Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM   Moonset 1:56 AM

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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 348 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers late. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and ne 4 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 9 seconds and ne 4 ft at 5 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Mon - N winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 5 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Tue - NE winds around 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wed night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 348 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 171905 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 305 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. That low will impact the area through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 PM Friday...

17z/1pm surface analysis reveals a weak area of low pressure over central NC, with a subtle confluence zone/surface boundary stretching southeast from the low to the Crystal Coast. The combination of this boundary, the seabreeze, and the exit region of an approaching upper jet will continue to favor isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least early this evening. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-40kt through the afternoon, but instability will remain on the lower side (MLCAPE ~500j/kg). This shear/instability combo isn't overly supportive of severe weather, but if any taller, more sustained core can develop, there would be a risk of gusty winds of 30-50 mph. For the area at large, the risk of severe weather appears to be LOW (<5% chance) through this evening.

Later this evening through tonight, a modest southwesterly LLJ is forecast to develop across the Carolinas, which should encourage the above-mentioned surface boundary to begin lifting north as a warm front. Some guidance also suggests a weak low may develop along the northward-moving boundary. Generally- speaking, this will lead to increased low-level forcing through the night. Additionally, a broad area of WAA and upper level diffluence will add some large-scale forcing for ascent.
Increased lift plus increasing low-mid level moisture advection is expected to favor an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially after midnight.

Elevated instability will increase to 250-500j/kg MUCAPE, which may support a few stronger elevated cores, but overall, the risk of severe weather continues to look LOW (<5% chance)
tonight. The deeper convection is expected to remain offshore through the night. Given the WAA pattern, temps will probably hold steady, or slowly rise, through the night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 PM Friday...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected on Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe

Synoptically, a warm front is forecast to lift north through ENC during the day, eventually stalling west to east across northern sections of ENC by the afternoon hours. Low pressure is then forecast to develop along the boundary, shifting southeast and offshore Saturday night. Aloft, a modest upper level jet is forecast to overspread the coastal Carolinas through the day and into the night.

While short-term guidance still differ on the convective evolution, there appears to be a general trend towards multiple rounds of convection Saturday into Saturday evening, with at least some risk of severe weather.

An initial round of thunderstorms is expected along the northward- moving warm front. Elevated instability increasing to around 500j/kg, plus effective shear of ~40kt may support a few stronger cores with some hail potential. However, it appears the severe weather risk will remain LOW (10-20% chance) for the area at large with this initial activity. If elevated instability ends up higher, the risk of hail and gusty winds would also increase.

Confidence then begins to lower as we move into the afternoon and evening hours. If sufficient breaks in the clouds can occur after the morning convection, and/or if sufficient low-mid level moistening occurs, there should be time for the airmass to recover ahead of the surface low forecast to develop along the west/east frontal boundary. During this time, the potential exists for moderate destabilization to occur along and south of the boundary, with MLCAPE topping out as high as 1000+ j/kg.
Additionally, deep layer shear of 40kt+ will be more than supportive of organized convection, including severe weather.

The forecast challenge, then, is will the airmass recover, and where will the greatest lift, and risk of severe weather, be focused. In general, I expect convection to redevelop, or strengthen, along the west/east boundary, with a tendency to shift back southeast towards the coast during the evening hours.
The synoptic pattern favors mostly a damaging wind and large hail risk during the afternoon and evening hours. However, right along the above-mentioned boundary, there could be a conditional tornado risk that materializes. Additionally, there will also be a concern for heavy rain/flash flooding if convection trains along the stalled frontal boundary, especially with a deep layer of moisture present, and storm motions parallel to the boundary. SPC has the southern half of our area in a Slight Risk of severe weather, which nicely matches with where I expect the above-mentioned boundary, and best overlap of shear/ instability, to reside.

Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and 80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out of the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. The low will push offshore Saturday night with northerly flow ensuing as high pressure begins to ridge southward across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring showers across the region.

Monday through Thursday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers early next week, especially along the coast, but otherwise expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Guidance is a bit slower with a mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaching the area which now looks to move across the area late Thursday, but moisture continues to appear limited with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated TSRA this afternoon

- Increasing risk of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions later tonight through Saturday

FORECAST DETAILS

SCT SHRA and isolated TSRA will impact the coastal plain of Eastern NC through early this evening. While brief, all SHRA/TSRA will be capable of sub-VFR conditions (mainly reduced VIS). I expect a break in the SHRA/TSRA this evening, followed by a steady increase in the risk late tonight into Saturday.
Increasing low-level moisture should also support an increased risk of sub-VFR CIGs . Confidence is moderate regarding how low CIGs will get tonight, and I currently have a mix of IFR/MVFR in the TAFs overnight. Where TSRA occur, reduced VIS can be expected, along with the potential for small hail (pea to half inch size).

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions through Sunday. Pred VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

A stalled front bisects the ENC coastal waters at this time, separating 10-15kt north winds from 5-15kt E or SE winds to the west of the boundary. This boundary is currently located around the western Pamlico Sound/Cape Lookout vicinity. Showers and a few thunderstorms near this boundary will impact the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, as well as the western Pamlico Sound through sunset.

The boundary then lifts north later tonight and Saturday, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20kt developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late Saturday night, but the better chance of 25kt+ winds looks to hold off until Sunday.

For the coastal waters, seas of 3-5 ft will be common through Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 4-6 ft Saturday night within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 445 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop Sunday and continue through Monday with N to NE winds around 20-25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. Conditions gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday with seas expected to drop below 6 ft during the day Tuesday. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.

HYDROLOGY
As of 145 PM Friday...

Briefly intense rainfall rates will occur with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the risk of flooding appears LOW (<5% chance for the area at large). Late tonight into Saturday night, there is the potential for multiple round of thunderstorms, with an area average of 0.75"-1.50" of rain.
However, it appears likely that a front will stall west to east for a time on Saturday, with the potential for convection to train along the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we'll be closely monitoring this potential.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Davis Slough
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Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:31 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
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Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

Rodanthe
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Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
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Rodanthe, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, Tide feet

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