Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:02PM Sunday December 8, 2019 9:59 PM EST (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 090221 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 920 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure and related coastal front will track northward across eastern NC tonight, while high pressure will otherwise continue to extend across the interior Carolinas and middle Atlantic. Cold air damming will also result, with a related wedge front that will retreat slowly northwestward into the Piedmont on Monday, then stall over the northwest Piedmont Monday night. Unseasonably moist air will remain in place until the passage of a cold front Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 920 PM Sunday .

Coastal front has changed very little in position over the last 6 hours, extending across eastern North Carolina south into the Atlantic Ocean. Think that the current western edge of precipitation bisecting the Triangle may be as far west as rain makes it overnight. Only minor changes were made to the forecast, primarily to slightly tweak temperatures and dewpoints to incorporate some of the 00Z NAM and do a better job showing high clouds moving in from the west to eventually make all locations mostly cloudy to overcast. With such a moist airmass, especially across the eastern half, will continue the mention of fog in most locations.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM Sunday .

Initially quasi-zonal, srn-stream-dominated flow across the Carolinas will transition to a highly amplified flow pattern through 12Z Tue. That flow and amplification will be characterized by a full- latitude, positively-tilted trough spanning multiple branches of the upr jet from a polar vortex near Hudson Bay swwd to a prominent srn stream perturbation near the Rio Grande, with deep swly flow aloft directed downstream across the the ern US.

At the surface, cold air damming high pressure will have become well- entrenched across the interior Carolinas and middle Atlantic, including throughout cntl NC early Mon. A related wedge front and following milder and more humid air will retreat slowly nwwd into the Piedmont through the afternoon, then stall over the nw Piedmont late in the afternoon through Monday night.

Areas of fog, some dense, and light rain and drizzle will characterize the retreating CAD airmass, while scattering of the low clouds and moderating temperatures through the 50s, to lwr-mid 60s in the far ern/sern Coastal Plain, will occur in the warm sector. Temperatures are very likely to hold in the 40s over the nw Piedmont Mon and reach calendar day highs only in the upr 40s to lwr 50s prior to midnight. And there will be marked gradient between that regime and near 60 surface temperatures/dewpoints within a several mile corridor to the southeast - likely near or between INT and GSO. Low clouds and areas of fog will likely envelop all of cntl NC once Mon night; and typical of CAD, temperatures will remain nearly steady from evening onward.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 241 PM Sunday .

Busy weather ahead later in the week, starting with Tuesday's cold frontal passage and subsequent Canadian ridge across the area. Today's 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance are in agreement that Tuesday should begin dry, with precip holding off around the Triad til 18Z and just about making it into the Triangle closer to 21-00Z. This is a bit of a slowdown from previous model forecasts a few days ago which has FROPA earlier in the day, but the slower progression of the front is supported by the NAEFS and ECENS. Rainfall with the front will range from nearly an inch in the far northwestern portion of the CWA to around a third of an inch in the Sandhills and points southeast. Obviously the big story will be the drop in temperatures which will see nearly 20 degrees slashed from Tuesday's highs to Wednesday's highs, followed by another 5-10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday. Thursday afternoon's temps will struggle to get out of the upper 30s in the Triad and even some spots along the NC/VA border will struggle to reach 40.

Forecast uncertainty remains high with the late week storm. Of all the deterministic models, the GFS remains the fastest with the onset of precip whereas its ensemble system is slower and more in line with EC ENS and Canadian deterministic/ensemble solutions. With the strong arctic high in place over the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, the GFS's early onset is problematic as strong overrunning with ongoing CAD setup could lead to a brief period of mixed precip right at the onset before WAA nudges temperatures above the freezing mark. Thankfully the GFS (while still the fastest), has backed off in its timing a bit with precip holding off until just before daybreak Friday morning. With very dry surface dewpoints in place and evaporational cooling to consider, I'm hesitant to erode the cold air too quickly and I've included a slight chance of rain or freezing rain in the Triad right at the onset just before daybreak Friday. Mixed precip should be very short lived and quickly turn to rain later in the morning hours with rain eventually overspreading the entire area later in the day Friday afternoon. Nearly all guidance showing widespread rainfall through early Saturday morning and PoPs were only adjusted temporally based on today's 12Z guidance. The overall pattern should dry out a bit next weekend with temperatures once again hovering at or slightly below normal.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 725 PM Sunday .

Aviation conditions will deteriorate through the night and early Monday as an area of low pressure moves along the NC coast. IFR conditions are already spreading inland across eastern NC (FAY and RWI), with light rain and increasingly northeast winds. Expect ceiling to continue to lower further west, with higher confidence in IFR/LIFR and the potential for dense fog at RDU and RWI/FAY, though models indicate fog will be possible at GSO/INT as early as 09Z. The main area of rain in the coastal plain will move off to the northeast tonight, but low ceilings and patchy light rain or drizzle will continue across central on Monday, with ceilings beginning to scatter at FAY and RWI by early afternoon (perhaps at RWI as well) before settling back to IFR or LIFR Monday evening. Low level wind shear will be threat, primarily at GSO/INT/RDU by midday Monday as a strong southwesterly flow spread across the area within a strong stable inversion at 1-2k ft.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to continue or redevelop Monday night, then linger into early Tuesday. A cold front and associated rain will then sweep across the region Tuesday night, with following VFR conditions expected Wednesday through Thursday. A coastal storm will result in another high probability of rain and sub-VFR conditions Friday-Friday night.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . MWS NEAR TERM . Green SHORT TERM . MWS LONG TERM . Leins AVIATION . Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi68 minENE 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F43°F93%1026 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi64 minN 04.00 miHeavy Drizzle46°F46°F100%1025.7 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi64 minN 03.00 miHeavy Drizzle43°F42°F100%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E6NE3CalmCalmCalmN4Calm3N3NE4NW4NE7NE4CalmNE4N4NE3E5N4E7E6NE3NE4
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N3NE8NE8NE10E12E7NE8E10NE7NE54NE5NE6NE3NE4NE5NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4W5SW7SW5SW8SW8SW10SW8W4W5S5SW7SW3W5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 12:18 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:43 PM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:33 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.210.70.50.20.1-00.10.50.91.11.31.31.20.90.70.50.30.10.10.30.71

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.