Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

No change from previous discussion. Warm temperatures and rain showers continue today and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are moving over Middle TN late this morning as a short wave trough produces just enough forcing for weak thunderstorms. This activity will continue through the evening. Although these storms are not severe, there is a decent amount of moisture associated with them. With the increased available moisture, PWs are around 1.25-1.50 inches. There is also little to no shear, so storms are very slow moving. These two factors are causing some localized flooding concerns, mainly over urban areas and low lying/poor drainage areas. Through the afternoon, some storms could manage to strengthen as daytime heating allows for more available energy, similar to what we saw Wednesday afternoon.

Shower activity will continue overnight and into Friday as a shortwave ejects over the region. Shear still looks to remain on the low side with less than 25 knots and lapse rates remain around 5-6 C/km. This will once again keep the severe risk on the low side but still can't rule out an isolated stronger storm with hail being the main concern. PWs also remain high so heavy rain is likely and could bring some localized flooding. Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Friday night as the boundary slowly works southeast.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

The short wave finally works it's way out of the area through Saturday with some lingering showers and thunderstorms sticking around the afternoon. A drying period will return with some help from ridging aloft. By Monday, high temperatures warm back into the upper 80s through mid next week. Some locations could even see high temperatures near or exceed daily high temperatures records by Tuesday. Next chance for storms will come Wednesday as a cold front looks to move through Middle TN. This will keep rain chances up through the end of the week. Right now, severe weather chances look marginal with less than 1000 J/kg CAPE, 35 kts of mean 0-500mb shear, and dewpoints in the low 60s. At this time, SPC has issued a day 6, 15 percent severe weather outlook situated to our NW across SE Missouri where better parameters exists. We will see how this potential pivots as we go into next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Scattered showers with a few storms continue across western Middle TN this evening. While this activity will likely continue overnight, however, confidence is low with any impacts at specific terminals. Ceilings will likely drop to IFR cigs at all terminals between 12Z and 14Z. Conditions will be slow to improve as another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms moves into the area thereafter, continuing through the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 64 78 63 76 / 40 90 50 50 Clarksville 63 77 60 73 / 50 90 50 20 Crossville 58 71 58 72 / 50 90 70 70 Columbia 61 77 62 77 / 40 90 40 50 Cookeville 60 73 61 72 / 50 100 70 70 Jamestown 59 72 59 71 / 50 90 70 70 Lawrenceburg 61 76 62 76 / 40 90 40 40 Murfreesboro 61 77 61 76 / 40 90 50 50 Waverly 62 76 61 74 / 50 90 40 20

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.