Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Engelhard, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) A storm system will bring a cold rain to the area Sunday, and there remains a chance that rain mixes with or changes to snow at the end of precipitation for Coastal Plain zones. However, with temps above freezing no accumulations or impacts are expected.

2) Any remainging wet roads or bridges will freeze Sunday night into the Monday morning commute, as temperatures fall through the 20s late Sunday night.

3) Another Arctic blast expected early through mid next week with lows and wind chills in the teens Monday through Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning coldst day of the week with lows in the teens all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

DISCUSSION
As of 2 PM Sat...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep upper trough in the Deep South all the way to the GOM will pivot eastward Sunday, with a weak surface low expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast moving northeastward late Sunday. Despite checking several boxes for wintry weather across the Carolinas, especially a lack of cold air in place, will keep precipitation from this system as a cold rain for most of the day Sunday. Rain may mix with or change to snow before ending acrs the Coastal Plain but surface temps will still be above freezing and no accumulations or impacts are expected.

The much needed rain will start late tonight towards dawn Sunday morning, then rapidly increase in coverage across ENC through the day with deep isentropic ascent in place. Rainfall amounts of 1/2"-1" are expected, which may only put a slight dent in the severe drought now in place, but any wetting rain is more than welcome at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains some potential for the development of black ice overnight into the Mon AM commute time if heavier rainfall totals are seen and leave wet roads and bridges, as temps will crash hard into the 20s overnight. First ones to ice up will be bridges and overpasses.

Key Message 3...

Another Arctic blast is expected behind the front, leading to well below normal temps Monday through Wednesday. Low temps will reach the low 20s, and when factoring in wind chills it will feel like the teens each morning. We will be close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Tuesday morning (wind chills), and Wednesday morning (air temps). Wed morning is the coldes with high pressure directly overhead with lows in the teens areas away from the immediate coast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Given the latest trends in guidance and observations, expecting VFR conditions to persist across the TAF terminals and ENC as a whole for much of the next 18-24 hours. Coastal trough currently located offshore continues to produce scattered showers. But, all of this activity is forecast to remain offshore so any potential MVFR threat associated with this activity for the OBX is minimal at best. By this afternoon and evening, high and mid clouds will be on the increase behind a cold front that will stall just off the coast tonight allowing for coastal low development late tonight. Clouds continue to lower throughout the overnight hours and potentially reach MVFR levels (2-3kft) as early as 9-12Z Sun morning across all terminals. Further reductions to IFR ceilings look likely by mid morning Sun as well.

SW'rly winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts are forecast this morning. Winds then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts Sat afternoon before becoming light and variable once again tonight.

Outlook: A weak low pressure system and cold front couple to produce rain Sunday into Sunday evening, with the potential for some snowflakes to mix in briefly Sunday evening, especially for ISO/PGV. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with this system, but confidence is increasing that snow will not result in any impacts. Dry high pressure returns Monday, bringing a return to VFR conditions across all of ENC through mid week.

MARINE
As of 2 PM Sat...
Small craft conditions over the gulf waters from Oregon Inlet to C Lookout through early evening thanks to strong and gusty W to SW winds (25+ kts) ahead of a frontal system. Sub SCA winds below 20 kt expected eleswhere as WAA inc over stable marine layer.

Winds temporarily subside tonight as a cold front crosses the region, but NW winds pick up again Sunday afternoon through evening to 15-25 kts (30 kt Gulf waters), and a brief period of Small Craft conditions will be possible esp coastal waters s of Oregon Inlet.

Outlook: Arctic high pressure builds over the waters with lighter winds of 10-20 kt expected through Wednesday with seas 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154-156.