Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Engelhard, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 8:59 AM EDT (12:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 5:42AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC
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location: 35.65, -76.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 071120 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak boundary over the area will lift north of the area later this this morning. Much warmer conditions will then prevail through midweek ahead of a mainly dry cold front that will move through the area Thursday. A stronger low pressure area and cold front may impact the region later this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 700 AM Tues . Areas of fog have developed this morning, and expect fog to be locally dense over the next hour or so, before burning off.

Similar conditions to yesterday expected today, with high pressure offshore and and upper level ridge to the SW. However, some drier air aloft will limit the development of thunderstorms, with just widely scattered convection expected, which should remain contained to the northern half of the area. Could again see a few severe thunderstorms, with good wind shear present and around 1000 J/kg of CAPE to work with.

Temperatures will reach the low to even mid 80s inland, as low level heights build, and into the low to mid 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 AM Tues . Breezy conditions, and moist SW winds, will lead to a mild night across the area. Expect lows mostly in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 AM Tue . Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through the middle of the week, with a moisture-starved cold frontal passage late Thursday bringing a cool-off Friday into Saturday. There is increasing confidence in the next storm system impacting the area beginning Sunday.

Wednesday . A weak shortwave crossing the Mid-Atlantic will spawn a weak surface low during the day Wednesday before moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast in the evening. While most of the day will be dry locally, owing to overall lack of moisture, scattered thunderstorms along the VA Blue Ridge could result in an outflow/pseudo-cold front that the surface low will usher into eastern NC in the late afternoon, crossing through the evening. A few isolated storms could develop along this boundary, especially if it interacts with any lingering sea breeze boundary. Ongoing WAA and sunny skies through the morning will allow temps to climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, developing 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to go with the ~30 kt of bulk shear in place. Thus, despite modest coverage, and storms that do develop will have the potential to become strong to severe, with hail and damaging winds being the primary concern.

Any storms that do form will wane with cooling Wednesday night, and dry conditions ensue by the late night hours. Clearing skies and calm winds late will lead to efficient radiational cooling and shallow fog is possible, especially for any locations that received rainfall.

Thursday through Saturday . Subsidence aloft and southwest low level flow will once again bring warm and mainly dry conditions on Thursday. Low level thickness values support highs returning into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations reaching 90 not out of the question.

A moisture-starved cold front will approach from the west and cross the area late Thursday. While there will be an increase in cloud cover with the front, the lack of deep layer moisture keeps a dry forecast in place, with the much more significant impact of the cold front being the noticeable airmass chance.

High pressure building into the area will keep dry conditions in place Friday and Saturday, with temps below normal both days. Efficient radiational cooling is expected Friday night, with lows dipping into the 30s, and the potential for frost, away from the beaches Saturday morning.

Sunday and Monday . The end of the forecast period is becoming a bit more clear as global guidance is converging on a solution of low pressure developing over the south central US and lifting inland of the area early Sunday into Monday. This would keep us in the warm sector of the system, with deep moisture transport indicating the potential for a wet period, with the severe threat dependent on the track of the low.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Wednesday Morning/ . As of 700 AM Tues . A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions will continue this morning, as widespread fog has developed, with visibilities of a 1/2 mile in some spots across the coastal plain. Conditions should greatly improve after 9 AM, and have VFR conditions returning for the rest of the period.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tue . VFR prevails through the long term, though a warm and humid airmass could prompt the development of some early morning radiation fog Thursday morning. Southwesterly flow will be breezy during the days Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front that will arrive late Thursday, ushering in lighter northwesterly flow that will then prevail into the weekend.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 320 AM Tues . Conditions are still relatively calm as the atmosphere recovers from a line of convection that passed through the waters last night. However seas remain 6-7 ft across the southern and central waters and are expected to linger at these levels today. Have extended the SCA, and with another surge of SW winds expected tonight the SCA will now go through tomorrow night

Expect winds to slowly ramp up through the day, becoming SW 10-15 kts by the afternoon. Winds then strengthen to 15-25 kts overnight with seas building to 5-8 ft.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 330 AM Tues . Breezy southwesterly flow prevails into Thursday night as a weak low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday and a cold front approaches from the west Thursday. Winds become moderate northwest Friday before trending lighter on Saturday as high pressure moves overhead.

Southerly windswell keeps elevated seas, around 4-7 ft, in place through Wednesday night, with SCAs for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet in place accordingly. Seas then subside to 2-4 ft for most of the waters Thursday into the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 7 AM Tue . A perigean spring tide will bring elevated tidal levels today through the end of the week. Minor inundation of very low lying areas is possible around the times of primarily the evening high tide cycles, especially near inlets and along the beaches.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-044- 045-079-080-091-092-193. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . SGK/CB MARINE . SGK/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 27 mi48 min E 4.1 G 6 58°F 61°F1016.1 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi42 min S 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 1016.3 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 55°F 1015.1 hPa
FRFN7 40 mi180 min 3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi30 min 55°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi30 min 51°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC26 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F91%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmS4S8S9NE6N7NE8NE12
G18
E12E6E3E3E5E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE10N7N8E8NE7NE9E8E7E8E7SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4SW5SW7W5W6SW4SW3
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NE10NE8NE7N8NE8NE9NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:58 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.40.60.80.80.70.60.40.2-0-0.1-0.10.10.30.60.80.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:42 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.100.30.70.9110.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.1-00.30.60.91.11.110.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.