Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Raleigh, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday July 4, 2020 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raleigh, NC
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location: 35.79, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 041804 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 204 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A backdoor front over the Chesapeake Bay this morning will move southwestward into southeastern VA and northeastern NC through this evening, then dissipate over central NC through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1135 AM Saturday .

A shortwave trough centered over srn new England, and trailing positive tilt trough axis extending swwd into nrn VA, will move off the middle Atlantic coast through this afternoon. 12Z RAOBs depicted a continued prominent subsidence inversion centered around 650 mb across the interior srn middle Atlantic from RNK to GSO, and less so nearer the influence of the shortwave trough, from WAL to MHX. Weak 500 mb height falls of 10-20 meters accompanying that trough axis will continue down the srn middle Atlantic coast this afternoon, with generally neutral height tendency and contribution to forcing for ascent over cntl NC. Weak CAA at 500 mb will also accompany the trough axis and cause a preceding relative warm layer at 500 mb from NC wwd to the lwr OH Valley (minus 5 to 6 C) to cool a degree or two C from VA sewd into nern NC this afternoon. The forcing for ascent and cooling aloft will be relatively maximized from the Tidewater of VA and nern NC swwd into the nrn Coastal Plain of NC.

At the surface, a weak backdoor cold front was analyzed from a ~1010 mb low about 350 miles east of WAL wswwd top the srn tip of the DelMarVA, then nnwwd across the Chesapeake Bay, ern MD, and e-cntl PA and NY. That boundary can be identified by an area of post- frontal, sub-VFR ceilings along the middle Atlantic coast and CAA evident as backing winds in regional VWP data in the same area, behind a modest 925 mb temperature gradient (~5 C) in 12Z-observed 925 mb data. An outflow boundary from convection over the nrn middle Atlantic Fri afternoon and evening immediately preceded the front and was evident in overnight 11-3.9 um satellite imagery over VA, with extrapolation of that feature to now invof the nrn Outer Banks wwd along the state line of sern VA and nern NC. A weak Appalachian- lee trough and wind shift extended from there wswwd across n-cntl NC, from near ECG to RDU to HKY. The backdoor cold front will have little synoptic support to advance much farther swwd, as the foregoing, parent shortwave trough moves offshore; and it will instead be propelled swwd by mesoscale influences from the Chesapeake Bay/sea breeze amidst prevailing nely flow behind the front, and subsequently outflow.

Those boundaries and associated convergence and low level moisture pooling along and immediately behind them will contribute to the development of moderate instability and likely convective initiation across sern VA and nern NC this afternoon. Other, more-isolated development will be possible along the lee trough, though likely limited by a mixing out of surface dewpoints into the lwr-mid 60s amidst a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the boundaries to the northeast. The subsidence inversion, and considerable dry air aloft and entrainment, will also limit the intensity of any isolated cells that overcome the inversion. Nonetheless, any cells that do form will do so in a high DCAPE environment between 1000-15000 J/kg; and they will consequently pose a risk of localized, strong to damaging wind gusts.

It will otherwise be hot again, with near persistence to slightly hotter high temperatures mostly in the lwr-middle 90s, given observed 850 mb temperatures of 18-19 C. Given the aforementioned mixing out of surface moisture in the warm sector during peak heating, Heat Index values are expected to top out between 93 and 99 degrees and be only marginally hazardous.

Tonight, the combination of post-frontal ely flow and rain-cooled air/outflow from what will likely be the greatest coverage/ concentration of convection over sern VA/nern NC, and resultant locally maximized near surface relative humidity values there, will favor the development of areas of stratus and/or fog across the ne Piedmont and nrn-cntl Coastal Plain through Sun morning, with low temperatures generally 68 to 73 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 240 AM Saturday .

PW and peak MLCAPE will rise in both magnitude and areal coverage by Sunday, with PW inching up to above 1.5" across all of central NC and moderate MLCAPE over much of the area Sun afternoon. Low and mid level flow remains quite weak, however, so any storms Sun will form on very indistinct and meandering boundaries with limited upscale growth and maintenance due to the poor wind field. Will follow a fairly typical summer precip pattern, with pops starting by early afternoon, peaking late in the day before decreasing late evening to early overnight as the near-surface layer slowly stabilizes. Thicknesses are expected to remain largely near to above normal, except over NE sections which will be under the influence of weak high pressure drifting offshore of the VA Tidewater region. Expect highs to be slightly lowered from today due to a bit greater mid and high cloud cover resulting from convective debris, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, coolest NE. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM Saturday .

The medium-range models develop a low over the Deep South/ARKLATEX by Monday. Otherwise, the flow aloft will be somewhat diffuse, with the aforementioned low slowly drifting east-northeast and amplifying a weak trough before moving east through the region mid- to late- week. However, specifics with respect to the evolution of the low/trough are uncertain, resulting in a lower than normal forecast confidence Thursday onward. At the surface, south-southeasterly flow into the area off the Atlantic will persist, with high pressure to the east and relatively low pressure to the west. There is not very good agreement with the development and subsequent progression of a low developing in response to the low aloft, thus confidence with exactly if and when and how it would impact central NC is low at this time. Regardless of the coverage, still expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be diurnally driven and best chances to be across the southern portions of the area. Temperatures should be within a category or two of normal through the period, with the best chance for below normal highs on the days with more extensive cloud cover and convection. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 200 PM Saturday .

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along a myriad of weak surface boundaries over and near cntl NC through this evening, with the relatively greatest concentration at Piedmont sites and RWI. Associated, aggregate outflow will likely modulate a synoptic surface front over sern VA and nern NC this afternoon swwd into cntl NC tonight. The combination of post-frontal ely flow and rain-cooled air/outflow, and maximized near surface relative humidity, will favor the development of LIFR-MVFR stratus and/or fog from particularly from RWI and points newd to the coast late tonight-Sun morning, some of which could linger for an hour or so after 12Z as the moist layer is diurnally heated/lifted.

Outlook: Humid, sely flow off the sw N. Atlantic/Gulf Stream will increase the probability of morning stratus/fog early to mid next week, along with mainly diurnal convection whose coverage may be enhanced by the proximity of a broad and weak area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . MWS NEAR TERM . MWS SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC10 mi65 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F66°F43%1012.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC22 mi61 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F64°F39%1012.9 hPa
Franklin County Airport, NC23 mi61 minN 310.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F68°F46%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5NE5N6NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3NW5SW4NE5NW4
1 day agoN8N6NE10NE7NE8NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5343S4E7
2 days agoSW8--SW7W5W6W5--CalmCalmE6E3NE43NE3NE4NE5CalmNE6NE6E6NE8NE10NE7N7

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.41.61.61.41.10.90.60.3000.30.711.21.21.10.80.60.40.2-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.