Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Record temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft. A surface boundary is lurking not far to our northwest, but it will be another 48 hours or so before the cold front actually comes through Middle Tennessee. In the meantime, we expect convection to begin developing by early afternoon today and continue into the evening owing to the close proximity of the surface boundary, existing atmospheric instability and record precipitable water values for this date. Most of the convection will remain north of I-40, and QPF values overall are quite modest, although isolated spots could receive brief, heavy rainfall. Fortunately, the risk of any severe storms remains very low. The primary impact today and tomorrow is going to be the heat. Temperatures tomorrow will likely be even warmer than today's as warm air piles up against the surface boundary as it crawls toward Middle Tennessee.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We expect fropa to occur in Middle Tennessee on Friday, after which there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures. In fact, the drop will be so dramatic that some frost might actually occur Sunday morning along the Cumberland Plateau and other cool spots.
Friday's fropa will be a dry one, with the exception of a few showers Friday and Friday night across portions of the Cumberland Plateau. After that, rain chances going forward are non-existent for the remainder of the 7-day forecast. Temperatures next week will rebound somewhat, but will remain pleasant and autumn-like.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The TAF period will begin with a band of thunderstorms in northwest Middle TN, impacting CKV with periods of heavy downpours and gusty winds around 30KT through 02Z. These storms will weaken as they push eastward. Short range models keep most of the cells north of BNA and MQY, so these sites will be coded with VCTS 01-04Z.

Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the taf period with south southwest winds mostly less than 10KT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 70 92 66 74 / 30 10 0 0 Clarksville 69 92 62 69 / 60 10 0 10 Crossville 64 84 62 75 / 20 10 0 10 Columbia 68 93 65 77 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 67 87 64 74 / 20 10 0 10 Jamestown 66 86 65 74 / 20 10 0 20 Lawrenceburg 66 90 63 78 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 68 92 65 77 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 69 90 63 68 / 40 10 0 10

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.