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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN

June 25, 2024 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 11:19 PM   Moonset 9:08 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, TN
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Area Discussion for - Nashville, TN
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743 FXUS64 KOHX 251120 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024


(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Clear skies with temperatures ranging mid 60s to mid 70s prevailing across mid state region just after top of the hour.
Dry conditions will continue to prevail through evening hours tonight. Surface high pressure influences will continue shifting eastward, with upper level ridging influences building across our area. This will result in high temperatures by afternoon hours today to be in mid to upper 90s across most locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region, upper 80s to lower 90s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. With more of a southerly low level atmospheric flow regime, increased afternoon humidity level expected, with locations approaching TN River Valley Region with afternoon heat index values up to around 105 degrees. Not enough confidence presently to believe enough of this area will be equal to or greater than 105 degrees to warrant issuance of heat advisory product, but if temperatures/dewpoint values go higher than currently forecasted, that could quickly change. Will defer to the day crew and their interpretation of latest temperature/dewpoint trends as morning into afternoon hours progress for potential issuance of a heat advisory product.

As upper level ridging influences begin to break down as tonight progresses, and an upper level shortwave approaches western portions of mid state region late, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east as day progresses, with best chance of showers and thunderstorms during the Wednesday afternoon hours. Most favorable CAMs model sounding profiles and derived indices for potential of a few strong to pulse severe thunderstorm development show MU CAPE values around 3,000 J/KG, around 6.5 C/KM low to mid level lapse rates, Total Totals in lower 50s, PW values approaching 1.75 inches, LI`s around -9, but not a lot of atmospheric shear of note. Latest SPC Day 2 Outlook continues to keep mid state under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Lows tonight will continue the muggy trend of late ranging in low to mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Wednesday will be dependent on actual shower/thunderstorm coverage, but most areas will experience highs in low to mid 90s.

(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern portions of mid state region Wednesday night as upper level troughing influences move over this area with a north to south cold frontal passage expected also. Temperatures will back down to near seasonal values for Wednesday night into Thursday with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances mainly confined to eastern and southern portions of our area. Other than some isolated showers and thunderstorms being possible across highest elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region on Friday afternoon due to orographic lifting mechanisms, dry conditions will prevail across our area Thursday night through Friday Night. Surface high pressure influences centered across Great Lakes Region shortly after sunrise on Thursday morning with shift into New England area as this period progresses, with initial quasi ridging influences aloft being replaced by a more progressive southwesterly flow aloft pattern as Saturday progresses. Most of eastern CONUS will be in warm sector of developing synoptic surface frontal system ushering in once again low level atmospheric southerly flow with high temperatures once again in mid to upper 90s west of Cumberland Plateau Region. This weather pattern will be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, and depending on actual coverage, it looks like most locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region will have heat index values within heat advisory ranges by Saturday afternoon and possible again on Sunday afternoon. Another surface frontal passage will occur as day progresses on Sunday, leading to influences of surface high pressure influences to our north providing slightly cooler temperatures, but still continuing seasonably warm, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms once again possible during afternoon hours on Monday.

(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Light and variable winds will become south-southwesterly this morning, then most likely light and variable again tonight. No VIS restrictions anticipated or clouds even. VFR all the way.

Nashville 98 74 95 72 / 0 10 60 60 Clarksville 96 74 91 69 / 0 10 70 40 Crossville 90 67 91 65 / 0 0 40 60 Columbia 97 71 97 70 / 0 0 60 60 Cookeville 92 70 91 68 / 0 10 40 60 Jamestown 91 69 91 67 / 0 10 40 60 Lawrenceburg 96 71 95 69 / 0 0 50 60 Murfreesboro 98 71 97 70 / 0 0 60 60 Waverly 97 73 92 69 / 0 10 70 50


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KRNC WARREN COUNTY MEML,TN 1 sm5 mincalm10 smClear88°F59°F38%30.00
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