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FXUS64 KOHX 042018 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 218 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A shortwave cruised by the area this morning producing some showers and even a little pea size hail along the northern plateau. That was has passed by but a weak cold front is still located south of the Ohio River with ample cloud cover over the northwest half of the CWA. That front will move through this evening with winds shifting to the northwest. That wind shift will be temporary however as winds back to the SW on Tuesday ahead of another clipper system that will brush the area Tuesday night. A few light showers will be possible after sunset Tuesday evening with slightly higher PoPs along the plateau after Wed 03z.
Ensembles show there is a small chance of some snow flakes mixing in after 06z on the plateau. Surface temperatures will remain at or above freezing and no accumulations are expected.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Tuesday night's clipper system will drag a cold front through the area with cooler conditions expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will stay in the 40s areawide on Wednesday. The chilly weather will be short-lived as southerly flow returns on Thursday with highs closer to normal again in the 50s. Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday and Saturday as the low level southerly flow continues ahead of the strongest system of the forecast. A trough will eject out of the northwest CONUS on Friday with a surface low developing sometime on Friday or Friday night. There are some differences with the trough which will affect the timing and location of the surface cyclogenesis. Generally, models have showers coming into our area on Saturday and lingering on Sunday.
Depending on the magnitude of the wave, there are some members showing enough cold air and enough moisture with the upper level low for our area to potential see some snow showers on the back side of the system. There is very low confidence is this as models have some major differences to work out with the upper trough.
Most solution do have Middle Tennessee picking up a nice soaking rain with the weekend system which will hopefully keep chipping away our below normal precipitation.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Breezy conditions expected during the daylight hours today as a departing system keeps a moderate LLJ overhead. As the sun sets and the jet departs winds will quickly diminish. Increasing clouds expected today, but should remain in the VFR category.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 37 57 38 48 / 0 10 10 0 Clarksville 36 56 36 47 / 0 20 10 0 Crossville 33 49 31 40 / 0 10 30 10 Columbia 35 57 36 48 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 36 51 35 42 / 0 20 30 10 Jamestown 35 48 33 40 / 10 20 30 10 Lawrenceburg 35 56 36 47 / 0 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 35 57 36 47 / 0 10 10 0 Waverly 35 55 35 47 / 0 10 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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