Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:03PM Saturday August 17, 2019 11:18 PM EDT (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 180045
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
850 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A weak surface trough will remain across the area through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak area of weak low pressure along the se
coast will track northeast along the nc coast late tonight and into
Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 640 pm Saturday...

widely scattered thunderstorms were lingering over the NE piedmont
around louisburg, and over the SW piedmont around salisbury,
otherwise little going on around the region. With outflow boundaries
extending from near charlotte to raleigh to rocky mount, additional
isolated thunderstorms may develop in these areas. This region has
some residual mlcapes in the 2000 j kg range, but no shear. Any
showers storms will be pulse (last only 30 minutes to an hour) and
show little movement (south at 5-10 mph).

Overnight tonight an area of low pressure will move up the coast
brining rain to areas east of our WFO but for the most part
precipitation should remain on the eastern fringes of our forecast
area. Expect another round of fog and low stratus with the main
focus areas from us 1 eastward. Several hours of low stratus and or
low visibilities can be expected in the hours surrounding daybreak.

Short term Sunday and Sunday night
As of 230 pm Saturday...

in the wake of the exiting low to the northeast, Sunday should
remain mostly quiet with relative subsidence over the area. That
being said, heating of the day will contribute to some afternoon
instability that could result in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Severe chances look meager at this point. High
temperatures will be warmer that today with low to mid 90s expected
area wide. Lows overnight in the lower 70s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 310 pm Saturday...

mon-tue: what may be a tropical or subtropical low will be heading
ne away from nc early Mon morning, leaving just a weak surface
trough over the foothills and W piedmont. Weak mid level flow holds
over the gulf southeast mid south states, within ill-defined
troughing sandwiched between deepening ridges over the desert
southwest and atlantic. Pw will stay above normal over central nc,
although the greatest anomalies will hold to our se. This may result
in a scenario in which the widespread convection stays locked near
the coast or along a sea breeze drifting just a short distance
inland (based on the mean low level wind), with more scattered
activity further nw. The higher pw axis will be shunted a bit to the
nw Tue as the atlantic ridge expands westward, and as a result the
higher pops should push more inland Tue as compared to mon, with the
models depicting a ssw low level jet over the eastern half of our
area late tue. With no notable large scale mechanisms to force
ascent or descent, will stick with a persistence-leaning pattern of
isolated pops night into morning followed by scattered to numerous
showers and storms from late morning through mid evening. Continued
above normal temps, with highs in the lower-mid 90s Mon and around
90 lower 90s Tue (greater cloud cover). Lows near 70 to the lower
70s both nights.

Wed-sat: a mid level polar low over NE manitoba Tue will drift
across ontario quebec to newfoundland labrador through sat. A piece
of shortwave energy diving into the trough base will swing through
the st lawrence valley late Thu through fri, pushing a cold front
sse toward nc. While this is an energetic system, it appears to
still be displaced too far north to propel the front through nc,
particularly given the rarity of summertime cold frontal passage in
nc. But we should still see the piedmont trough holding in place,
perhaps enhanced by a southward-propagating outflow emanating from
prefrontal convection to our W and n. The atlantic ridge will
continue to pump atlantic and gulf moisture into the carolinas
through the low levels, with pws maximizing across our area from
late Thu through Fri as the front approaches and likely stalls out
to n. Will carry the highest pops during this period. By sat, while
we'll retain the weak surface trough over the foothills with sse to
ssw flow over central nc, the westward-expanding atlantic ridge will
result in an uptick in mid level heights over our area. But pws will
remain high especially across our S and se, so will keep good chance
of diurnal pops sat. Weak flow and high moisture will support a
continued threat of slow-moving and training cells during the wed-
sat time frame. Thicknesses will hold above normal with plenty of
clouds, so will keep temps near to slightly above normal through
late week. -gih

Aviation 00z Sunday through Wednesday
As of 840 pm Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: convection has dissipated this evening with the
loss of day time heating. Dry weather is generally expected to
continue tonight. Another round of stratus and some fog will likely
develop into the ifr lifr categories between ~07z and 14z (with kgso
and kint possibly MVFRVFR). A return toVFR conditions expected
Sunday. Isolated storm again in the afternoon, chances about 20
percent at any one given TAF site.

Long term: in the wake of the exiting low, Sunday should be fairly
quiet withVFR conditions predominate. Through midweek will remain
unsettled with a few waves coming northward out of the gulf of
mexico and a frontal system developing off to the northwest. Expect
periods of convection with fog low stratus prevalent at night.

Equipment
Over the weekend, flights will be conducted on 12z Saturday and
12z Sunday.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Badgett ellis
short term... Ellis
long term... Hartfield
aviation... Badgett bsd
equipment... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi28 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F72°F90%1015.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair75°F75°F100%1015.9 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair70°F69°F100%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW3--SW5Calm--CalmSE3Calm--3Calm3CalmSE6SE8S9S10
G16
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1 day ago------------CalmCalmNE4------CalmSE7CalmS6E17
G23
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2 days agoS6W5SW4SW4CalmSE3CalmSE4S5S5CalmCalm33Calm3S64SE5SE3E6S6----

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:23 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.71.11.31.51.51.31.10.80.50.30.10.10.50.91.21.31.31.210.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.