and the gradient relaxes. SChc PoP's will be possible along the OBX to start the day out before skies clear across the entire CWA from west to east and precip chances quickly end by late morning. Highs don't change much from the morning temps only getting into the low 50s across ENC while lows Mon night get down into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and around 40 across the OBX.

Tue into the end of the week... Upper level pattern becomes more zonal as an upper level trough digs into the western CONUS this week. At the surface high pressure will remain over the Eastern Seaboard from Tuesday on into the end of the week with a dry cold front passing through the area on Wednesday. With a dry airmass in place over ENC through the week dont expect any precip chances but some high clouds will be possible with the frontal passage on Wed. Temps will remain about average to slightly below avg each day with highs in the upper 40s to 50s and lows in the upper 20s to 30s.

The weekend...The next impactful low pressure system for ENC potentially nears the area next weekend. Still too much variability with regards to upper level pattern, surface low placement, and speed of the system so leaving just a mention in the AFD for now and kept PoP's over the weekend at SChc to low end Chc at best Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1000 AM Sun...Amended TAFs to be predominantly MVFR for all terminals, with TEMPO IFR to account for lower ceilings and visibilities that come with showers moving through the region.

Previous Discussion
As of 7 AM Sun
Some IFR ceilings have developed early this morning, but even modest heating now that the sun is up is expected to dissipate these lower ceilings in short order. Thereafter, VFR prevails as strong WAA ensues through the rest of the day, though ample low level moisture and scattered to widespread showers will bring the threat for at least occasional MVFR ceilings at any point during the day.
Increasing winds on tap as a cold front works across the western portion of the state, with gusts approaching 30 kt outside showers/storms. A few storms could also become strong to severe this afternoon, with heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado the greatest risks.

Tonight, the front will cross the area front west to east, bringing very strong winds and an abrupt wind shift from south to west or northwest shortly after midnight. Additionally, there is potential for a few stronger storms to mix very strong 850 mb flow to the surface, with gusty winds prevailing both ahead of and immediately behind the cold front. There is increasing signal for MVFR ceilings prevailing after sunset, potentially becoming IFR along and immediately behind the front as low level moisture lingers above the shallow front.
Additionally, immediately behind frontal passage, low level wind shear is possible across much of the area for a couple of hours.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat... Gusty W-NW'rly winds will be ongoing across ENC Mon morning with widespread 20+ kt wind gusts expected.
Winds quickly diminish by Mon afternoon and light winds are expected thereafter as high pressure ridge overspreads the Mid- Atlantic. Sub VFR conditions will be possible mainly along the OBX and eastern beaches to start the period as a strong cold front quickly exits off the coast Mon morning but then expect primarily VFR conditions from late Mon morning to the end of the period with clear skies forecast as ridging builds overhead.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sun...A very strong cold front approaching from the west will bring deteriorating conditions through the day, with southerly pre-frontal winds reaching gale strength at least over the coastal waters this afternoon, and scattered to widespread storms bringing an additional threat for strong winds and waterspouts. Wave heights will also increase steadily through the day as southerly windswell builds.

A 60+ kt LLJ will move over the waters tonight ahead of the strong cold front, bringing a brief window of storm force winds to the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras mainly beyond 10 nm offshore. Elsewhere, gales prevail, with at least a few gusts to near storm force possible as winds abruptly shift N to NW for the larger bodies of water along and immediately behind the strong cold front that crosses the waters after midnight. Seas peak around 10-16 ft through the predawn hours Monday, making for extremely dangerous conditions for mariners.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat... There will be ongoing gales across our coastal waters with strong small craft conditions likely across the inland waters to start Mon morning as gusty W-NW'rly winds and 6-9 ft seas persist behind a departing strong cold front Monday morning. Winds quickly ease and become N'rly by Monday afternoon falling to 5-10 kts and remain light through Wed morning. In response to the weakening winds, seas will also quickly lower through the day Mon with seas falling to 4-6 ft by Mon night and then 3-5 ft by Tuesday. A dry cold front will then track S across our waters Wed night into Thursday bringing the next threat for small craft conditions with 10-20 kt N'rly winds and 25+ kt gusts as the associated N'rly surge behind the cold front impacts our waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 5 AM Mon...A very strong cold front will cross coastal areas after midnight tonight. Gusty S winds ahead of the front will abruptly shift W to NW through the early morning hours, piling water up along the soundside Outer Banks, especially from Salvo to Nags Head and across Roanoke Island. While the max water level are likely to reach minor flood stage, be prepared for rapid water level rises (to near 3 ft/hr) as a brief period of very strong W to NW winds and rapid pressure falls occur immediately behind the front. A short-duration Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the soundside OBX north of Cape Hatteras Accordingly.

Additionally, large southerly windswell will build through the day today, peaking early Monday morning, with surf height reaching 6-10 ft from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout tonight, with a High Surf Advisory in effect accordingly.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Monday for NCZ047-081-203.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ195-196-204-205.
High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ196-204-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-135>137-150-230-231.
Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ158.

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Old House Channel
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Sun -- 12:05 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:09 AM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:04 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:26 PM EST     0.59 feet High Tide
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Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Davis Slough
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Sun -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
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Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,